Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 59368 times)

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kc56wba

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3050 on: May 22, 2020, 04:44:41 PM »
IMO, he got the word hysterical correct, it's a term I'd used previously.
It's linking hysterical with lefty that's slightly problematic.

Let's look at the function & outcome of the swab test which tests if a person has covid19 or not.
The swab test looks for traces of the virus in a nasal or saliva swab, I suspect some cases are borderline & therefore need more than one test before a diagnosis can be made.
The outcome of the test will determine if the patient has covid19 or not.

If you record the number of tests carried out & the number of positive tests cumulatively, & then divide one by another you will get a ratio of number of positive tests per number of tests carried out.
If the ratio is increasing then the urgency for tests increases, conversely, if the ratio is decreasing then the urgency decreases.
In addition, if you express the ratio as a percentage & compare todays' ratio against yesterdays' you will also arrive at your R number.

So if the infection rate is decreasing the urgency for tests becomes less, & as others have said, if the capacity is there but the demand isn't, it's difficult to see what the government can do.
A few days ago, the ONS suggested around 150,000 people in the country had the virus, which is an exceedingly small percentage of the total population.
I believe the task now is to find them, which is why the trace & isolate programme is set to go ahead.

So, going back to where we came in, the number of tests has become a hot political potato, & in my opinion there has been a lot of hysterical points scoring.

If the number of cases were increasing exponentially, as they were at the beginning of April, there might be a case for criticising the number of tests, but not now.

I am not criticising the number of tests John, I am criticising the government on not telling us how many people were tested. 250,908 people have tested positive out of how many people tested is what they should be telling us.
Smethwick Born, Tipton Bred. Worcester Oldie.

albion59

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3051 on: May 22, 2020, 04:49:12 PM »
I am not criticising the number of tests John, I am criticising the government on not telling us how many people were tested. 250,908 people have tested positive out of how many people tested is what they should be telling us.
No you criticising the government? Well there's a shock.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3052 on: May 22, 2020, 04:53:38 PM »
I am not supporting the numbers in any way, but when I have a blood test for my health reasons, there are 5 vials which need to be examined.
To me, that is five tests, even though it is only one needle and blood taking.

kc56wba

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3053 on: May 22, 2020, 05:02:06 PM »
No you criticising the government? Well there's a shock.

 ;D As I would with any government who hid the truth.  ;D
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The Black Pearl

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3054 on: May 22, 2020, 05:06:20 PM »
As I said before at my sister in law's home, the first test of a resident was negative, the second test was positive, clearly two tests.
Baggie in Southampton

baggiejohn

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3055 on: May 22, 2020, 05:10:17 PM »
I am not criticising the number of tests John, I am criticising the government on not telling us how many people were tested. 250,908 people have tested positive out of how many people tested is what they should be telling us.

Bear in mind, that the data is mainly for analysis & it's not perfect, I believe the data shows how many tests were completed (some people are tested more than once).
If the reliability rate is constant, then, for analytical purposes, the number of tests works ok.
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boinging_along

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3056 on: May 22, 2020, 06:00:45 PM »
I am not supporting the numbers in any way, but when I have a blood test for my health reasons, there are 5 vials which need to be examined.
To me, that is five tests, even though it is only one needle and blood taking.

I'd disagree personally, if someone said "have you had a blood test today?", you would answer, yes, I've had 5.  Or if the doc said you've got a blood test next week they don’t say you've got 5 blood tests.

albion59

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3057 on: May 22, 2020, 06:13:15 PM »
I'd disagree personally, if someone said "have you had a blood test today?", you would answer, yes, I've had 5.  Or if the doc said you've got a blood test next week they don’t say you've got 5 blood tests.
When I have a blood test it is always for 5 or 6 things my Dr doesn't say  you need a  blood test he says you need to get your bloods done. So how is that interpreted? As far as I'm concerned they are testing 5 lots of blood for 5 diferent thing's so  that is 5 tests.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3058 on: May 22, 2020, 06:24:41 PM »
When I have a blood test it is always for 5 or 6 things my Dr doesn't say  you need a  blood test he says you need to get your bloods done. So how is that interpreted? As far as I'm concerned they are testing 5 lots of blood for 5 diferent thing's so  that is 5 tests.

