Poll

Will you be taking up your option of receiving the Covid vaccine.

Yes
90 (86.5%)
No
11 (10.6%)
Undecided
3 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 104

Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1184875 times)

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kc56wba

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #175 on: March 13, 2020, 03:26:00 PM »
The level of our stock piling is a tin of corned beef. :o
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #176 on: March 13, 2020, 04:39:48 PM »
I just popped to Sainsburys in Rowley in my lunch break to make sure we have some bog roll in the house before the world ends, Jesus christ it was carnage!! They had just had a delivery of said rolls come out on two trolleys, it was like a pack of seagulls around a bag of chips!!!

Also if you want pasta, rice, UHT milk, soap, toothpaste, tinned stuff, sugar, etc forget it the shelves are empty!!!  :o
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #177 on: March 13, 2020, 04:55:35 PM »
The level of our stock piling is a tin of corned beef. :o
I've got some tins of sweetcorn, we could knock up a hash

AlbionFan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #178 on: March 13, 2020, 04:59:22 PM »
The large stores need to intervene and set up some kind of rationing system to ensure a fairer distribution.

But I dare say, that very soon, the hoarders will have no more space left in which to hoard  ;D
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #179 on: March 13, 2020, 05:03:55 PM »
I just popped to Sainsburys in Rowley in my lunch break to make sure we have some bog roll in the house before the world ends, Jesus christ it was carnage!! They had just had a delivery of said rolls come out on two trolleys, it was like a pack of seagulls around a bag of chips!!!

Also if you want pasta, rice, UHT milk, soap, toothpaste, tinned stuff, sugar, etc forget it the shelves are empty!!!  :o

Try this site.
https://www.gogroopie.com/deal/1ahcy161k3e/36__72_or_108_Pack_of_Jumbo_Size_Soft_Toilet_Rolls

SmethDan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #180 on: March 13, 2020, 05:11:55 PM »
Try this site.
https://www.gogroopie.com/deal/1ahcy161k3e/36__72_or_108_Pack_of_Jumbo_Size_Soft_Toilet_Rolls

The small print says he may have to wait up to ten days for delivery. Might be better off buying some shower gel and a flannel, that or keeping his mouth shut whilst doing a handstand in the shower  ;D .
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #181 on: March 13, 2020, 05:19:39 PM »
The small print says he may have to wait up to ten days for delivery. Might be better off buying some shower gel and a flannel, that or keeping his mouth shut whilst doing a handstand in the shower  ;D .
Cut the newspaper up into squares and hang them on a nail.
Worked well in the 1950's.
Then we had Izal. Shiny on one side which slipped straight off yeah bum.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #182 on: March 13, 2020, 05:57:19 PM »
Cut the newspaper up into squares and hang them on a nail.
Worked well in the 1950's.
Then we had Izal. Shiny on one side which slipped straight off yeah bum.
Izal the toilet paper equivalent of a wartburg
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #183 on: March 13, 2020, 06:03:17 PM »
You don't think that the loo roll hoarders are mixing up Norovirus with Coronavirus do you?

Easily done as it has a "virus" in the name  ;D
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #184 on: March 13, 2020, 06:06:54 PM »
Cut the newspaper up into squares and hang them on a nail.
Worked well in the 1950's.
Then we had Izal. Shiny on one side which slipped straight off yeah bum.

Newspaper ink isn't what it was back in the day. Although it's better than going smelly your bum would end up just as dirty with print smudging all over the place. Dread to think what the ink would do to your insides these days if your finger slipped up your ring as well  :o . As for Izal I'd rather use my hand. That stuff used to come sharp and it spread things further than a plasterers trowel. Horrible creation.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 06:10:22 PM by SmethDan »
It doesn't matter how many resources you have.
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #185 on: March 13, 2020, 06:49:36 PM »
Getting back on track.
The football stadiums etc. are closed because we all get together, and can catch the virus, so keep apart to beat the virus.
Herd immunity says that to beat the virus, we have to "herd" together.
Conflicting statements.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #186 on: March 13, 2020, 08:18:24 PM »
Getting back on track.
The football stadiums etc. are closed because we all get together, and can catch the virus, so keep apart to beat the virus.
Herd immunity says that to beat the virus, we have to "herd" together.
Conflicting statements.

Closing schools is counter productive as doctors and nurses have children that would need attending to. And if they and others in crucial jobs have to work, then it falls to grandparents to look after the children, the two age groups you really want to keep apart.

Herding might reduce how long the virus is in our population, to do otherwise could extend it even further and put greater pressure on the NHS.
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Political Cake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #187 on: March 14, 2020, 03:11:25 AM »
Getting back on track.
The football stadiums etc. are closed because we all get together, and can catch the virus, so keep apart to beat the virus.
Herd immunity says that to beat the virus, we have to "herd" together.
Conflicting statements.


I imagine you're thinking of a herd of, say, cattle for this analogy. ;D

The idea of herd immunity's action is that once a sufficient majority of a given population has been seroconverted by a particular virus (and have successfully recovered), those left who are still unaffected and potentially vulnerable are at a much lower average risk of contracting said virus. This is because you cannot infectiously spread a pathogen through an immune population, so it becomes increasingly difficult for it to, by chance, find a route to a potential infectee.

