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Offline frazzle

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If we don’t go up
« on: February 09, 2019, 08:05:56 AM »
Now don’t get me wrong - I’m desperate for us to win every game and get promoted. But what if we don’t?

Having seen the youth players I’m quite excited at the prospect of not going up and basing our squad around our youth. Failure to go up would mean we would lose a big chunk of the squad I think, but with some decent youth players already in the team, if we didn’t go up I’d be quite excited to see what sort of a team we could put together, built around our youth. We could easily see 4 or 5 youth players in our starting 11 every week.

So for me, not going up wouldn’t necessarily be doomsday. 

Offline iwastherein68

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2019, 08:13:54 AM »
Pretty much summed up my feelings. In fact as I have previously stated, when we went down i hoped for a clearout of the old brigade and the building of a new young team.
I cannot see how we can survive in the Prem with our current group (our own players) and limited funds to reinforce the squad. Better surely to build a team with a fighting chance of survival and progression.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2019, 08:28:49 AM by iwastherein68 »
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Offline mulliganstired

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2019, 08:22:54 AM »
I put this on the Moore thread 45 secs before this one was started -

We must have a plan for not going up, and Moore taking the young players forward with a few careful signings assuming we lose Rodriguez, Gibbs and Dawson and all the loan players would be my preference.

Offline frazzle

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2019, 09:09:49 AM »
I put this on the Moore thread 45 secs before this one was started -

We must have a plan for not going up, and Moore taking the young players forward with a few careful signings assuming we lose Rodriguez, Gibbs and Dawson and all the loan players would be my preference.

I saw that after I’d posted. At my age it takes me longer than 45 secs to post :). I do think we have a good nucleus to build around for next year, but we would still need a lot of players.

Offline wba_1996

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2019, 09:36:10 AM »
We'd really struggle, make no mistake. We've chosen the short-term option in virtually every decision since appointing Pulis. The squad is getting broken up next summer regardless of what league we're in. It's why I'm so critical of Moore, all our eggs are in this season's basket.

We're off the pace as it is, and that's with the best squad in the league full of PL experience.

Offline mulliganstired

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2019, 09:51:13 AM »
I saw that after I’d posted. At my age it takes me longer than 45 secs to post :). I do think we have a good nucleus to build around for next year, but we would still need a lot of players.
I think our chances of going up are about 50/50 now, we might go on a fantastic run if the new signings click and get in the automatic places, but a play off place could also slip out of our hands if we keep conceding 3 goals at home.  The play offs themselves are basically a lottery anyway.  So we have got have a contingency plan that could involve settling in the champ for a few seasons, building on the academy and hopefully being regular contenders like Derby/Norwich - the alternative could be Bolton's dire predicament, and how will Stoke/Swansea/Villa cope financially if they don't go back up this season?


Offline LiamTheBaggie

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2019, 09:57:40 AM »
The only positive to not going up is that next season we can build a squad around the likes of Harper, Field, Fitzwater and other promising graduates. No more reliance and contracts to the likes of Brunt, Barry and Morrison

The likes of Dawson, Hegazi, Rodriguez, Livermore, Gibbs would be sold to make some money for Moore to utilise to rebuild a squad.

Will be a real test of Luke Dowling and his abilities because we would undoubtedly need some smart recruitment. I guess it will be reminiscent of Mowbrays second season where we rebuilt wisely with clever recruitment once the big earners had been shipped out.
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Offline Standaman

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2019, 10:35:50 AM »
I think regardless of the Division we find ourselves there is going to be a lot of decisions to be made on players and fairly significant rebuild is on the cards.

In the scenario where we don't get promoted I think a lot of the Senior Pro's move on although not everyone that you might expect and the loanees return to their clubs.

Obviously the younger players will be pushed forward. We will also return to the loan market and while I know lots of posters on here don't like it there is a source of talent that we cannot afford to ignore because our rivals won't that is for sure. 

I am far from dismayed at this prospect. Given that we would be recruiting to a clear shape and pattern of play I would hope that we end up with a better balanced squad even if we don't have quite the same level of individual talent. Norwich are doing well on the back of this even though their squad on paper is less strong than it was last year, although finding a Pukki (remember you would have been underwhelmed had we signed him at the start of the season) would certainly help.

