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Author Topic: Promotion race 2018/2019  (Read 9941 times)

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Offline Sted1990

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Promotion race 2018/2019
« on: March 02, 2019, 08:37:17 AM »
I don’t think we have a promotion topic so I thought why not.

So it’s looking like the play offs? However we all know in this league 2 results and things can change so quickly.
My biggest concerns about the play offs would be taking on a Middlesbrough side who under Pulis have beat us twice this season.
With the majority of the harder games out the way I still won’t rule out automatic promotion as if we go on a run then who knows, but first let’s secure a play off place.

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2019, 10:58:05 AM »
For automatic promotion we need to win 10 of the last 11 games. Not going to happen. We should be fine for play offs.
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Offline east-stand-nick

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2019, 11:48:48 AM »
Teams below us winning their games in hand will give us just a 3 point cushion from 7th. Play-offs are certainly not a foregone conclusion.

Offline seteefeet

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2019, 11:57:54 AM »
Teams below us winning their games in hand will give us just a 3 point cushion from 7th. Play-offs are certainly not a foregone conclusion.
Last night was painful yes, but perspective still needed. We had won 7 from 8 away games prior to that. I still think we will comfortably finish top 6.
Don't think we'll go up though as the players don't seem to have the bottle any more and the manager is struggling to find consistently without player of the season Harvey Barnes.

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2019, 12:02:34 PM »
Last night was painful yes, but perspective still needed. We had won 7 from 8 away games prior to that. I still think we will comfortably finish top 6.
Don't think we'll go up though as the players don't seem to have the bottle any more and the manager is struggling to find consistently without player of the season Harvey Barnes.


I think we'll win 7 or 8 of the remaining games and rue the home form since ironically the Leeds game. Play Offs is a lottery but on our day we're easily the best side likely to be in them. Would love to beat Sheffield United in them.
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Offline 17GD

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2019, 01:00:16 PM »
The shocking thing is that if the teams below us win their games in hand, they'll be within a win of catching us. If we lose to Ipswich, which if we're honest could easily happen, we may even lose momentum to make the playoffs.

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2019, 01:03:42 PM »
The shocking thing is that if the teams below us win their games in hand, they'll be within a win of catching us. If we lose to Ipswich, which if we're honest could easily happen, we may even lose momentum to make the playoffs.


Highly, highly unlikely. Big overreaction.
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Offline garry

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2019, 01:09:33 PM »
The highest points total needed for the play-off in recent years was 80 in 2016/17, though this year I think 72 will secure a top six place.
We're currently on 60 with 11 games left.

Offline 17GD

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2019, 01:12:21 PM »

Highly, highly unlikely. Big overreaction.

That's why I used the word "if".  ::)

Offline baggiemart

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2019, 01:12:33 PM »

I think we'll win 7 or 8 of the remaining games and rue the home form since ironically the Leeds game. Play Offs is a lottery but on our day we're easily the best side likely to be in them. Would love to beat Sheffield United in them.

I don't know where you get that idea from. 

The top 5 teams that we have played this season - 1st half of the season we won 4 (Norwich, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Bristol City)  lost 1 ( Middlesboro).

But in the 2nd half of the season we have lost 3 ( leeds, sheff utd and Middlesboro) and drew 1 ( Norwich) with still 1 team to play.

So I would say we are probably going to be the weakest team in the play offs.

It's still not a done deal either that we will be in the pay offs.

We have awkward away matches at Bristol City, Derby and Brentford.

We have potential banana skins at home against Birmingham, Swansea, Hull and Preston . 3 of which are fighting to get into the play offs.

Then we have away matches at Millwall and Reading who are fighting against relegation.

The way we are playing and how other teams have worked out how to play against us , it could be tough !!

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2019, 01:16:58 PM »
The highest points total needed for the play-off in recent years was 80 in 2016/17, though this year I think 72 will secure a top six place.
We're currently on 60 with 11 games left.