I would call that one blood test, but if my nose was swabbed for Covid, then that test was inconclusive and had to be repeated, that is clearly two tests.
Baggie in Southampton

hardtobeat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3059 on: May 22, 2020, 06:42:08 PM »
Bear in mind, that the data is mainly for analysis & it's not perfect, I believe the data shows how many tests were completed (some people are tested more than once).
If the reliability rate is constant, then, for analytical purposes, the number of tests works ok.
It certainly doesn’t count completed tests! it also includes tests sent out by post/courier currently accepted to be around 30/40k per day. There are rumours in places of another form of figure massaging emerging today too ,surely the number of individuals tested is a far better guide .
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:53:05 PM by hardtobeat »
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WoysWunderful

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3060 on: May 22, 2020, 07:01:26 PM »
Have the tests allways been classified this way? Or is it a recent change?

baggiejohn

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3061 on: May 22, 2020, 07:04:45 PM »
It certainly doesn’t count completed tests! it also includes tests sent out by post/courier currently accepted to be around 30/40k . There are rumours in places of another form of figure massaging emerging today too ,surely the number of individuals tested is a far better guide .

Yes you're right, it would

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

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The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

boinging_along

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3062 on: May 22, 2020, 07:11:59 PM »
It wouldn't matter too much if they'd laid out how they wanted to count the tests up front.  If they'd said it was going to include posted out tests, batch tests sent to care homes, a throat and nasal swab as two, then fair enough. 

But they set off by saying it would be 100,000 PEOPLE tested.  And even when they did great to get to 70k then they could have owned that still, but no, they opted to obfuscate, if not outright lie.

And again, it wouldn't matter too much if it wasn't for the fact that test and trace is needed to ensure we don't have a second bump.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3063 on: May 22, 2020, 07:17:55 PM »
I'd disagree personally, if someone said "have you had a blood test today?", you would answer, yes, I've had 5.  Or if the doc said you've got a blood test next week they don’t say you've got 5 blood tests.
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baggiejohn

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3064 on: May 22, 2020, 07:21:07 PM »
You live once....how many birthdays do you have ?

Only one, all the rest are annual anniversaries.
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

A wise old owl sat in an oak, the more he saw, the less he spoke
The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3065 on: May 22, 2020, 08:25:34 PM »
Not sure the link below, which is to the Ipsos MORI website and contains Infographics, videos, vlogs, and polls on the Pandemic, will be everyone’s cup of tea, but it has some interesting features and provides a flavour of public opinion, attitudes and behaviours.

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-opinion-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic
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AlbionFan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3066 on: May 22, 2020, 08:57:18 PM »
I am posting this as I genuinely would like to know if others are of the same mind as me or if I am totally out of step with current thinking on this, or am I being naive in thinking no one in this crisis have acted with “malice aforethought”, but in “good faith” with “no intention to do harm”, but the reverse to that.

I really do hope there is an independent, full, thorough and transparent investigation at the end of all of this into the events and what was done right and what could have been done better. I deliberately didn’t use "wrong", as normally, in unprecedented circumstances, they are only apparent after the event in my view.

I want an investigation, not to apportion blame, but something more meaningful that we can dissect, analyse and learn lessons from, to be better equipped for any such future events, (god forbid) and not recriminations that become a shuttlecock between opposing combatants and, which I consider would serve no real purpose.

If we enter into a blame game and start holding individuals, official bodies, organisations et al, to account through the full force of the law, where and at what point would you draw the line? This approach would be none productive, only transparency, stifling truth and honesty.

Can you imagine the complications and complexities of taking civil or criminal proceedings in these circumstances?

For example, a scenario on a civil action,  if A caught Covid-19 and is sure he caught it from neighbour B, as he came round to A’s house and no one else had visited A, the balance of probability is that B gave it to A. Is it B’s fault?

Let’s just consider for a moment the possibility that, a Doctor and/or Nurse, who had saved hundreds of other lives, made a clinical error with a Covid-19 patient, resulting in the loss of a life and a criminal charge and proceedings followed. Would we really want to see a conviction? I personally wouldn’t, unless it was through gross negligence and even then, if a doctor and/or nurse had worked intense 18 hour shifts a few days running, would it be unreasonable to acknowledge those mitigating circumstances as contributory factors?

I consider that the same principals should apply to official bodies, organisations et al, who, no doubt will have the finger of blame pointing in their direction in the fullness of time.

