Author Topic: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY  (Read 77772 times)

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seteefeet

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1550 on: June 15, 2020, 03:37:52 PM »
In a sample of 55 games (like you without looking) it would have evened itself out... over 50% away wins to my mind is well out of the usual range.
That's what I mean. With home advantage negated the "better" team wins even more often, which is another stat that would be in our favour.

ashdoy

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1551 on: June 15, 2020, 03:39:56 PM »
sorry if this has been mentioned elsewhere, just gone to sort my refund but it says £0.00 in the total? is this right? or am i doing something wrong...
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Albionic

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1552 on: June 15, 2020, 03:49:58 PM »
That's what I mean. With home advantage negated the "better" team wins even more often, which is another stat that would be in our favour.

16 draws from 55 games,(30%) seems high to me as well
Anyone got a number for typical championship season
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SmethDan

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1553 on: June 15, 2020, 04:38:58 PM »
sorry if this has been mentioned elsewhere, just gone to sort my refund but it says £0.00 in the total? is this right? or am i doing something wrong...

I couldn't do mine online earlier as the 'Events' box wouldn't allow me to click on it. Rang the ticket office, waited in a short call queue for a couple of minutes and they sorted it for me. The deadline for refunds is close of play tomorrow. Give 'em a bell on 0121 227 2227 if you haven't already done so. All of the best chap.
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MarkW

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1554 on: June 15, 2020, 04:45:16 PM »
16 draws from 55 games,(30%) seems high to me as well
Anyone got a number for typical championship season

Last season there were 162 games drawn, which is about 29%

Edit:

Across the league last season, there were 240 home wins, 162 draws, and 150 away wins.

That equates to:

43% home win
27% away win
29% draw

With the 1% discrepancy due to rounding
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 04:50:47 PM by MarkW »
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baggiemart

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1555 on: June 15, 2020, 04:51:39 PM »
Personally I’m going to buy the now tv month pass on the 17th. £33 I think and it’ll give me plenty of premier league matches,  and almost certainly 4 out ours with better quality than ifollow plus better commentary, build up etc. (I feel that they are bound to pick our game vs Fulham).


If you have sky TV but not skysports you can upgrade to all sky sports for £18 a month.  18 month contract but that should cover us for our 1 season in the premier !!!

Albionic

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1556 on: June 15, 2020, 10:32:29 PM »
Last season there were 162 games drawn, which is about 29%

Edit:

Across the league last season, there were 240 home wins, 162 draws, and 150 away wins.

That equates to:

43% home win
27% away win
29% draw

With the 1% discrepancy due to rounding

Thanks, so my thoughts were bunkum, that's not unusual
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MarkW

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1557 on: June 16, 2020, 12:19:44 AM »
Thanks, so my thoughts were bunkum, that's not unusual


Someone with more time on their hands than me could look at the Bundesliga and see if the change in home and away form of each team, and overall, was statistically significant.

Like Seteefeet says, it could be down to a random fluke of the fixture list, but over 55 games, as Jacko mentions, it's a large discrepancy.
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don1thedon

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1558 on: June 16, 2020, 12:25:00 PM »
Someone with more time on their hands than me could look at the Bundesliga and see if the change in home and away form of each team, and overall, was statistically significant.

Like Seteefeet says, it could be down to a random fluke of the fixture list, but over 55 games, as Jacko mentions, it's a large discrepancy.

Copied from the "Points needed" post.
Analysis of the Bundesliga data certainly indicates a large swing against any home advantage.

I think this thread is probably the best place for this
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-england-bundesliga/premier-league-hosts-beware-german-data-shows-end-of-home-advantage-idUKKBN23M2DS
In very simple terms the stats seem to show that the perceived home advantage is not reflected in the reality of playing in front of an empty stadium with no home supporters to egg players on to put in the game changing efforts

Albionic

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1559 on: June 16, 2020, 12:31:42 PM »
given all teams have either 4 or 5 home games and 4 / 5 away, the advantage of any home /away bias is pretty minimal in my mind. It certainly isn't worth 6 points  ;D :D
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tuamigos

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1560 on: June 16, 2020, 12:36:46 PM »
given all teams have either 4 or 5 home games and 4 / 5 away, the advantage of any home /away bias is pretty minimal in my mind. It certainly isn't worth 6 points  ;D :D

We might see different performances from players who seem to fall short infront of big crowds.
How many times have you heard how good players are in training and then turn out to be pants on the pitch?
Could see players you never expected to turn up actually turn it on.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1561 on: June 16, 2020, 12:41:11 PM »
I also suspect that there will be more big margin wins than is the norm. May be proven wrong but I think some teams will be fitter and better prepared, resulting in some thrashings. Will be interesting to see.

Albionic

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1562 on: June 17, 2020, 09:01:31 PM »
Brentford confirm that 1 of theirs have tested positive. No detail of who, the affected individual will self isolate (miss Fulham game)
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BalisPen

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1563 on: June 25, 2020, 02:21:13 PM »
Who was it that hot weather would not be an issue?

MarkW

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Re: Coronavirus Thread - Games resuming 20 June - CLUB RELATED ONLY
« Reply #1564 on: June 29, 2020, 02:31:38 PM »
Last season there were 162 games drawn, which is about 29%

Edit:

Across the league last season, there were 240 home wins, 162 draws, and 150 away wins.

That equates to:

43% home win
27% away win
29% draw

With the 1% discrepancy due to rounding

Just to bring this back, I believe that so far we have had 8 home wins, 10 away wins, and 6 draws since the resumption of play.

That equates to

33% home win
42% away win
25% draw

Very interesting
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