We'd need 88 for Automatic I surmise which allows us to drop only 5 more points, as I said not going to happen, agree though, 12/14 more points will get us play offs this year.


I don't know where you get that idea from. 

The top 5 teams that we have played this season - 1st half of the season we won 4 (Norwich, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Bristol City)  lost 1 ( Middlesboro).

But in the 2nd half of the season we have lost 3 ( leeds, sheff utd and Middlesboro) and drew 1 ( Norwich) with still 1 team to play.

So I would say we are probably going to be the weakest team in the play offs.

It's still not a done deal either that we will be in the pay offs.

We have awkward away matches at Bristol City, Derby and Brentford.

We have potential banana skins at home against Birmingham, Swansea, Hull and Preston . 3 of which are fighting to get into the play offs.

Then we have away matches at Millwall and Reading who are fighting against relegation.

The way we are playing and how other teams have worked out how to play against us , it could be tough !!


You're right we're going to lose every game.


We only need 4 wins and a draw to get in the play-offs, I said on our day: That's where I get it from, we haven't turned up against Sheff Utd or Leeds, I expect us to put that right next couple of weeks. Phillips transforms this side.
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Offline Albion79

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2019, 02:38:03 PM »
The issue would be against the better teams when the pressure was on we have come up short.

For us going for promotion we have now got the worst games out the way and I expect us to just about win enough games to make the play offs but it just papers over the cracks of the last month when we had the chance to lay down a maker as we approach the last part of the season, beat those around us when it counted and cement a top 2 place, we came up short and showed we are not good enough.

I have seen nothing from this group of players to suggest they can handle the pressure of the play offs, a Sheffield United, Middlesbrough, possibly even Forest would be too savvy for us, a Leeds would be too much for us over two games.

Our best bet would be to play a Derby or Bristol City who seem to blow hot and cold but are bit more expansive which would possibly suit us more than the other teams we could play (though i think whoever we play the pressure would be too much and we would bottle it)

Offline Sted1990

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2019, 03:12:53 PM »
2 games and everything changes. Leeds VS Sheffield United is prior to Brentford away, it’ll be interesting to see where we are come 5pm that day. Talk of us not making the plays offs is very premature, we would have to fall apart in March.

Offline Sted1990

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2019, 05:22:35 PM »
Derby, Bristol and Middlesbrough get 2 points between them.
Play offs look very very likely.

Offline mulliganstired

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2019, 06:14:43 PM »
We basically have a free hit now, I can't see us not making the playoffs, especially after todays results.  We must have the nerve to go all out every game, starting with Ipswich, even if it means going back to 352.  Murphy, Gayle and Phillips on the pitch every second they are fit, 9 wins might still make automatic.

Offline Standaman

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2019, 11:28:58 PM »
Looking at the table tonight I don't think we will catch Norwich. We might overhaul Leeds and Sheffield United but I think it is going to take a herculean effort I doubt anything less than 8 wins out of the remaining 11 would be enough at the moment I have to say that looks beyond us. Although if we win the next 4 then the pressure might start to tell on those ahead of us.

Equally while we are nine points off top spot we are nine points ahead of 7th I would expect us to hold our place in the top 6.
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Offline crazedwbafan18

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2019, 11:38:33 PM »
I don't know where you get that idea from. 

The top 5 teams that we have played this season - 1st half of the season we won 4 (Norwich, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Bristol City)  lost 1 ( Middlesboro).

But in the 2nd half of the season we have lost 3 ( leeds, sheff utd and Middlesboro) and drew 1 ( Norwich) with still 1 team to play.

So I would say we are probably going to be the weakest team in the play offs.

It's still not a done deal either that we will be in the pay offs.

We have awkward away matches at Bristol City, Derby and Brentford.

We have potential banana skins at home against Birmingham, Swansea, Hull and Preston . 3 of which are fighting to get into the play offs.

Then we have away matches at Millwall and Reading who are fighting against relegation.