This relies on the particular virus not mutating quickly in ways which encourage reinfections. :-X. Admittedly, this is a fairly safe general assumption.

I imagine this is the scheme our government is trying to induce as quickly as is practically acceptable... Simply put:
 - Trying to find the balance between only enough people becoming critically ill as you can deal with, but not stopping is spread such that it takes forever to work its way through the population.



At the moment, we're not reaching capacity yet. So the government hadn't determined to decline spread by discouraging public groups; the football clubs and authorities themselves are the ones who've decided to cease - for instance the National League decided they would let games continue this weekend. The government hadn't suggested it yet. They're probably keen to increase the spread to the point of capacity and try to manage the situation from there... it's a very risky (and politically dangerous) route to take, but if managed right it could be the quickest route out without "really bad" outcomes (morally, of course I have reservations***).

One of the interesting political decisions is about school closures. It could be that, now we're very certain the young are no worser affected than would be usual for a mild virus, to use them as a means of infectious spread to help reach a 'balanced' infection rate vs critical case rate geographically, after which would then close schools and by this time, many people will be working/staying at home. This plan would sound absolutely horrific to the average man, however, and should be something that's never admitted to.



*** It's worth saying, even a potential best case scenario isn't the nicest thing to read... Let's say a simple 60% infection of the total population would be adequate for a successful herd immunity situation (who knows what it may ultimately be), and a lower-than-seen-anywhere 0.6% mortality rate (just a bit under the best-testing South Korea) for the infection:

60% of UK Population:  39.6 Million infected
0.6% Mortality:  237,600 dead
Average UK annual flu deaths:  ~17,000

They're just loose speculation of course, involving wild assumptions about infectiousness, seasonality and uniqueness, but hopefully it doesn't take much thought to see that only small tweaks and failures are required to make it potentially much, much worse. For now, I suppose everyone will keep their eye on Italy as the most 'progressed' case area.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 03:31:40 AM by Political Cake »
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boinging_along

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #188 on: March 14, 2020, 07:41:42 AM »
I'd add to that if the roughly 40m infected, 10% are critical and will need intensive care, breathing machines etc for a couple of weeks.  That's 4 million people.

kirk

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #189 on: March 14, 2020, 08:05:21 AM »
This virus spreads mostly through the air. Most folks who get it won't be very sick, but a very large percentage will. 3% death rate is staggering. That's 3 people out of 100. Flu is 1 in 1000.

So it's not so much about 'most people', it's about the deadliness of the virus for elderly, diabetics, heavy smokers, asthma/lung patients, cancer patients and so on. If 'most people' don't take care they will infect the vulnerable for whom the risk is FAR greater.

Except the 3% figure is using confirmed cases the likelihood is 10,000 will have had it so the true figure is likely to be just under 1%
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kirk

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #190 on: March 14, 2020, 08:08:18 AM »
I'd add to that if the roughly 40m infected, 10% are critical and will need intensive care, breathing machines etc for a couple of weeks.  That's 4 million people.

Except the figure is too basic as it all depends on the population of our over 60s, 70,s etc .... this is however the issue regarding this illness is their isn’t enough critical beds equipment hence why the government is trying to ensure people catching the virus is spread out, unfortunately our press have a lot to answer for with their coverage
It's easy to have faith in yourself and have discipline when you're a winner, when you're number one. What you got to have is faith and discipline when you're not a winner.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #191 on: March 14, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #192 on: March 14, 2020, 09:17:10 AM »
Something that I hadn't even thought about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51879952

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #193 on: March 14, 2020, 09:19:28 AM »

Political Cake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #194 on: March 14, 2020, 09:21:50 AM »
Admittedly, this is a fairly safe general assumption.


As a supplementary, this from the British Society for Immunology and my old stomping ground yesterday:

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #195 on: March 14, 2020, 09:23:53 AM »
Could be millions dead before June

It sounds like you're suggesting it's a waste of time try to find a vaccine
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #196 on: March 14, 2020, 09:26:36 AM »
Several papers reporting this morning that British scientists are on brink of finding Coronavirus vaccine


"However it would probably be a year before it was available for patients" - Evening Standard

"They have called for more funding and said a vaccine could be available next year." - Metro
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SmethDan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #197 on: March 14, 2020, 09:59:15 AM »

As a supplementary, this from the British Society for Immunology and my old stomping ground yesterday:

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2

So in short the British Society for Immunology currently knows the square root of f all in relation to how the current strain of the virus will pan out. Fair enough, so do the rest of us ;D .
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #198 on: March 14, 2020, 12:24:25 PM »
People: the government should shut the schools, and ban mass congregation to protect us

Also people: panic buying food (which they don't need to do) and spending hours in supermarkets in close quarters  - except high spikes in 2 weeks because of this mass congregation.

The government nudge unit was right people are making things worse.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 12:26:33 PM by BoingFlyer »
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #199 on: March 14, 2020, 12:37:31 PM »
People: the government should shut the schools, and ban mass congregation to protect us

Also people: panic buying food (which they don't need to do) and spending hours in supermarkets in close quarters  - except high spikes in 2 weeks because of this mass congregation.

The government nudge unit was right people are making things worse.

Personally, I feel the MSM are partly responsible for the way many people are panicking by the messages they are promoting
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