Author Topic: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)  (Read 32737 times)

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #425 on: October 29, 2020, 04:20:09 PM »
I know it's not the same geezer, the one I linked's in his fifties now. It's just that he made a living from the game without ever actually playing one. Money quite literally for nothing  ;D .

got it now, I read it wrong ! cheers
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #426 on: November 21, 2020, 10:55:43 PM »
Dean Henderson wants to go on loan in Jan so he can play in Euros. Leeds and Brighton in for him - The Sun

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #427 on: January 30, 2021, 09:09:20 AM »
Been meaning to reboot this thread for most of the month but given the lack of activity it hasn't seemed worthwhile.

Going into the last couple of days of the window it is worth recapping on what's happened.

Premier League

The most significant action has been outbound very few permanent deals with loans being the order of the day.

The highlights are as follows:

Arsenal
Have bought Martin Ødegaard in from Real Madrid on loan with no option to buy and finally moved Ozil on to Fennerbache. Not sure what to make of the Ødegaard deal not sure why maybe they have the notion that Real will sell in the summer and they might steal a march on the opposition.

Frankly I am relieved that Ozil has gone, though I do worry about what the small army of sports journalists employed to keep me abreast of the situation are going to do now.

West Ham

The Hammers have been busy sold Haller to Ajax for £20m which is one of the bigger deals of the window. They are taking a bit of a bath there but things haven't worked out for him at the London Stadium. This does leave them a bit short of strikers so the obvious answer is bring in Jesse Lingard on loan, no I have no clue either. 

Aston Villa

Have made another good signing in Morgan Sansom from Marseille. I am a long term admirer of the player who is a very good all round midfielder and I think he is an upgrade on McGinn. As a consequence they have let Hourihane go out on loan to Swansea.

Man United

Have signed Diallo from Atalanta for a staggering £19m. Thought to be latest hot talent off the Atalanta production line he has only just made his first team debut and United have pounced. We will see how this pans out.

Crystal Palace

Have completed what might turn out to be the best piece of business of the window with Jean-Philippe Mateta joining on loan with an option to buy from Mainz. Young and maybe a bit raw but there is a talent there with a lot of upside potential and he hasn't cost them a fortune.

We can see you sneaking out

January is often the month when players that arrive with much fanfare are quietly let go. This month is no exception Slimani, Ighalo and Drinkwater all leaving for pastures new the latter on loan obviously.

Elsewhere in the top 5 leagues nothing much is happening, the Haller deal is the biggest and it must be sometime since a Dutch team spent the biggest fee in a window.

It noticeable with one or two exceptions the players that have moved for significant fees are generally young i.e. under 25 with very obvious upside potential.

A few have caught my eye Dominik Szoboszlai traveling the well worn path from RB Salzbrg to RB Leipzig. Dennis Man has finally got a big move from  FCSB to Parma surprised someone a little bit further up the food chain hasn't taken the plunge before now.

Maybe this window is significant for what hasn't happened or not yet anyway. Liverpool haven't bought a Centre Half the struggling clubs haven't strengthened and the French fire sale hasn't materialised to any significant degree. This obviously could change in the next day or so but maybe financial reality has finally caught up with football.










« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 11:07:08 AM by Standaman »
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #428 on: January 30, 2021, 10:27:22 AM »
Been meaning to reboot this thread for most the month but given the lack of activity it hasn't seemed worthwhile.......maybe financial reality has finally caught up with football.

That was a well presented post Stan', I won't be holding my breath in anticipation of the last point coming to pass over a longer time frame though.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #429 on: January 30, 2021, 11:09:39 AM »
Thanks Stan, great post as per usual.

I find it fascinating how loans are becoming much more common place these days. Is there a reason for this? I'm not really up to date with the finances of football but i know there are some fantastic posters here that often have good insight on it, I just don't process figures and maths all that well.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #430 on: January 30, 2021, 11:35:35 AM »
I agree that the Mateta signing at the rumoured price is a great deal for Palace.  Him and Maupay were both in the french second division at a similar time, yet one cost over £20m after a season in the championship and the others just been scooped up for less than £15m after a decent stint in the bundesliga.

The potential upside is huge, and if he does flop I think there is still a decent market for him in France and Germany. 

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #431 on: January 30, 2021, 02:22:32 PM »
Thanks Stan, great post as per usual.

I find it fascinating how loans are becoming much more common place these days. Is there a reason for this? I'm not really up to date with the finances of football but i know there are some fantastic posters here that often have good insight on it, I just don't process figures and maths all that well.

