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Author Topic: Guochuan Lai  (Read 1006907 times)

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Offline royhan

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2015, 10:59:57 PM »
Good points frazzle. Cardiff's owner is a billionaire but just look what has happened under his stewardship in the last two years. In the Premiership one season with huge earners on the payroll but now in danger of relegation from the Championship 12 months later with a squad of players to match. Whoever takes over I hope they keep JP at the helm.

Offline charlebaggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2015, 11:13:55 PM »
Best news I've heard in ages bring it on!
.    WHY !!!  ?

Offline stoxman

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2015, 11:36:08 PM »
I remember the Leeds fans cheering the back of Ken Bates. Being close to GFH, David Hague, Esam Janahi etc all I could think was out of the frying pan and into the volcano.  Are there buyers out there that will satisfy Peace's financial demands? Few. Are there buyers out there who will satisfy Peace's financial demands AND "take us to the next level" as so many demand?  Very, very few in my view.

Offline Signor_Maresca

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2015, 11:49:50 PM »
FFP stops a billionaire from chucking millions into a transfer kitty now anyway, I'd treat a foreign billionaire owner with much caution, most want chuck their debt upon a club, for me JP is almost the perfect chairman for our club.
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Offline KnaveofAlbion

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2015, 11:52:42 PM »
FFP stops a billionaire from chucking millions into a transfer kitty now anyway, I'd treat a foreign billionaire owner with much caution, most want chuck their debt upon a club, for me JP is almost the perfect chairman for our club.

I too believe that, despite people claiming the club was nothing but his Piggy-Bank as he understandably drew a wage. Without JP we'd have maybe popped into the Prem once, for one season at best and more likely be where Brum are now.
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Offline overseas baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2015, 12:09:26 AM »
I used to run a couple of the Middle East's investment banks. Lived in Abu Dhabi for about 6 years and spent my life on planes around Libya, Saudi, Kuwait, Oman etc. Pretty amazing adventure. Still managed to watch my beloved Albion on Al Jazeera. When the bigger matches were on AL Jazeera 1,2,3 etc I would often find West Brom v Wigan on Al Jazeera Comedy Channel. True and very ironic...

There's been a lot of change in the Gulf recently- a new king in Saudi, a new Emir in Qatar, continued rumblings in Bahrain, the President of the UAE isn't in great health, the oil price has halved. It really isn't going to be easy finding a top money (as Peace will want) buyer today.

COYB

Absolutely right.  Big cash buyers are now more likely to come from the US, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or India at present.

Offline stoxman

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2015, 12:31:35 AM »
Absolutely right.  Big cash buyers are now more likely to come from the US, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or India at present.

Maybe. The $ strength helps a potential US buyer but the experience of US buyers hasn't been great so far in the Premier League.  Azeri and Kazakh has possibilities  (assuming that the buyer can get past the "fit and proper" test. Anti money laundering rules are much tougher now and a lot of potential buyers would struggle with these. They also have exposure to oil and that is really starting to bite. India doesn't really get football but there are plenty of people who might, just might want a toy like Albion to prove that the have made it on a global scale. Take a look at Mukesh Ambani and his $1bn house built next to a Mumbai slum. Adding a Premier League team to his trophy wall might give him something to boast about. Remember the chicken farmers that made a mess of Blackburn Rovers?...

Personally, I would look for a leveraged buy out fund. There are a few that would take Albion based on the river of cash that is coming from the new Sky deal. I would mostly use borrowed money (which is currently very cheap and easily available), spend as little as possible on players (keep Dorrans, Morrison etc) and just draw as much cash as I possibly could from the business. Not what we as fans would want at all but, in my view, this is not only the most likely potential buyer but also the one best suited to the Sky megadeal/ FFP era

Offline overseas baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2015, 01:00:19 AM »
Maybe. The $ strength helps a potential US buyer but the experience of US buyers hasn't been great so far in the Premier League.  Azeri and Kazakh has possibilities  (assuming that the buyer can get past the "fit and proper" test. Anti money laundering rules are much tougher now and a lot of potential buyers would struggle with these. They also have exposure to oil and that is really starting to bite. India doesn't really get football but there are plenty of people who might, just might want a toy like Albion to prove that the have made it on a global scale. Take a look at Mukesh Ambani and his $1bn house built next to a Mumbai slum. Adding a Premier League team to his trophy wall might give him something to boast about. Remember the chicken farmers that made a mess of Blackburn Rovers?...

Personally, I would look for a leveraged buy out fund. There are a few that would take Albion based on the river of cash that is coming from the new Sky deal. I would mostly use borrowed money (which is currently very cheap and easily available), spend as little as possible on players (keep Dorrans, Morrison etc) and just draw as much cash as I possibly could from the business. Not what we as fans would want at all but, in my view, this is not only the most likely potential buyer but also the one best suited to the Sky megadeal/ FFP era

I dont agree. There's not enough upside for a leveraged buyout fund to get interested, unless they were wanting to take all the extra TV money and I don't see Peace going for that.