The way we are playing and how other teams have worked out how to play against us , it could be tough !!
Crikey, this is an incredibly bleak post isn’t it 😄 I reckon we are good value for the play offs. If we win our two home games coming up we should be fine for top 6
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Offline paulosull

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2019, 02:22:46 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't make play offs and it wouldn't be a shock that Darren and Jones would still be in charge next season even under those circumstances

Offline costa blanca baggie

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2019, 05:09:45 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't make play offs and it wouldn't be a shock that Darren and Jones would still be in charge next season even under those circumstances
Way too many points left to win and lose for every club at this point to even consider giving up. I love the fact that, even after two disappointing results, nothing is assured. So many twists and turns to go yet. Keep the faith. COYB.
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Offline baggiemart

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2019, 12:48:22 PM »
Crikey, this is an incredibly bleak post isn’t it 😄 I reckon we are good value for the play offs. If we win our two home games coming up we should be fine for top 6

Sometimes you have be realistic.  Have you witnessed our home form recently ???

I'm even reading posts about how people think we will still get automatic !!! 

Well if they really believe put all your money on it  9/4 at Skybet for promotion .

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2019, 12:53:19 PM »
Sometimes you have be realistic.  Have you witnessed our home form recently ???

I'm even reading posts about how people think we will still get automatic !!! 

Well if they really believe put all your money on it  9/4 at Skybet for promotion .


It's not realistic, despite our home form we're still right in it, the last time we played any of the poorer sides at home we won, we're despatching teams away from home, Friday's aberration aside. Ipswich, Swansea and Blues at home and Brentford away will see us heavy favourites in all those games, no reason to think we won't take 10 to 12 points. That takes us into April feeling much more positive.


Of course the sky could fall in as you seem to be predicting, but I doubt it.
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Offline baggiemart

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2019, 12:59:53 PM »

It's not realistic, despite our home form we're still right in it, the last time we played any of the poorer sides at home we won, we're despatching teams away from home, Friday's aberration aside. Ipswich, Swansea and Blues at home and Brentford away will see us heavy favourites in all those games, no reason to think we won't take 10 to 12 points. That takes us into April feeling much more positive.


Of course the sky could fall in as you seem to be predicting, but I doubt it.


of course you are right  -   Brentford , Sheffield Wednesday at home  -  they weren't despatched. So why do you think Blues, Hull, Preston etc will be ??

Since we beat Leeds at Home we have only won once against a poor Wigan team.

It's no good being heavy favourites , we need to do the talking on the pitch.

I will have to see what the odds are for the sky falling in !!!

Offline liverbaggie

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2019, 01:18:28 PM »
It only takes Norwich and Leeds and sheffu to lose a match draw a game,play each other etc and us to win and promo is back on it's not all doom and gloom,yes past 2 very poor but that must be the springboard to bounce straight back to winning ways,also at this stage I don't care how as long as the results a win.
Were still fourth somehow and I don't think we've played well as a team all season apart from one or two games.
Because of the damage incurred throughout the club by the two P,s,this season was always going to be massive and Dave et all are bringing back the crowds to be proud of our club again not a laughing stock.
Have the top 3 hit bad patches yet?
They can get nervous because there's only one way for them to go and that's down we've got something to chase like the relay runner in second place coming off the final bend,know what I mean?
The best is yet to come for us be positive not negative.

Offline tuamigos

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #23 on: March 03, 2019, 03:02:36 PM »
 Automatic isn't yet out of reach but will need a complete turnaround of fortunes, I would expect a play off place
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Offline TiptonThrostle

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Re: Promotion race 2018/2019
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2019, 09:01:50 AM »
Sometimes you have be realistic.  Have you witnessed our home form recently ???

I'm even reading posts about how people think we will still get automatic !!! 

Well if they really believe put all your money on it  9/4 at Skybet for promotion .

Exactly.

Automatic Promotion is over. Because of the last 2 games it is gone and we have bottled it. to get automatic we would have to win 9 out of the last 11 realistically and hope for the others to drop serious points.

not going to happen when weve won once at home in 4 months.

We are going to limp into the play offs.