Loans have grown as a proportion of deals in recent years there are several reasons some of them financial but also because of the developmental model used by the bigger clubs.

The Italian giants have always used the loan market to farm out younger players across Serie A and B. This model has been adopted by Chelsea and Man City in the Premier League and it allows those clubs to stockpile talent. The big Spanish sides have tended to use their B teams but still loan out young players e.g. Martin Ødegaard who even at 17 might not have been stretched by B team football.

The other big reason why clubs go down the route is trying de-risk transfers. Where a player is changing leagues and or making a step up a loan to buy gives the buying club the comfort of trying before they buy. Equally the loan market is a bit of a safety net on transfers in general and this is where the accounting and maths comes into play.

To demonstrate let's create an artificial example. Carlos Kickaball 23 is the rising star for mid table La Liga team Real San Miguel and impresses a number of Premier League clubs including mid level team Arkell's United. A £20m deal is agreed and Carlos agrees a £50k a week 5 year contract (he was earning £10k a week in Spain). He is costing Arkell's £6.5m a year (£4m in depreciation and £2.5m in wages.

However Arkell's are confident that they have a star and could easily sell young Carlos for £40m in just a couple of years time and the wage is nowhere near their top earner.

Things do not go well for Carlos he doesn't settle Arkell's change the manager mid way through the season and he finds himself frozen out. To compound matters Carlos is desperately homesick. Arkell's know this isn't working and the obvious thing to is ship Carlos back to Spain. One small problem mid level La Liga teams don't spend £20m on players nor do they pay them wages at anywhere near £2.5m a year. Now Arkell's could just take the hit pay up the contract and take a loss on the fee.

The only problem is all that cost lands in one smelly lump into one years accounts. Lets say they lose £10m on the fee and buying out the contract costs £4m (everyone is being very reasonable here). Arkell's finance director is a deeply unhappy man and so is their manager because all of that is coming out of this year's budget.

Maybe there is a solution, a loan to Turkish club (WTAF!!) Effesspor. How does it work? Arkell's are stuck for £6.5m a year almost regardless. However instead of crystallising £14m of losses they get a loan fee of £1m to offset against the £4m of depreciation and it get's better. Effesspor are happy to pay half Carlos's wages which is as good as any Spanish club but because of the favourable tax regime to get Carlos to his net position the overall wage needs to be 20% less so this saves Arkell's nearly £3m in wages. To move Carlos on either costs £14m to sell today or £2.5m to loan out, what are you going to do?

The above is hugely simplified but that is often why players are loaned rather than sold.





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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #432 on: January 30, 2021, 02:51:11 PM »
Loans have grown as a proportion of deals in recent years there are several reasons some of them financial but also because of the developmental model used by the bigger clubs.

The Italian giants have always used the loan market to farm out younger players across Serie A and B. This model has been adopted by Chelsea and Man City in the Premier League and it allows those clubs to stockpile talent. The big Spanish sides have tended to use their B teams but still loan out young players e.g. Martin Ødegaard who even at 17 might not have been stretched by B team football.

The other big reason why clubs go down the route is trying de-risk transfers. Where a player is changing leagues and or making a step up a loan to buy gives the buying club the comfort of trying before they buy. Equally the loan market is a bit of a safety net on transfers in general and this is where the accounting and maths comes into play.

To demonstrate let's create an artificial example. Carlos Kickaball 23 is the rising star for mid table La Liga team Real San Miguel and impresses a number of Premier League clubs including mid level team Arkell's United. A £20m deal is agreed and Carlos agrees a £50k a week 5 year contract (he was earning £10k a week in Spain). He is costing Arkell's £6.5m a year (£4m in depreciation and £2.5m in wages.

However Arkell's are confident that they have a star and could easily sell young Carlos for £40m in just a couple of years time and the wage is nowhere near their top earner.

Things do not go well for Carlos he doesn't settle Arkell's change the manager mid way through the season and he finds himself frozen out. To compound matters Carlos is desperately homesick. Arkell's know this isn't working and the obvious thing to is ship Carlos back to Spain. One small problem mid level La Liga teams don't spend £20m on players nor do they pay them wages at anywhere near £2.5m a year. Now Arkell's could just take the hit pay up the contract and take a loss on the fee.

The only problem is all that cost lands in one smelly lump into one years accounts. Lets say they lose £10m on the fee and buying out the contract costs £4m (everyone is being very reasonable here). Arkell's finance director is a deeply unhappy man and so is their manager because all of that is coming out of this year's budget.

