Author Topic: How many points needed?  (Read 15481 times)

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The Black Pearl

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2020, 11:08:39 AM »
I think you need to turn it around, if you were a chasing club, when would it be hopeless
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Albionic

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2020, 11:12:54 AM »
Fulham on 57 points , final 12  games are Swansea / Preston / Brizzle / Brentford / Leeds / QPR / Blues / Forest / Cardiff / WBA / Sheff wed / wigan
a horror run, if they get near to 87 points it will be a hell of an achievement, more notable they WILL be taking points of the "others"

Brentford conversely have after the next 5 games have a great run in and will represent the real threat from the pack (IMO)
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exmember

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2020, 11:18:34 AM »
Imagine 84 should be fine this year.

So 12 games to go

5 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats and we are there. Absolutely no reason why we can't get that

seteefeet

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2020, 11:25:25 AM »
My updated predictor:

Pos   Team   Predicted
1   WBA           87
2   Leeds   84
3   Fulham   81
4   Brentford   79
5   Forest   74
6   Preston   69

mulliganstired

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2020, 11:46:21 AM »
Fulham on 57 points , final 12  games are Swansea / Preston / Brizzle / Brentford / Leeds / QPR / Blues / Forest / Cardiff / WBA / Sheff wed / wigan
a horror run, if they get near to 87 points it will be a hell of an achievement, more notable they WILL be taking points of the "others"

Brentford conversely have after the next 5 games have a great run in and will represent the real threat from the pack (IMO)
Yes, I am most worried about Brentford right now, they seem to have a great team ethos going, but it is in our own hands, I hope we just keep the gap to third like this over the next few weeks - I would like to see Leeds slip back as well though.

colinmax

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #55 on: February 24, 2020, 12:10:14 PM »
In theory we can not fail to go up with a safety margin of 9 points although of course we could lose our next three matches and Brentford or Fulham could win their next three and the margin has disappeared.
This is quite possible over a short time but statisticly unlikely.
Wigan are in the bottom three and average a point a game.
To achieve this apparently easy target we would have 78points.
 Fulham could only achieve 81 points if  they scored 2points a game and Brentford and Forest could get to 80points.
Only Liverpool and Man City of the 91 teams in the leagues have achieved this so it is a big ask.
Theory makes us certainties to go up so keep the faith.

KN22

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #56 on: February 24, 2020, 12:43:31 PM »
In theory we can not fail to go up with a safety margin of 9 points although of course we could lose our next three matches and Brentford or Fulham could win their next three and the margin has disappeared.
This is quite possible over a short time but statisticly unlikely.
Wigan are in the bottom three and average a point a game.
To achieve this apparently easy target we would have 78points.
 Fulham could only achieve 81 points if  they scored 2points a game and Brentford and Forest could get to 80points.
Only Liverpool and Man City of the 91 teams in the leagues have achieved this so it is a big ask.
Theory makes us certainties to go up so keep the faith.

i like the positive bulletin here but really don't get the logic. Wigan?? Sorry if I am being thick, it wouldn't be the first time ;D

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #57 on: February 24, 2020, 12:48:57 PM »
i like the positive bulletin here but really don't get the logic. Wigan?? Sorry if I am being thick, it wouldn't be the first time ;D

I think the logic is if we match the points per game of a relegation team then we are still up, as the chasing pack would have to better more than 2 points per game. The chasing pack would have to beat Liverpool or Man city dominance of the prem to do that.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 12:51:06 PM by BoingFlyer »
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KN22

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #58 on: February 24, 2020, 12:50:58 PM »
I think the logic is if we match the points per game of a relegation team then we are still up, as the chasing pack would have to better more than 2 points per game.

That helps, thank you Boing

Albionic

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #59 on: February 24, 2020, 01:00:47 PM »
bookies have us 1/9 to 1/14  :o  That'll do for me Tommy !
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mulliganstired

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #60 on: February 24, 2020, 01:01:34 PM »
In theory we can not fail to go up with a safety margin of 9 points although of course we could lose our next three matches and Brentford or Fulham could win their next three and the margin has disappeared.
This is quite possible over a short time but statisticly unlikely.
Wigan are in the bottom three and average a point a game.
To achieve this apparently easy target we would have 78points.
 Fulham could only achieve 81 points if  they scored 2points a game and Brentford and Forest could get to 80points.
Only Liverpool and Man City of the 91 teams in the leagues have achieved this so it is a big ask.
Theory makes us certainties to go up so keep the faith.
I think we all know the warning coming up here - Theoretically, bees can't fly - quite appropriate with Brentford in the mix actually!