I'm sure there are many holes in the above, but I hope you can see the principle of my mindset on this.

Your thoughts would be welcomed for or against.

And so it begins

“The NUE teachers union has written to every school head saying that they will be sued if any teachers catch Cov19. Not quite the spirit of the NHS. The government should bring out an emergency act to stop this nonsense.”

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8321419/Teachers-union-threatens-SUE-school-chiefs-staff-risk.html
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The same applies, when you are stupid

The Black Pearl

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3067 on: May 22, 2020, 09:32:00 PM »
And so it begins

“The NUE teachers union has written to every school head saying that they will be sued if any teachers catch Cov19. Not quite the spirit of the NHS. The government should bring out an emergency act to stop this nonsense.”

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8321419/Teachers-union-threatens-SUE-school-chiefs-staff-risk.html

Paid half as much as nurses, twice the time off, get back and do your bit you work shy charlatans.
Baggie in Southampton

hardtobeat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3068 on: May 22, 2020, 10:47:54 PM »
Johnson now has a big problem......Cummings apparently travelled from London to Durham to go to his parents knowing he had the virus allegedly because he needed them for childcare !!!!!
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3069 on: May 22, 2020, 10:58:24 PM »
Johnson now has a big problem......Cummings apparently travelled from London to Durham to go to his parents knowing he had the virus allegedly because he needed them for childcare !!!!!

Nothing will come of it...

Source has already told Kuenssberg they don't consider it to be a breach.

Just another distraction that Cummings himself will probably welcome, as it will allow them to 'bury other unpopular news'.
Proud to be a Baggie. BOING BOING.

kc56wba

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3070 on: May 22, 2020, 10:59:07 PM »
End of Clap for Carers?
Thursday night saw the ninth Clap for Carers, which sees people across the UK pause to applaud front-line workers keeping everyone safe during the pandemic. But the woman who came up with the idea has suggested next week's clap should be the last - and that it should become an annual event, instead. It's now time for ministers to reward those key workers, said Annemarie Plas - which the government says it is considering how best to do.
Smethwick Born, Tipton Bred. Worcester Oldie.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3071 on: May 22, 2020, 11:04:47 PM »
Nothing will come of it...

Source has already told Kuenssberg they don't consider it to be a breach.

Just another distraction that Cummings himself will probably welcome, as it will allow them to 'bury other unpopular news'.

I believe Downing Street have referred to a statement that Jenny Harries made a few weeks ago during a briefing to clarify the situation. Nothing to see here
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alex1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3072 on: May 22, 2020, 11:15:09 PM »
Johnson now has a big problem......Cummings apparently travelled from London to Durham to go to his parents knowing he had the virus allegedly because he needed them for childcare !!!!!
Didn't a couple of Sturgeon's top advisors have to resign for similar breaches? Would be one the few good things to come out of the crisis if it meant seeing the back of Cummings.
Einstein: A definition of insanity- someone who takes the same action time after time, even though previously it's always ended in failure

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3073 on: May 22, 2020, 11:42:51 PM »
I think this is just more "leftie hysteria" about Cummings, the rules clearly don't apply to superior beings,.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3074 on: May 23, 2020, 01:38:10 AM »
Source has already told Kuenssberg

Quoted without comment :-X ;D


I think this is just more "leftie hysteria" about Cummings, the rules clearly don't apply to superior beings,.

... but if you really want a comment from elsewhere, he, and whoever is above him, have largely escaped accountability on the back of so-called "rightie sympathy" for a good long while now, well before this crisis. :P

While on its own this is largely click-bait, he should've been pushed an awful long time ago. For some unknown reason he's still here...


Nothing to see here
Just another distraction that Cummings himself will probably welcome, as it will allow them to 'bury other unpopular news'.

Ah yes, that rings a bell. ;)
The fire-ability almost reminds me of Mandelson, but unelected.



Heading towards other unknowing opinions - a poll by JL Partners (on behalf of the Daily Mail) suggests more than 60% of respondents did not want to send their children back to school in June, with even 36% of blue voters (vs 48%) saying teachers unions should 'have the right to veto' reopening of schools (55/27% pos/neg overall).

They also found large majorities for 'two-week quarantining of arrivals' (75/11%) and majorities against reopening the following: Cafes or pubs w/ outdoor seating; clothes shops; schools; churches; hotels.

« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 02:53:27 AM by Political Cake »
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