Author Topic: Guochuan Lai  (Read 1337471 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Astle1968

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 759
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6400 on: October 06, 2020, 10:20:32 AM »
I don't actually have a huge issue with Lai. My only real concern is that he doesn't really seem to care or be bothered about the club and I'd prefer a more hands on owner like Peace. However I'd much rather him leave the running of the club to others rather than try to interfere, especially from afar. Off the top of my head theres at least half a dozen other owners in the league I'd like less than Lai. For example I'm sure Fulham fans are buzzing this morning, but I'd take Lai over that clown any day.

Again, possibly not a popular opinion (especially the way the game is going) but I've never been bothered about an owner investing his own funds in to the club. As long as the club spends the money it self generates sensibly then I'm happy enough. If we have £40m to spend I'd be just an angry if we spent £80m as I would if we spent £20m.

More of an issue for me is how we go about our business. I still believe (possibly naively) that clubs can self generate their own funds and run without a billionaire throwing money around and can still compete in the PL. However it's borderline farcical that we have such a limited budget, but yet shop almost exclusively in the most expensive market in world football.

Whilst we will never be a top 8 side running like we are at the moment theres no reason why we couldn't be a solid mid table team. However to do this we would need to sign good youngish players from cheaper markets, develop them for 2/3 years and then sell on at a huge price before reinvesting. I know some fans think talk like this is negative and as we are the mighty Albion we shouldn't be talking about selling players but ultimately thats the best model for us long term. If you look at all the players we have signed in the last few years then theres only really Pereira, Diangana, Furlong, Ajayi and Kipre who even have the potential to be sold on for a profit.


boinging_along

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3887
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6401 on: October 06, 2020, 11:00:11 AM »
If as owner he and the chairman have set the budget for this summer at around £25m and Bilic and Dowling have gone out and spent most of it on one player then I'm afraid the blame lies with those responsible for recruiting players and not with those setting the budget.

I don't buy that really.  That £18m has a lot of future value regardless of this season - 1 of 3 things will happen. 

1) He'll either be crutial in us staying up, in which case that money was well spent. 
2) If we go down we'll could keep him and have one of the best players in the Championship, important for a promotion push.
3) If we will sell him, we'll most likely get at least our money back if not more, worst case £10-£15m.  His value isn't going to crash to zero.

So that £18m isn't really like having £25m and only having £7m left.  It's more like buying a asset that will retain, if not increase in value.  It's about cash flow and that shouldn't be an issue to a 'well run' club with the Prem money behind us.

DaveWBA

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 8648
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6402 on: October 06, 2020, 11:08:55 AM »
I don't buy that really.  That £18m has a lot of future value regardless of this season - 1 of 3 things will happen. 

1) He'll either be crutial in us staying up, in which case that money was well spent. 
2) If we go down we'll could keep him and have one of the best players in the Championship, important for a promotion push.
3) If we will sell him, we'll most likely get at least our money back if not more, worst case £10-£15m.  His value isn't going to crash to zero.

So that £18m isn't really like having £25m and only having £7m left.  It's more like buying a asset that will retain, if not increase in value.  It's about cash flow and that shouldn't be an issue to a 'well run' club with the Prem money behind us.

I agree that it was a deal that needed to be made if possible purely for the resale value. Dowling knows Lai isn't putting a penny in himself, so it makes sense to try and generate some cash through transfers.

boinging_along

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3887
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6403 on: October 06, 2020, 11:16:47 AM »
I agree that it was a deal that needed to be made if possible purely for the resale value. Dowling knows Lai isn't putting a penny in himself, so it makes sense to try and generate some cash through transfers.

Yeah.  I agree to that - it's just that I don't see the point really if we're happy to blow the chance we've currently got.  If we went down, sold our best assets, somehow assembled a team that came straight back up - are we in a better position than this year?  Or will we just do the same again? 

Basically, I can't see what our long term plan is if that plan involves steadying ourselves in the Premiership.

