Author Topic: Long Term Plan  (Read 1793 times)

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seteefeet

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Long Term Plan
« on: April 30, 2021, 09:30:23 AM »
This gets a great deal of debate so thought it worth a thread of it's own.

What do we define as a long term plan?

Holding onto a younger manager rather than sacking them at the first sign of trouble? Not for me, the manager is but one cog in a bigger wheel and, let's face it, any young manager who achieves success here would be picked off by a richer vulture. We, literally, can't afford, to watch a manager fail in the hope that they will come good. That being said, I still believe the timing of Darren Moore's sacking was beyond stupid and completely derailed our season

Building from bottom up? One philosophy right through the Academy to first team, and bringing our kids through, is a fantastic idea, it's dependant on two things though.
1) Having kids good enough to achieve the level we are at. This is extremely difficult at Champ level and virtually impossible at Prem because the amount of kids that reach that peak early on is very small.
2) If we do find kids that have that potential, they, again will be picked off by richer vultures due to the corrupt system that, not only does nothing to protect against it, but seems to actively promote it.

I would argue that we have had  the same, very successful, long term plan in place for many years and that is one of financial stability.
We don't overspend, our wage structure is well managed and we were pioneers of flexdown contracts.
This, however, has had a two way effect.
It holds us back when we get promoted but
It makes us incredibly strong when we get relegated.

This means we are in a sort of limbo, not good enough to stay up, too good to go down.
The only time we have had any prolonged success (in terms of staying up) was under Pulis and Hodgson, two pragmatic, no nonsense  managers.
That's why I think we have to accept that the ideology of a young, upcoming manager, playing flowing football, is, unfortunately, fanciful at the very least.

This may not sit well with many but, as the financial dice are not loaded in our favour, when it comes to the corruption of the greed league, our best chance of a long term plan seeing fruition may not be with a 30 something Cruyff wannabe, it's more likely a 66 year old, weathered old warhorse.

leeiswba

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2021, 11:44:40 AM »
Every one wants a long term plan apparently, but when we get a young coach in and we are maybe 10th in October the same people will want him gone

mulliganstired

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2021, 12:03:41 PM »
That would be a good idea

BB74

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2021, 12:04:43 PM »
Every one wants a long term plan apparently, but when we get a young coach in and we are maybe 10th in October the same people will want him gone

Or an ambitious young coach will get poached. Live for the season we’re in I say!

seteefeet

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2021, 12:09:24 PM »
Every one wants a long term plan apparently, but when we get a young coach in and we are maybe 10th in October the same people will want him gone
Seems most people see a long term plan as exclusive to a young coach, however, our bet stints in the prem have been with old dudes.



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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2021, 12:45:19 PM »
Seems most people see a long term plan as exclusive to a young coach, however, our bet stints in the prem have been with old dudes.

And yet ironically enough our longest Premier League winning run of four games came under the stewardship of a relatively youngish coach who had the misfortune to look like a decidedly lived in older dude  ;D .
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2021, 12:51:36 PM »
Identify a way we want to play and stick to it. Then recruit coaches and players to fit this. We've lurched from one extreme to the other over the years. Mowbray to Pulis is as extreme as it can get. I'd like to see us picking up young talented players that we can improve rather than signing or keep giving contracts to has beans' as we've done so often. Each summer we should be adding 2/3 quality starters to improve the side. Sounds easy doesn't it.  :D

leeiswba

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2021, 12:58:38 PM »
Seems most people see a long term plan as exclusive to a young coach, however, our bet stints in the prem have been with old dudes.

That’s why I’m happy with Big Sam, hopefully can take us back then least we have someone who knows what is needed in terms of players & tactics as soon as we get up there for a change instead of having to make a change in the middle of the first season I.e. Di Matteo & Bilic or stick with them and finish bottom like with Mowbray.

leeiswba

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2021, 01:06:11 PM »
Another thing is what club does have a long term plan, heard people say teams like Leicester but that’s only because they are doing ok at the moment. Come November if they are 14th/15th Rogers will probably get the boot. Long term only works if people/ideas are kept when things aren’t going great and I’m not sure of a team who work like this.

Norwich maybe?

seteefeet

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2021, 01:29:36 PM »
Another thing is what club does have a long term plan, heard people say teams like Leicester but that’s only because they are doing ok at the moment. Come November if they are 14th/15th Rogers will probably get the boot. Long term only works if people/ideas are kept when things aren’t going great and I’m not sure of a team who work like this.

Norwich maybe?
I doubt Farke will be offered the same amount of time and patience should they perform the same as they did last time out

Our destiny is determined by money. not personnel, therefore the long term plan is a financial one. No manager will be given money that isn't available but won't be given time if that year's objective is seemingly failing. Tough gig but there's no real alternative.

If we start overspending, on signings and wages, chasing the Prem riches, and fail, we risk doing a Forest or, worse still, a Sunderland.
If we sell assets but don't invest back into the squad or waste our parachute payments, we risk midtable obscurity.