Maybe there is a solution, a loan to Turkish club (WTAF!!) Effesspor. How does it work? Arkell's are stuck for £6.5m a year almost regardless. However instead of crystallising £14m of losses they get a loan fee of £1m to offset against the £4m of depreciation and it get's better. Effesspor are happy to pay half Carlos's wages which is as good as any Spanish club but because of the favourable tax regime to get Carlos to his net position the overall wage needs to be 20% less so this saves Arkell's nearly £3m in wages. To move Carlos on either costs £14m to sell today or £2.5m to loan out, what are you going to do?

The above is hugely simplified but that is often why players are loaned rather than sold.
That’s simplified? Jeez!!
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #433 on: January 31, 2021, 09:48:45 AM »
Tottenham and England left-back Danny Rose's transfer to Trabzonspor could fall through after the Turkish side admitted their move for the 30-year-old would be "very difficult" to complete because of Covid-19 restrictions. (Talksport)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #434 on: January 31, 2021, 09:49:41 AM »
Everton's Turkish striker Cenk Tosun, 29 will be in Istanbul on Sunday to complete a loan move to former club Besiktas. (Sky Sports)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #435 on: January 31, 2021, 10:22:00 AM »
Leicester have entered the race to sign Ainsley Maitland-Niles on loan from Arsenal. (Source: @David_Ornstein)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #436 on: January 31, 2021, 02:32:23 PM »
Leicester have entered the race to sign Ainsley Maitland-Niles on loan from Arsenal. (Source: @David_Ornstein)

It’s a better move for him than coming to the hawthorns
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #437 on: January 31, 2021, 04:05:29 PM »
DEAL DONE: Bayer Leverkusen have confirmed the signing of Demarai Gray on a contract until 2022. Fee around £2m. (Source: @bayer04_en)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #438 on: January 31, 2021, 04:27:33 PM »
Tottenham have reached an agreement with Watford for the transfer of Maurizio Pochettino. (Source: @SpursOfficial)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #439 on: January 31, 2021, 06:50:00 PM »
Thanks Stan, great post as per usual.

I find it fascinating how loans are becoming much more common place these days. Is there a reason for this? I'm not really up to date with the finances of football but i know there are some fantastic posters here that often have good insight on it, I just don't process figures and maths all that well.

The really simple  reason is that a loan is not nearly as big a financial risk as a purchase. If things go wrong the impact on the club taking the guy on loan is smaller. It also gives a chance to try before you buy of course.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #440 on: February 01, 2021, 03:59:04 PM »
Josh King on his was to Fulham, hearing that the window has pretty much exploded today, even as far down as league 2. Not a good luck and shows how badly English football is run.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #441 on: February 01, 2021, 04:01:26 PM »
Fulham also in talks with Josh Maja as well.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #442 on: February 01, 2021, 05:52:13 PM »
Josh King on his was to Fulham, hearing that the window has pretty much exploded today, even as far down as league 2. Not a good luck and shows how badly English football is run.

Wouldn't disagree with the notion that the game is badly run. However the  deadline dash isn't a symptom. With so much football played in January clubs won't release to  the last minute because of the possibility of injury and as often said players with multiple options won't commit either.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #443 on: February 01, 2021, 05:55:54 PM »
Maybe, but when you look at the amount of kids who are going out on loan today who haven’t played a minute of football in January, I really struggle to work out why clubs are so conservative and unable to see it was obvious they could have been released earlier.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #444 on: February 01, 2021, 06:19:29 PM »
Palma have signed Joshua Zirkzee now as well. Another who id have though may have attracted interest from a bigger club, especially at £15m.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #445 on: February 01, 2021, 06:34:38 PM »
Palma have signed Joshua Zirkzee now as well. Another who id have though may have attracted interest from a bigger club, especially at £15m.

Loan with option to buy I think Parma could yet go down so probably don't want to commit to that sort of fee Serie B
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #446 on: February 01, 2021, 08:08:32 PM »
Everton agree fee with Bournemouth for Josh King

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #447 on: February 01, 2021, 08:17:09 PM »
Everton agree fee with Bournemouth for Josh King

Rather them than Fulham.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #448 on: February 01, 2021, 08:27:56 PM »
Fulham getting Maja
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #449 on: February 01, 2021, 09:56:23 PM »
Telegraph reporting King is going to Fulham and not Everton. At one point today, it looked like we had possibly done enough to atleast get ahead of them, but King and Maja could be decent signings and give them more of a goal threat.
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