DaveWBA

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 8648
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6404 on: October 06, 2020, 11:22:20 AM »
Yeah.  I agree to that - it's just that I don't see the point really if we're happy to blow the chance we've currently got.  If we went down, sold our best assets, somehow assembled a team that came straight back up - are we in a better position than this year?  Or will we just do the same again? 

Basically, I can't see what our long term plan is if that plan involves steadying ourselves in the Premiership.

We make a profit from yo-yoing. Lai may well be happy to keep collecting promotion bonus followed by parachute payments.

seteefeet

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3061
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6405 on: October 06, 2020, 11:51:27 AM »
Does Lai make money from the club??
I may be really simplifying things, as I'm not up on football finance, but, if he makes £30m for 7 seasons, without putting anything in, then hasn't he made a profit on his investment?

If not, then I still have no clue what his motivation was in buying us in the first place, and over the pages and pages on this thread, I don't think anyone has categorically answered that question.

If he puts nothing in, takes nothing out then hasn't he just chucked £180m at something he has no interest in?

WBAinDEVON

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 18493
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6406 on: October 06, 2020, 12:06:30 PM »
don't suppose there's another free beer going is there
Born and Bred in Oak Road West Bromwich B71   Est in the swinging sixties

Astle1968

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 759
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6407 on: October 06, 2020, 12:40:51 PM »
Does Lai make money from the club??
I may be really simplifying things, as I'm not up on football finance, but, if he makes £30m for 7 seasons, without putting anything in, then hasn't he made a profit on his investment?

If not, then I still have no clue what his motivation was in buying us in the first place, and over the pages and pages on this thread, I don't think anyone has categorically answered that question.

If he puts nothing in, takes nothing out then hasn't he just chucked £180m at something he has no interest in?

Finances in football don't really interest me so I could be completely wrong on this but...

I think at the time he was looking to buy the club the Chinese government were actively encouraging wealthy people like Lai to invest in football, both in China and overseas. Lai probably hoped to make some money over time by owning Albion, but probably in the short/medium term would make just as much through his other businesses with the extra political power/favour that came with owning us and the doors owning a club can open.

Then shortly after the takeover the Chinese government did a 180 turnaround and tightened the rules on Chinese clubs spending fortunes on overseas players, and also on nationals investing overseas. However I think the initial investment in Albion was probably at least 50/50 made between football reasons and political ones, and in reality probably skewed higher towards the non footballing reasons.

Astle1968

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 759
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6408 on: October 06, 2020, 12:49:44 PM »
Finances in football don't really interest me so I could be completely wrong on this but...

I think at the time he was looking to buy the club the Chinese government were actively encouraging wealthy people like Lai to invest in football, both in China and overseas. Lai probably hoped to make some money over time by owning Albion, but probably in the short/medium term would make just as much through his other businesses with the extra political power/favour that came with owning us and the doors owning a club can open.

Then shortly after the takeover the Chinese government did a 180 turnaround and tightened the rules on Chinese clubs spending fortunes on overseas players, and also on nationals investing overseas. However I think the initial investment in Albion was probably at least 50/50 made between football reasons and political ones, and in reality probably skewed higher towards the non footballing reasons.

Quick google

https://intelligence.globalsportsjobs.com/why-the-chinese-invest-in-european-football-

https://offthepitch.com/a/football-being-used-further-chinese-interest-uk-infrastructure

Few lines

'Most Chinese investors have not simply sought to involve themselves in football because of their love of the game. Rather they are using their position to vigorously market their own products'

'Of all sports, football became the key driver. Almost certainly this was due to three major factors. Firstly, it was essential, politically, economically, culturally, and patriotically, to be involved in sports – China’s 13 th five-year plan had made that plain. Secondly, football is the passion of President Xi Jinping and many Chinese billionaires saw the political advantages that association with football might provide. Thirdly, football is the most watched game in the world, making up more than 40 per cent of profits in the entire sports industry. To ignore football was to ignore a large part of the sporting world.'