It's a financial balancing act which, up to now, we have handled incredibly well and it seems an awful lot like a long term plan to me.

Standaman

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2021, 04:43:52 PM »
I am not too sure how many clubs have identifiable long term plans.

 I think there some where the short-term plan has worked and we credit a club and it's ownership with having a long term vision that isn't really there. For instance Swansea City were being held up as the model for small to medium sized clubs. At their peak I remember having a conversation with a Swansea fan who was working for a football analytics consultancy. He was very clear that while the sucess they were having was nice there wasn't much backing it up. He was proved right when the project hit the skids.

The key unfortunately is long term stable ownership. It is difficult to commit to say a 5 year plan for something that you don't plan on owning in 2 years time. I guess we had some sort of long term plan until the point Peace wanted to sell up. Lai might have started with one but that got swept away by circumstance as much as anything else.

Those few clubs that might have some sort of longer term vision for instance Norwich, Brentford, and Brighton do have stable long-term committed owners.

Were Lai to hand me the keys tomorrow what would I do? Well not being the a multi-billionaire I have to get the club onto a stable self financing footing regardless of the outcome on the pitch (and you thought Peace was penny pinching).

 If it is a long-term plan it has to be bottom up the first team squad is the outcome of a long term plan not the thing that drives it.

The focus has to be on player development through coaching sports science and analytics. We have to improve and develop players and that does mean clearing pathways into the first team. Yes we will get players picked off but only for a fee. In terms of first team coach it does imply one that works with younger players rather than one that is a short term fix.



 
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johnny Cash

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2021, 05:22:15 PM »
It does seem that when clubs are lauded to some extent have just had things click for a 3-5 year spell and ultimately the status quo returns eventually.

There is a lot of movement by clubs in the championship and below but the only club that really looks like it might have have really changed it’s position in the pecking order without oil money is Leicester in the top flight.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2021, 05:23:59 PM by johnny Cash »

zippyandbungle

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2021, 07:43:44 PM »
I am not too sure how many clubs have identifiable long term plans.

 I think there some where the short-term plan has worked and we credit a club and it's ownership with having a long term vision that isn't really there. For instance Swansea City were being held up as the model for small to medium sized clubs. At their peak I remember having a conversation with a Swansea fan who was working for a football analytics consultancy. He was very clear that while the sucess they were having was nice there wasn't much backing it up. He was proved right when the project hit the skids.

The key unfortunately is long term stable ownership. It is difficult to commit to say a 5 year plan for something that you don't plan on owning in 2 years time. I guess we had some sort of long term plan until the point Peace wanted to sell up. Lai might have started with one but that got swept away by circumstance as much as anything else.

Those few clubs that might have some sort of longer term vision for instance Norwich, Brentford, and Brighton do have stable long-term committed owners.

Were Lai to hand me the keys tomorrow what would I do? Well not being the a multi-billionaire I have to get the club onto a stable self financing footing regardless of the outcome on the pitch (and you thought Peace was penny pinching).

 If it is a long-term plan it has to be bottom up the first team squad is the outcome of a long term plan not the thing that drives it.

The focus has to be on player development through coaching sports science and analytics. We have to improve and develop players and that does mean clearing pathways into the first team. Yes we will get players picked off but only for a fee. In terms of first team coach it does imply one that works with younger players rather than one that is a short term fix.
Slightly off but wasn’t their plan....Michu, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player come from left field and become a clubs fulcrum so fast....then disappear just as quickly..

I actually thing long term plan is a buzz phrase that people who want to appear knowledgable use.....you can always have a good/bad scenario....but my god football is far too fickle to write a 10 or 5 year plan?
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2021, 08:01:11 PM »
I have always been in favour of making a long term plan and sticking to it through the ups and downs. Reading some of the well thought posts on here however has given me food for thought. Football is a unique industry where the financial pressures are so great that any slip ups lead to the abandonment of any long term plan, however well thought out. A club of our size will always have major pressures to regain top flight status after a relegation. As others have said, long term stability at the very top is essential to planning. Sadly we do not have that.

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2021, 09:57:53 PM »
I have always been in favour of making a long term plan and sticking to it through the ups and downs. Reading some of the well thought posts on here however has given me food for thought. Football is a unique industry where the financial pressures are so great that any slip ups lead to the abandonment of any long term plan, however well thought out. A club of our size will always have major pressures to regain top flight status after a relegation. As others have said, long term stability at the very top is essential to planning. Sadly we do not have that.

Only to the weak, feckless and unsuccessful football clubs.

Standaman

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2021, 08:09:29 AM »
I agree that football is bad at working long term and planning in general. By it's very nature the game has huge amounts of variance associated with it there is more dumb luck involved than many of those working in the game would readily acknowledge.

However the irony is that the game makes long-term commitments. The academy system is a long term project and clubs commit to 5 year contracts for players and coaches.