Wigmore

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #61 on: February 24, 2020, 02:24:55 PM »
I think we all know the warning coming up here - Theoretically, bees can't fly - quite appropriate with Brentford in the mix actually!
Sorry to be a pedant, but you are just perpetuating a myth about bees.
https://www.businessinsider.com/bees-cant-fly-scientifically-incorrect-2017-12?r=US&IR=T

But I'm still worried about Brentford..... ;)

mulliganstired

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #62 on: February 24, 2020, 06:56:05 PM »
Sorry to be a pedant, but you are just perpetuating a myth about bees.
https://www.businessinsider.com/bees-cant-fly-scientifically-incorrect-2017-12?r=US&IR=T

But I'm still worried about Brentford..... ;)
Bloody spoilsport!

liverbaggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #63 on: February 25, 2020, 12:00:29 AM »
I reckon 6 more wins and a draw gives us 85 points,that'll do it.
Starting with next 2 home wins takes us to 72 ,you can smell it then.

lewisant

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #64 on: February 25, 2020, 10:20:18 AM »
Sorry to be a pedant, but you are just perpetuating a myth about bees.
https://www.businessinsider.com/bees-cant-fly-scientifically-incorrect-2017-12?r=US&IR=T

But I'm still worried about Brentford..... ;)

Thank you for that...as soon as I saw that i needed to look it up.

6 wins from 12 you'd think would be enough to secure automatic promotion and is poorer form that we've had all season so it seems achievable, throw a couple of draws in there too and it may just be enough for the title. Though we must be cautious, we've seen how quickly the gap can close and open up again. Two wins at home this week would huge and in theory leave us just needing 4 wins from the final 10.

Hull Baggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2020, 10:55:51 AM »
With 4 of the other 5 teams all playing away for the next 2 games (Fulham play at home in both) we have a good chance to put a bit more space between us and those below us.

Leeds have potential banana skins at Boro and Hull, Brentford are at Luton and Cardiff, Forest are at Cardiff and Boro and Preston play us and Fulham.

I think the game tonight is probably the easier fixture of the two we've got; as Wigan have been making things very difficult for teams recently and beat Leeds away only a few weeks ago.
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TiptonThrostle

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #66 on: February 25, 2020, 04:39:43 PM »
With 4 of the other 5 teams all playing away for the next 2 games (Fulham play at home in both) we have a good chance to put a bit more space between us and those below us.

Leeds have potential banana skins at Boro and Hull, Brentford are at Luton and Cardiff, Forest are at Cardiff and Boro and Preston play us and Fulham.

I think the game tonight is probably the easier fixture of the two we've got; as Wigan have been making things very difficult for teams recently and beat Leeds away only a few weeks ago.


Wigan have won 2 out of 17 away games.

Preston are unbeaten in their last 6 away games and taken 12 points out of a possible 18 and you think wigan is a more difficult home game??

stay off the jagers mate.

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #67 on: February 25, 2020, 05:20:27 PM »

Wigan have won 2 out of 17 away games.

Preston are unbeaten in their last 6 away games and taken 12 points out of a possible 18 and you think wigan is a more difficult home game??

stay off the jagers mate.

No need for the sarcasm.

Many expected us to roll over  Wigan earlier in the season but we didn't. Wigan have beaten Leeds at Elland Rd , not many teams do that. Wigan have survival to fight for which I think makes them the more dangerous opposition than a side vying for a play off place. Also we are more likely to underestimate a side nearer the bottom of the table just as we did at their place.
 
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liverbaggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #68 on: February 25, 2020, 07:49:12 PM »
I think we'll thrash Wigan.
Saturday will be entirely different to the match at Wigan.
I was at that game and it was terrible we were bad but so were Wigan,we go up a gear and its 3-0 to us.

alex1

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #69 on: February 25, 2020, 11:00:49 PM »
After tonight's performance against No.6 in the Division and v Forest, I can't see who is going to stop us now. We look so much stronger in all departments, and we've got strength from the substitutes bench. We've still got to play Brentford and Fulham, who have both looked very good in spells, but even if they beat us, they both look too   inconsistent to stay the course.
There again as Jimmy Greaves said, football's a funny old game.
Einstein: A definition of insanity- someone who takes the same action time after time, even though previously it's always ended in failure

KN22

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #70 on: February 25, 2020, 11:17:54 PM »
Need 5 more wins now....

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #71 on: February 25, 2020, 11:58:46 PM »
Tonight's result moves the dial a little we are now down to 8 wins to guarantee promotion.

Moving from the purely mathematical to the balance of probabilities the remote chance that Preston and Bristol City had of catching us is over. Brentford's failure to win any in the last four has greatly lessened their threat. Fulham might now be the most likely challengers and the most points they can get is 93 points. 
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baggie38

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2020, 05:48:41 AM »
Tonight's result moves the dial a little we are now down to 8 wins to guarantee promotion.

Moving from the purely mathematical to the balance of probabilities the remote chance that Preston and Bristol City had of catching us is over. Brentford's failure to win any in the last four has greatly lessened their threat. Fulham might now be the most likely challengers and the most points they can get is 93 points.

Spot on and not to mention Fulhams run of fixtures is very tricky over the coming week. Their next 5 games are :

Swansea
Preston
Bristol
Brentford
Leeds

And then further down the line they have to play forest and us.

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2020, 12:54:08 PM »
I've said 82 points for a while to go up and 86-89 to win it.

The only danger I can envisage apart from out results collapsing is a Fulham run which got them into the play offs and up a couple of seasons ago as they have a better squad than that one now whilst retaining the core of those players.

They also went on a great run to stay up in the prem under Roy I think so they have it in their DNA to do it.

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2020, 01:25:17 PM »
Agreed on 82
Absolute best Fulham can achieve its 2 points a game which would give them 81