'It also reported that railway construction is seen as a priority sector by the Chinese government in its bid to increase sales abroad and to extend its “Belt and Road Initiative” deeper into Europe.
One of the main hubs of the HS2-network is the West Midlands, where Birmingham in particular will play a significant role. Wolverhampton, where former HS2-contractor Carillon had its headquarters, also lies in the West Midlands. From a football perspective it then becomes interesting to note that three of the six clubs in the Premier League and Championship that have significant Chinese ownership - Wolverhampton, Birmingham and West Bromwich Albion - all lie in the Birmingham area.'

leeiswba

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 2966
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6409 on: October 06, 2020, 01:08:38 PM »
I’m struggling to see what the future holds to be honest, it looks like we may both just be stuck with eachother.

One worrying thing is, and I know I’m looking seasons ahead is that if we get relegated and don’t come up within 2 years it will go back to what the 90s were like I think. It is impossible really to be self sufficient in the championship without parachute payments and compete.

Look at reading for instance, they are spending something like 170% of their turnover on wages. So even teams like that will be paying millions more in wages than us if we don’t receive parachute payments as we won’t (and rightly so) be spending money we haven’t got.

Only thing that could help us is if a rule is brought in like you can only spend 60-70% of your turnover on wages

Droitwich Baggie

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7468
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6410 on: October 06, 2020, 03:31:54 PM »
Does he want us to go out on the streets with a begging bowl?

baggie38

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3897
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6411 on: October 06, 2020, 03:47:13 PM »
Say all you want about peace the bloke was hands on I've been told by many he knew everyone's name and everyone's role at the club. Lai probably doesn't know how the club runs day to day and he never will. Sooner he leaves the better off we will be.

alex1

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3648
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6412 on: October 06, 2020, 03:54:46 PM »
Trouble is its all guesswork on our part, because Lai doesn't communicate very well, or even at all. His deputy on the board "Ken", even less. Maybe that tells its own story.
It points to these people not being very knowledgable about football.  As I've said elsewhere, football is not just another industry, like running a carpet business.  It has its own rules and it helps if the owner knows something about the leagues, the players and the ins and outs of a footballclub on a day to day basis.

That's why I preferred JP as the main man (in spite of appointing Pulis). At least he was a fan with an affinity with the area and its people. I think its a pity Jenkins has stepped back as he has genuine business experience of running the club, but at least good to know he still seems available for advice albeit without any of the responsibilities. 
Einstein: A definition of insanity- someone who takes the same action time after time, even though previously it's always ended in failure

darbolina

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Offline
  • ****

  • 1157
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6413 on: October 06, 2020, 04:06:19 PM »
I agree fully with Baggie38, no matter what opinion you have of Peace, he genuinely tried to find ways to progress us within a tight budget and he did this significantly over the years. Lai on the other hand seems to have no clue, no interest and no money - the worst combination possible. The sooner he's out of the club the better probably for him too not just us.

For some reason, our recent 'football strategy' has also meant we're shopping in an expensive market with pennies, letting promising young players go for little after letting them sign shorter contracts. If you have a small budget, why not at least try to be  a bit creative e.g. set up a scouting network or relationships to make use of cheaper markets in Eastern Europe, Portugal or wherever they are these days to either make a profit or develop a squad as many teams are doing. In the past couple of years alone, we've seen players bought by others who've gone on to develop very well but in the same period we've stuck to GB and ROI players who are overpriced - is this Dowling/ Jenkins or Lai (not sure Lai has any idea so I think I know the answer)?

Anyway, this will be a circular argument until Lai accepts a loss and sells us on or unless he decides to employ a Dan Ashworth who has a vision...............

Hull Baggie

  • Global Moderator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 5649
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6414 on: October 06, 2020, 04:32:53 PM »
I’m struggling to see what the future holds to be honest, it looks like we may both just be stuck with each other.

One worrying thing is, and I know I’m looking seasons ahead is that if we get relegated and don’t come up within 2 years it will go back to what the 90s were like I think. It is impossible really to be self sufficient in the championship without parachute payments and compete.

Look at reading for instance, they are spending something like 170% of their turnover on wages. So even teams like that will be paying millions more in wages than us if we don’t receive parachute payments as we won’t (and rightly so) be spending money we haven’t got.