The measure of long-term planning is if a club is they don't panic e.g. abruptly change coach playing style and dash out into the market to fix things when a season isn't going as well as it might.
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baggiejohn

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2021, 08:44:37 AM »
IMO, there's a difference between long term planning in the football pyramid below & above the EPL, mainly due to the huge sums of money required to exist in the EPL & above.

There has been mentions on other topics about how efficient our recruitment has been in terms of player performance against money spent, & yet last season AV spent over £150 million on player recruitment & only missed relegation due to an error in their goal line technology system.
From that, you would say that the player recruitment system needs to be better refined for the less wealthy clubs.

Up to EPL level, long term planning is fairly straight forward & low risk, if club owners & fans have the patience.
Once a club gets into the EPL however, the "investment" & subsequent risk increases exponentially, & it's not difficult to see why owners panic & try a "quick fix" solution.
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2021, 09:29:34 AM »
Long term planning how does that work the elite may be able to do that but the rest of us forget it everything in football is constantly changing owner, manager, players, income depending on what division you're in how do you plan ahead with all that going on?

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2021, 10:10:28 AM »
Do the elite even really do it or do they all just throw money at it?

I can’t really see too much longneck term planning from those either to be honest.

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2021, 10:18:44 AM »
There won't be any long term planning until Lai and co are gone , we'll be stuck in this loop for as long as they stay .
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2021, 11:42:36 AM »
I won’t get too bogged down into the definition of “long term plan” as long term could be just a few seasons in some definitions, but for me Dan Ashworth in his time here had a strategy.

In terms of the managers, the club chose attacking managers to get us out of the championship and then to keep us there, opted for more pragmatic people like Hodgson and Clarke.

With signings, Ashworth always looked to pick up the best free transfers whenever they became available, had a clear scouting plan from abroad, would sign at least 1 “player for the future” every year who could develop (Dawson, Dorrans, Mulumbu) and seemed to prioritise higher wages over fees as clubs success seemed to be more aligned to the size of their wage bill rather than what was being spent on headline fees.

I want a director of football to have a clear strategy similar to this, with the added influence of youth players (a clear pathway for how we develop them).
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2021, 12:04:15 PM »
I have always been in favour of making a long term plan and sticking to it through the ups and downs. Reading some of the well thought posts on here however has given me food for thought. Football is a unique industry where the financial pressures are so great that any slip ups lead to the abandonment of any long term plan, however well thought out. A club of our size will always have major pressures to regain top flight status after a relegation. As others have said, long term stability at the very top is essential to planning. Sadly we do not have that.

Good post and one I agree with. The financial rewards are so high nowadays that at the first sight of trouble which may hamper those financial rewards then that long term plan gets chucked into the bin for a lucrative short term fix.

There is no long term plan possible here because we have an uninterested owner. Everything at this club revolves around a takeover. Until that happens then we’ll just live for season to season
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2021, 12:47:51 PM »
Had Lai had a coherent 5 year plan for the club (rather than running with the last of Peace's short term fixes) we would now be benefitting from the fruits of that plan.

I am 90% certain any level of competent execution of a plan would have resulted in us being either in the top end of the Championship or the bottom half the Premier League. That is not a radically different outcome to the series of short term fixes that have been worked through across the last 5 years. However we would be on a more solid footing be more salable as a club and maybe a little bit better insulated against the next external shock. We might also have saved a whole bunch of money.

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zippyandbungle

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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2021, 01:28:37 PM »
Had Lai had a coherent 5 year plan for the club (rather than running with the last of Peace's short term fixes) we would now be benefitting from the fruits of that plan.

I am 90% certain any level of competent execution of a plan would have resulted in us being either in the top end of the Championship or the bottom half the Premier League. That is not a radically different outcome to the series of short term fixes that have been worked through across the last 5 years. However we would be on a more solid footing be more salable as a club and maybe a little bit better insulated against the next external shock. We might also have saved a whole bunch of money.
But this is sort of the problem, our variables plus or minus are really small.
In terms of money, if we spent an extra 30-40 mil last term there is no guarantee we would be better off...
Throw 100m at it and you would at the very least expect 40 points with 5 games left....but why would anyone buy West Brom knowing they would need to spend those amounts to tread water.
It’s very complicated and emotive, and everyone wants the same thing .
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Re: Long Term Plan
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2021, 07:56:16 AM »
But this is sort of the problem, our variables plus or minus are really small.
In terms of money, if we spent an extra 30-40 mil last term there is no guarantee we would be better off...
Throw 100m at it and you would at the very least expect 40 points with 5 games left....but why would anyone buy West Brom knowing they would need to spend those amounts to tread water.
It’s very complicated and emotive, and everyone wants the same thing .

It is perfectly reasonable to have a long term plan without blowing the figures you suggest we’ll need.

You do not need a bag of money to execute a long term plan, though sometimes it might help.
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