I had the review of last season on DVD for Christmas and I'm watching it now and before christmas we were blowing teams away. Some of the football we were playing was some of the best I'd seen in years. Attacking quickly and with purpose. It was a joy to watch. How did we go from this to limping over the line to promotion and what's happened this season? We were better than Leeds for large chunks of last season and we looked a million miles away from them 2 days ago. Was it losing Ferguson? Diangana injury? Lockdown? It's a joy to watch this football back again but also quite sad how things have unravelled so quickly.
To go back to the original question, to first assess what went wrong, we have to determine if and by how much things "went wrong".
Bilic was appointed with a two year plan to get us out of the Championship, so one assumes that the goal of the first season was not promotion. I know I expected us to struggle initially and then finish the season strongly, perhaps pushing for the play-offs. What we actually did was take a little while to get going, have a strong late October, November and early December, before having more sporadic form from then on.
We ended the season with 83 points, which averages out to 1.80 Points Per Game across a 46 game season. We can assume that if our form was constant, we never had a good run of form and never had a slump, we would average 1.8 points over all our games, and end the season with 83 points. Below is a graph that comes a 83 point average vs our actual cumulative points total.
https://imgur.com/PIexVN7Just again to reiterate the point, your conclusions will be based on how/if your expectations change over the course of a season. So one way of interpreting this, is that for the most part, we were always 'ahead' of our 83 end point. One could assume that if our expectation was to let the team gel, and ease ourselves into the season, then we outperformed at the start. Likewise, if you wanted to reassess the season's goals at the beginning of January (which is when I imagine many clubs do), then we were looking at a total above 83.
To that end, it is worth looking at how our PPG varied across the season. What we see in the below graph is our cumulative PPG, a 5 game rolling average, and a flat rate based on getting 83 points.
https://imgur.com/8ckh3ODThis gives a much better view of the peaks and troughs of our season. After the win vs Swansea on 8th December, we had a cumulative PPG of 2.25 and a five game average PPG of 3.00. Based on this, you could reasonably say we should have achieved over 100 points if we'd kept up that form for the rest of the season (2.25 points a game gets you 103.5 points). However, if we fast forward to our worst run of form, to the Cardiff game on the 28th January, our cumulative points PPG is back down to 1.83, meaning we'd expect to see 84 points over a season.
The fact that the PPG recovers in February is interesting - we won five, drew one and lost one, which was the loss to Wigan. On that basis we could even have expected to finish on 90 points, but alas our form dipped either side of the shutdown, and the three consecutive victories in July proved to be a false dawn.
Overall, we can see that depending on your expectations, we "went wrong" by between 1 and 17 points. At our lowest, we still should have ended with 84 points, so to finish with 83 is disappointing. When we were flying in November and February, you could have said that somewhere between 90 and 100 points was not beyond our reach.
Alternatively, you say that promotion, however it was achieved, was what was needed, especially given the financial constraints that Covid as created, so you don't care if we started well and ended badly, because the end justifies the means.