Only thing that could help us is if a rule is brought in like you can only spend 60-70% of your turnover on wages

I tend to agree that we are pretty much stuck with each other. I just hope we don't end up in a situation like Hull City.
Dexy : Dudleylad : kris_boing : LiamTheBaggie : MarkW : OldburyWBA
Hull Baggie : Political Cake : tommcneill

Albion79

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Online
  • ****

  • 1702
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6415 on: October 06, 2020, 04:36:05 PM »
I would imagine with Lai losing a big chunk of his investment when we were relegated, Dowlings remit was get us promoted within 3 seasons or you will be out of a job.

Lai would look at it that he has taken one big hit when we went down, if not back in three years his investment goes down the pan, he made it clear he wasnt going to be pumping extra money in and we would be self sustainable but i doubt he envisaged a club who had been in the premier league without too much trouble for 7 seasons would then implode and be relegated in the 8th and he would lose a lot of his initial outlay.

So i have sympathy with Dowling, he would be under huge pressure to of got the manager and players to be promoted within that three years, he did it after two, now we are there it would seem with the lack of a good budget, maybe the goal posts have been moved due to covid or other factors, or Lai wants to ringfence some of the premier league income so he has something if he ever wants to pay himself a divided.

As for Dowling, if you know you have to be promoted within a few seasons, else the club loses its value and everyday people lose jobs they rely on, you have to think about the here and now.

Thats why i think Dowling has gone British, of course some havent worked out and there are better bargains overseas, but you remove the immediate risk of not being upto speed, language, settling in, etc its a short term fix but it got the result because we got promoted.

Unfortunately with an owner who isnt going to dip into his own pocket if things get tough and who has said its being run as a business, you have to adopt the lowest risk strategy going and for Dowling that mean British players, he cant be signing players that might take a few years to come good.

I would hope during the last two seasons though that we have been setting up a good overseas scouting network so ideally we can bring bargains over and let them have time to settle in whilst also getting ready made players too, the success we have had so far are / will be still expensive, Pereira for £8m and Krov would be at least £6m i imagine, they are both good players and certainly Pereira i would think if we sold him we would make a big money but we havent quite uncovered another Mulumbu, Olsson, Odemwingie, Yacob, so i hope thats an additional path we are going down moving forward.

WorcsWBA

  • Site Donator
  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4904
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6416 on: October 06, 2020, 05:11:31 PM »
I would imagine with Lai losing a big chunk of his investment when we were relegated, Dowlings remit was get us promoted within 3 seasons or you will be out of a job.
Having achieved that, how is it then protecting Lai's investment to just go straight back down again with a whimper, as our lack of transfer activity makes it much more likely that we'll do? There are no guarantees that another promotion from the Championship is readily achievable, even whilst we've got parachute money, and we could easily have blown it entirely last season.

It's a sorry state of affairs that we're in this position now, given that we spent 8 seasons in the top flight. That should have been sufficient for us to become established there with shrewd investment, appointments and signings. Instead we've had none of the first and precious little of the others.

BalisPen

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 778
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6417 on: October 06, 2020, 05:17:00 PM »
Lai hasn't got the money to invest, plain and simple.

Easy, cheap loans have dried up in China, and any attempt he made to attract an investor has obviously failed.

I don't believe for a second his advisors and our hierarchy at the club have told him now was the time to invest in players as covid has reduced prices for level of player significantly.

The fact Brewster went for "only" £23m plus adds when the same club wasted a similar amount on McBurnie last summer says it all about prices.

TheJacko2000

  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *******

  • 13140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6418 on: October 06, 2020, 05:24:28 PM »
Lai hasn't got the money to invest, plain and simple.

Easy, cheap loans have dried up in China, and any attempt he made to attract an investor has obviously failed.

I don't believe for a second his advisors and our hierarchy at the club have told him now was the time to invest in players as covid has reduced prices for level of player significantly.

The fact Brewster went for "only" £23m plus adds when the same club wasted a similar amount on McBurnie last summer says it all about prices.