I think our chances of going up are about 50/50 now, we might go on a fantastic run if the new signings click and get in the automatic places, but a play off place could also slip out of our hands if we keep conceding 3 goals at home.  The play offs themselves are basically a lottery anyway.  So we have got have a contingency plan that could involve settling in the champ for a few seasons, building on the academy and hopefully being regular contenders like Derby/Norwich - the alternative could be Bolton's dire predicament, and how will Stoke/Swansea/Villa cope financially if they don't go back up this season?



Without knowing the detail of the other club's financial position I would generally rather be in our position i.e. 40% chance of promotion this year compared to less than 10% and our financial position is okay going forward.

 Bolton is a whole different class of mess but then again they were relegated with substantial debt and never were able to balance the books. Stoke are in a similar position to Villa a couple of seasons ago. They have gambled on promotion and lost the question is do they stick or twist? Sooner or latter they have to take drastic action on that squad and it's wage bill.

Villa gambled and lost. Twisted ,lost, doubled down and lost again, they are now pretty much broke it's 4am the Casino closes in an hour and they have their taxi fare on the table hoping to get out of it. They will have to make some player sales to balance the books otherwise they will be in all sorts of bother with FFP.

Swansea were losing £400k a week in the Premier League some of the contracts they gave players were truly horrendous and they didn't have relegation clauses in them. To some degree they have taken the hit this season out of necessity but overall if I were not in the mix for promotion I would rather be in their position than Stokes but I would rather be in contention for promotion.
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Offline OldburyWBA

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2019, 11:09:28 AM »
The only positive to not going up is that next season we can build a squad around the likes of Harper, Field, Fitzwater and other promising graduates. No more reliance and contracts to the likes of Brunt, Barry and Morrison

The likes of Dawson, Hegazi, Rodriguez, Livermore, Gibbs would be sold to make some money for Moore to utilise to rebuild a squad.

Will be a real test of Luke Dowling and his abilities because we would undoubtedly need some smart recruitment. I guess it will be reminiscent of Mowbrays second season where we rebuilt wisely with clever recruitment once the big earners had been shipped out.

Guarantee Brunt will be given a new deal, Morrison will take up the 2nd year of his but Barry the one of the 3 who we would be better keeping to help the young kids through will go and they will not have that central midfield experience to guide them.
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Offline silver surfer

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2019, 11:20:47 AM »
Villa gambled and lost. Twisted ,lost, doubled down and lost again, they are now pretty much broke it's 4am the Casino closes in an hour and they have their taxi fare on the table hoping to get out of it.
Great analogy made me chuckle.
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Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2019, 02:46:11 PM »
The only one of our youngsters currently capable of playing regularly in a team at the top end of this division is Harper, who isn't contracted to the club next year. Disaster if we don't go up and we're left to rely on these lads.
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Offline OldburyWBA

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2019, 02:52:19 PM »
Field now they've stopped the messing around with him as a centre half and put him back in the middle is showing he is capable of being in a side at the top of this division just as much as Harper just as he showed when called upon last season (Pardew time apart when he was hung out to dry) that he is capable at the higher level, natural central midfielder who can tackle and pass a ball who also has an excellent player with the experience of Barry to learn from.

Barry, Harper and Field have done well recently along with Hoolahan in his cameos and now with Livermore and Johansen the midfield looks better than it has done all season.
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Offline WBAinDEVON

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2019, 02:53:24 PM »
we will be in this league for many seasons to come
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Offline Fritzl Palace

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2019, 02:53:30 PM »
The only one of our youngsters currently capable of playing regularly in a team at the top end of this division is Harper, who isn't contracted to the club next year. Disaster if we don't go up and we're left to rely on these lads.

You occasionally absolutely nail it, and have done here. I agree with you entirely. I am all for playing the kids...if they are good enough, but of the current crop, I would only have faith in Harper to be in that bracket. Field has regressed, Fitzwater was recalled and I am guessing no one higher than Walsall wanted him, Leko has no end product, Edwards burns brightly and fades just as quickly, the two lads that came on the other night are pure potential.

We need promotion this season

Offline Nice1Cyrille

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2019, 02:58:04 PM »
The only one of our youngsters currently capable of playing regularly in a team at the top end of this division is Harper, who isn't contracted to the club next year. Disaster if we don't go up and we're left to rely on these lads.
Have to agree, if we are left with these youngsters as the backbone or our team then I see us in this division for many seasons to come. Without the cash injection of the PL we will just become a mediocre team like so many before us.

