Author Topic: How many points needed?  (Read 15501 times)

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ttree30

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How many points needed?
« on: February 15, 2020, 03:15:24 PM »
How many points will be needed to finish in the top 2?

Of course the points distribution is different every season, but history might give us some clues. In the past 15 years, the lowest is 79 and the highest 93. The average is around 87.

If we carry on at our current average we will reach 88. Just about enough, but only just.

If 87 is the minimum target, 24 points from 13 games is far from a formality and every three point winning game is absolutely vital. That’s why dropping two points today is really painful. If we won only 6, we could only afford to lose 1 game and would have to draw all the others to get there. But if we win 7 we can afford to lose 3, or if we win 8 we can lose 5.

A nice little run of three or four wins in a row could make a huge difference but I still think there’s a very long way to go.



paulosull

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 05:10:00 PM »
After suffering late equaliser only Leeds picked up points on us, seven a head of Fulham and 10 a head of Bristol City in seventh.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 05:12:29 PM by paulosull »

caravanc58

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2020, 05:14:12 PM »
After suffering late equaliser only Leeds picked up points on us, seven a head of Fulham and 10 a head of Blackburn in seventh.
I'd say with us having to play Brentford and Fulham as long as we can get through unbeaten in those two games the other fixture i think we'll have enough to secure the points needed.

Standaman

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2020, 05:31:32 PM »
Okay the Championship is completely bonkers we have 63 points if we run at 2 points a game across the last 13 that would take us to 89 points. Only ourselves and Leeds have run at level of form for any length of time this season. What makes the Division so competitive is that nearly every team even those fairly mediocre teams in the bottom half of the league have run at 1.5 points a game for at least 7 games.

So projecting forward I would be shocked if 3 teams got to 89 points. My gut feel on this is 84/85 points will be enough which is 21 points from an available 39. We could do it with as few as 5 wins 6 draws and 2 defeats, particularly if we avoid defeat against Bristol City, Brentford, Fulham and PNE.   

One of the reasons why the total will be relatively low is that the top 7 (on 53 to 63 points as of tonight) is that they play each other which means that they depress each others points totals in the scramble for a play-off spot.

Bristol City play WBA, Fulham Forest and PNE
Leeds play Fulham
Forest play Bristol City PNE and Fulham
Brentford play PNE Fulham and WBA
Fulham PNE, WBA, Leeds, Forest and Brentford
PNE WBA, Fulham Brentford and Forest.

Leeds seem to have the kindest schedule. Our advantage is that we can pick up enough points from teams outside the top 7 (27 to get to 90 points) regardless of results of teams around us aside from Leeds none of the others do.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 08:16:20 PM by Standaman »
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KN22

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2020, 06:04:28 PM »
The team in 3rd place, Fulham, has 56 points with 13 to play. Doing the maths based on this there is no way we will need 87 points. More like 83 maximum. This should be doable.

KingKoren

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2020, 06:09:19 PM »
Anything above 80 will give you change of automatic promotion this year I reckon. Above 85 I'd say will definitely be enough.

hardtobeat

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2020, 06:20:48 PM »
Somewhere in the region of another 20/23 pts may well be enough for promotion
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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2020, 07:10:22 PM »
Top two. If not outright winners. Enough time for banana skins for everyone, we're not special in that regard.
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liverbaggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2020, 08:43:15 PM »
The first target is the playoffs,how many points do we need to guarantee to get to them approx?

WBArgo

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2020, 08:46:16 PM »
The first target is the playoffs,how many points do we need to guarantee to get to them approx?

Last season you needed 74 points to finish 7th, so bar a disaster we should comfortably finish in the play-offs.
I believe last season the points for the top 2 where higher though with 89 points enough for promotion whereas this season it may be closer to 85 or even less.
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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2020, 08:56:55 PM »
Looking at the last few seasons 2nd place finished on 90 points. 2 points a game should see us up via automatic promotion maybe even less, as the chasing pack is so tight. So 13 games left 6 wins?
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zippyandbungle

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2020, 09:56:32 PM »
We need to finish with a one goal difference better than the team in third
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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2020, 10:01:53 PM »
Always surprises me how bad the maths is when it comes to these threads  :D

As it stands, 79 points would do it if everyone below 3rd continues to run at their current points per game. Saw a post on a Brentford forum after the mid week games where a guy has a calculator running that said 84 points gave a 92% chance of guaranteeing top 2 - will be more like 95% after everyone dropped points again.

With the top 7 all playing each other it's going to take either one of them to go on a surging run of form and break out from the pack, or for us to go on another extended run of poor form. You'd think only Fulham or Brentford have the quality to do that, Scott Parker and Brentford's squad depth could be our friends in that regard.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 12:49:16 AM by wba_1996 »

zippyandbungle

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2020, 10:24:36 PM »
Always surprises me how bad the maths is when it comes to these threads  :D

As it stands, 79 points would do it if everyone below 3rd continues to run at their current points per game. Saw a post on a Brentford forum after the mid week games where a guy has a calculator running that said 82 points gave a 92% chance of guaranteeing top 2 - will be more like 95% after everyone dropped points again.

With the top 7 all playing each other it's going to take either one of them to go on a surging run of form and break out from the pack, or for us to go on another extended run of poor form. You'd think only Fulham or Brentford have the quality to do that, Scott Parker and Brentford's squad depth could be our friends in that regard.
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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2020, 11:07:55 PM »

The way I look at goal difference is that it’s worth half a point.