Anyone who thought the bottom was going to fall out of the transfer market was clearly wrong. Be that Jenkins or lads on here. We've got the strategy of this window entirely wrong based on a false premise and have now got a fortnight to save our season in a very limited pool...
Proud to be a Baggie. BOING BOING.

kamarasboot

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 813
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6419 on: October 06, 2020, 05:42:45 PM »
Anyone who thought the bottom was going to fall out of the transfer market was clearly wrong. Be that Jenkins or lads on here. We've got the strategy of this window entirely wrong based on a false premise and have now got a fortnight to save our season in a very limited pool...

our transfer/recruitment strategy has been wrong for the past 2/3 years - not just this window.

Anyone could see what was coming last summer - all key players on loans. we were always going to have to spend the budget just to stand still.
"He can dish it out, but He cannot take it", I once heard someone say of me. And it's true - I serve school dinners and I'm allergic to mashed potatoes.

BalisPen

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 778
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6420 on: October 06, 2020, 05:50:11 PM »
Anyone who thought the bottom was going to fall out of the transfer market was clearly wrong. Be that Jenkins or lads on here. We've got the strategy of this window entirely wrong based on a false premise and have now got a fortnight to save our season in a very limited pool...

The prices haven't dropped?

Then why did patience get man utd telles for £13m when they started off at £30m.

Bargsins where there to be had, and it could be argued we for one ourselves in GD.

Got to have the money to buy though, not pay over 30 years at 50p per year.

Our owner hasn't got a pot to pee in and I am certain he is trying to sell on on the side secretly through his new chief executive.

Albion79

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Online
  • ****

  • 1702
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6421 on: October 06, 2020, 06:15:02 PM »
Only a guess but i think Lai is in the damage limitation phase.

As stated he lost a lot of investment within a year, he probably looked at Albion and thought a nice steady investment after 7 years in the premier league upto his arrival.

I think we have gone up and now have the premier league funding back, i think he will of paid what had to be paid and put a small (ish) in premier league terms budget for the recruitment and i think after those things that would probably leave a very pot of money in the bank, i dont think that pot of money will be for a rainy day, a bit may be released in January but i think the bulk will make its way back to Lai to start repaying his investment. I know he cannot just take funds, it would all have to be done properly but at some point i think will be what happens.

I think if we stay up then its great for him as he could sell us for more money than if we went down and probably make a few quid, but i think its damage limitation now, if we go down, we will cash in on our assets, and again those funds will go towards repaying his investment, allowing for that and also the pot of money, he will then try and sell the club and just try to cover what he initially paid and get the club off his hands, i think everything will be done legal and proper and i dont think he will give a stuff what any fan thinks of him doing it.

Lai isnt a fan and we arent some play thing to try and win stuff and have a **** swinging contest with his mates, we were what seemed a steady investment for him and his backers but within 12 months that investment had gone, one way of doing it would be to of chucked another £25m at the budget and give ourselves a better chance, but then if we went down (which would still be very likely) he has paid out an extra £25m which could go eventually towards repaying him.

It seems we have gone for a approach of buying better younger players who will increase in value which i am quite happy with as a fan as i think its more exciting but i do think he hasnt released enough funds and we will come up short.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 06:27:07 PM by Hull Baggie »

TheJacko2000

  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *******

  • 13140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6422 on: October 06, 2020, 06:24:07 PM »
What pot of money? We've not got any spare money squirrelled away. We're at our absolute limit and are unwilling to borrow any more, however low the rates.
Proud to be a Baggie. BOING BOING.

paulosull

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 3580
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6423 on: October 06, 2020, 07:06:55 PM »
What pot of money? We've not got any spare money squirrelled away. We're at our absolute limit and are unwilling to borrow any more, however low the rates.
read somewhere that initially Bilic had £35 million to spend but then owner reduced it by £15 million. Lai wanted security due to covid.

TheJacko2000

  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *******

  • 13140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6424 on: October 06, 2020, 07:11:32 PM »
read somewhere that initially Bilic had £35 million to spend but then owner reduced it by £15 million. Lai wanted security due to covid.

Will need a source because it sounds like horse ****
Proud to be a Baggie. BOING BOING.