Offline gazberg

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2019, 02:58:39 PM »
Yep we are proper screwed if we don't go up. The squad isn't good enough once all our 'PL' players leave. I also fear our board will resort to try to holding onto the likes of Brunt and Mozza who are not value for money anymore even in the champo.

Offline Albion79

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2019, 03:24:14 PM »
Its a tough one as i know for the clubs benefit they need to go up ASAP for financial reasons.

However as a fan i would be quite happy to stay in this league for another year or two after this, be entertained, build a new younger squad if thats what it takes and then hopefully go up.

I know quite a few Villa fans and the first season they were down they enjoyed it, it was a new experience, last season the same, however this season they are desperate to get back up, not only for financial reasons but they also want the buzz of playing the big games again.

I feel like that now, i am bored stupid of the premier league after largely 8 seasons of making up the numbers, i want some excitement and enjoyment because that is partly what football is supposed to  involve (plus all the other emotions) and i have started to get that buzz back again a bit this season.

If we got promoted this season i would not be the least big excited, the premier league good memories are few and combined with no effort to do well in the cups (despite their being no excuse when you are comfortable mid table premier league) the whole thing still p****s me off, however i would hope in a couple of years time, similar to the Villa fans, i would be desperate to get back up again.

Of course the above is all very idealistic and you cant pick and choose when you get promoted, the risk of the above is you do never make it back and become a graveyard club in the championship like a Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday, Forest, etc never really look like going up or down and you become a nothing championship club instead of a nothing premier league club (though Ipswich may break that trend this year!)

However being in the premier league made me bored of the Albion and also start to get fedup of football in general and i didnt like that feeling so i would happily take the risk of not being promoted so if we dont go up, thats fine with me! 

Offline AlbionFan

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2019, 03:33:02 PM »
Much as I like the fact we are competitive in this league, I fear that if we don't get promoted, not only will we lose some of our better more experienced player, but I think the vultures will be circling round our better younger players also. And a major rebuild that could take years to bear fruit
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Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2019, 03:36:37 PM »
Much as I like the fact we are competitive in this league, I fear that if we don't get promoted, not only will we lose some of our better more experienced player, but I think the vultures will be circling round our better younger players also. And a major rebuild that could take years to bear fruit


Correct, we won't be competitive in this division next season.
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Offline Adamstv

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2019, 03:54:59 PM »

Correct, we won't be competitive in this division next season.

Agree with this 100%. I don’t mind going up and coming down again - at least we would have some cash to build again. Enjoying the championship but need to go back to the greed league even for 1 season

Offline overseas baggie

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2019, 09:25:28 PM »

Correct, we won't be competitive in this division next season.

Our parachute payment next season is only £8m lower than this season. Why are people panicking? Sell Rondon and half his fee covers the income reduction. It’s the season after that when everything changes.

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2019, 09:26:22 PM »
Our parachute payment next season is only £8m lower than this season. Why are people panicking? Sell Rondon and half his fee covers the income reduction. It’s the season after that when everything changes.


Lai will not spend ANY money, our parachute payments go on our wages.
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Offline Adder

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2019, 10:13:18 PM »

Lai will not spend ANY money, our parachute payments go on our wages.
Lai wants us to be self financing and hopefully that doesn't mean he (that is we) won't spend anything. If we sell 3,4 or more of Rondon, Phillips, Rodriguez, Livermore, Dawson, Hegazi, Gibbs, I would expect us to have some options lined up to replace them ...less high profile players yes but targeted replacements and loans to supplement the younger players and any others that remain.

Offline overseas baggie

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2019, 10:26:50 PM »

Lai will not spend ANY money, our parachute payments go on our wages.

My point is that Lai doesn’t need to. We will simply have £8m
less income compared with this year and that shortfall will be covered twice over by selling Rondon.  Nothing else changes.

Offline TheJacko2000

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Re: If we don’t go up
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2019, 10:28:56 PM »
My point is that Lai doesn’t need to. We will simply have £8m
less income compared with this year and that shortfall will be covered twice over by selling Rondon.  Nothing else changes.


But we haven't spent anything this year (really). Selling Rondon, not to mention Rodriguez, Livermore, Dawson, Gibbs and Hegazi won't bring in anything that will be passed on to Darren to spend.
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