Eg

   GP   W   D   L   GF   GA   GD   Pts   stats   
   West Brom33   17   12   4   59   36   +23   63   
   Leeds Utd   33   17   8   8   48   30   +18   59   
   Fulham   33   16   8   9   47   36   +11   56   
   Brentford   33   16   7   10   54   27   +27   55   




Currently Brentford are on 55 points. I’d call it 55.5 points compared to us due to their superior GD.
With us on 63 and them on 55.5, effectively they’d need an extra 8 points to overtake us.

Similarly with Fulham even by making up the points gap to us it’s unlikely they’ll make up the 12 goal difference so I’d say they’re on 56 points and we’re on 63.5 points in comparison. Again they’ll need make up 8points to surpass us.

So even though Fulham and Brentford are on 56 and 55 points respectively they both need 8 extra points to overhaul us

Hope that makes sense?!

Croatbaggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2020, 11:17:12 PM »
The way I look at goal difference is that it’s worth half a point.

Eg

   GP   W   D   L   GF   GA   GD   Pts   stats   
   West Brom33   17   12   4   59   36   +23   63   
   Leeds Utd   33   17   8   8   48   30   +18   59   
   Fulham   33   16   8   9   47   36   +11   56   
   Brentford   33   16   7   10   54   27   +27   55   




Currently Brentford are on 55 points. I’d call it 55.5 points compared to us due to their superior GD.
With us on 63 and them on 55.5, effectively they’d need an extra 8 points to overtake us.

Similarly with Fulham even by making up the points gap to us it’s unlikely they’ll make up the 12 goal difference so I’d say they’re on 56 points and we’re on 63.5 points in comparison. Again they’ll need make up 8points to surpass us.

So even though Fulham and Brentford are on 56 and 55 points respectively they both need 8 extra points to overhaul us

Hope that makes sense?!

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2020, 01:37:28 AM »
The other wrinkle in this is that the teams that are challenging for maybe the final 2 play-off places e.g. Blackburn, Cardiff, Millwall and Swansea can only sustain those challenges by taking points off those teams ahead of them in the table, if any of those teams run at 2 points a game it will have the impact of increasing the points total required for a play-off place but probably decreasing the number of points required for an automatic spot.

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beechyboy90

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2020, 02:06:27 AM »
If we got 7 wins 3 draws it would take a colossal effort from somebody to pip up us to automatic promotion let alone the title.

90 points normally enough for automatic. Think we won the league with 83 under mowbray
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tuamigos

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2020, 06:44:53 AM »
I've stuck with 88 all season. Still sticking with it.
Diagana and Gibbs waiting in the wings also.
Should be doable for this group of players
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 06:48:45 AM by tuamigos »
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johnny Cash

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2020, 10:50:15 AM »
A Brentford fan seems to have done the maths, and as it stands anything over 83 points predicts with over 90% certainty that you’ll be top 2. 

It appears to be based on teams running at their current PPG though rather than maximum points required which I’ve not worked out but is probably around 92 at present but reducing weekly. I think 86 will do it but it could be much lower if teams continue to stutter.

8 wins from 13.




KingKoren

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2020, 10:55:24 AM »
If we got 7 wins 3 draws it would take a colossal effort from somebody to pip up us to automatic promotion let alone the title.

90 points normally enough for automatic. Think we won the league with 83 under mowbray

81 and Stoke were second on 79

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2020, 12:27:48 PM »
A Brentford fan seems to have done the maths, and as it stands anything over 83 points predicts with over 90% certainty that you’ll be top 2. 

It appears to be based on teams running at their current PPG though rather than maximum points required which I’ve not worked out but is probably around 92 at present but reducing weekly. I think 86 will do it but it could be much lower if teams continue to stutter.

8 wins from 13.

My estimate is also 86. Not scientifically calculated though. 23 points from 13 games or around 1.8 points per game.

Leeds would need 2.1 points per game and any other team more like 2.3 points per game.  Both possible of course.  But if we were to get another bad run like the one we had a few weeks ago then it would quickly become squeaky bottom time.  We just need to avoid any run like that.

paulosull

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2020, 01:10:26 PM »
We have got the cushion of 7 points, 8 really if you take lnto consideration goal difference but the teams below us will be looking over their shoulders more due to fact that they have no such gap to chasing pack for play off places.  Last season vile were thirteenth in league and had a run of games only too make play offs can only think of our famous Dingle hunt to finish second after being 12 points behind where a team have over taken a top two with a big points gap. Apologies if I'm wrong.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 01:20:43 PM by paulosull »

liverbaggie

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2020, 01:11:16 PM »
If we win the next 3 matches,from memory gets us to 72 points,all 3 are win able with 2 at home,doesn't that get us to a similar number of points that 6 place ended up after 46 games?
We will still have 10 matches to play.
I don't know where I'm going with this,help me.

paulosull

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Re: How many points needed?
« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2020, 01:18:50 PM »
If we win the next 3 matches,from memory gets us to 72 points,all 3 are win able with 2 at home,doesn't that get us to a similar number of points that 6 place ended up after 46 games?
We will still have 10 matches to play.
I don't know where I'm going with this,help me.
102 points  :P