If it was a leveraged buyout fund, the leverage would need to be at fund level rather than at club level because of FFP rules.

I'm aware of several from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan who've made their money only indirectly from oil, but I take your point especially re proving the source of their wealth.

Truth is we don't need a foreign multi billionaire. A successful UK businessman worth £300m to £500m (like a Coates) would do nicely.

Offline stoxman

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2015, 01:24:22 AM »
I dont agree. There's not enough upside for a leveraged buyout fund to get interested, unless they were wanting to take all the extra TV money and I don't see Peace going for that.

If it was a leveraged buyout fund, the leverage would need to be at fund level rather than at club level because of FFP rules.
r as
I'm aware of several from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan who've made their money only indirectly from oil, but I take your point especially re proving the source of their wealth.

Truth is we don't need a foreign multi billionaire. A successful UK businessman worth £300m to £500m (like a Coates) would do nicely.

Personally I believe that an LBO would work. FFP allows losses of (I think) circa £25m on a three year rolling basis. That would be more than enough to cover the interest margin. The club could then just be run for cash so long as the owner was happy to buy journeyman players on journeyman contracts. In fact, I think that an owner could make the business enormously cash generative at the expense of on pitch success.   We wouldn't be at the front of the queue for the best players but under the squad size limits the other 19 clubs can only take 725 players. That will still leave plenty who will be happy to have a run around for a leveraged and cash focused Albion. Also it's worth remembering that most FFP restrictions are focused on European competitions which isn't a big disincentive for Albion. If we dropped to the Championship we would need to get our house in order to comply with League FFP but by then an LBO could have taken a lot of money out and have moved on....

Scary thought and NOT likely to happen but believe me, the maths do work if someone wanted to do it. Would Peace sell out in this way? He would risk the wrath of Albion fans but maybe if the cheque was big enough?

Things can always be worse....

Offline WorcsWBA

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2015, 08:13:43 AM »
Peace could see the new TV deal as heralding the best opportunity he'll have to sell the club. If it hasn't been difficult enough for him to sell previously, once the deal kicks in it'll become even more difficult, as the value of Prem clubs will rocket. He's possibly seeing it as a now or never opportunity to get the absolute maximum that he can by selling the club.

Offline overseas baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #35 on: February 14, 2015, 08:21:22 AM »
Personally I believe that an LBO would work. FFP allows losses of (I think) circa £25m on a three year rolling basis. That would be more than enough to cover the interest margin. The club could then just be run for cash so long as the owner was happy to buy journeyman players on journeyman contracts. In fact, I think that an owner could make the business enormously cash generative at the expense of on pitch success.   We wouldn't be at the front of the queue for the best players but under the squad size limits the other 19 clubs can only take 725 players. That will still leave plenty who will be happy to have a run around for a leveraged and cash focused Albion. Also it's worth remembering that most FFP restrictions are focused on European competitions which isn't a big disincentive for Albion. If we dropped to the Championship we would need to get our house in order to comply with League FFP but by then an LBO could have taken a lot of money out and have moved on....

Scary thought and NOT likely to happen but believe me, the maths do work if someone wanted to do it. Would Peace sell out in this way? He would risk the wrath of Albion fans but maybe if the cheque was big enough?

Things can always be worse....


Sorry - we were at crossed purposes.  What I meant was that I couldn't see a leveraged buyout from a fund working both for the investor and for the club.  I could see it working just for the investor though.

You and I should talk.


Offline B_H_Baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2015, 09:57:48 AM »
As mentioned with the new TV deal the time is right to see if the potential for outside investment or even a sale is there. I don't see anything changing since the last time he did this though to be honest, with FFP rules in place it is designed to keep the rich clubs rich and the smaller clubs just don't matter.
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Offline paulosull

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #37 on: February 14, 2015, 10:28:47 AM »
Why hasn't anyone mentioned a fan's buyout or ishare option that would be the way to go I'd chip In a few bob buyer don't tell the wife

Offline baggiejohn

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2015, 10:45:13 AM »
Absolutely right.  Big cash buyers are now more likely to come from the US, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or India at present.

Must admit, I wondered if there was a link between a potential buyer & the recent appearance of the Kansas City Chiefs cheerleaders.
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Offline garry

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #39 on: February 14, 2015, 11:07:22 AM »
Why hasn't anyone mentioned a fan's buyout or ishare option that would be the way to go I'd chip In a few bob buyer don't tell the wife
Yes - it would only require 5,000 of us chipping in £60,000 each to raise £300 million. :D
Perhaps not. :(
« Last Edit: February 14, 2015, 11:09:17 AM by garry »

Offline zippyandbungle

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2015, 01:01:46 PM »
Sometimes you have to lose what you have to really appreciate it?
Valero
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JP
I hope that even if we are sold that he retains some status on the board ,without doubt the most important thing to happen to the Albion in modern history.
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Offline overseas baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2015, 02:43:11 PM »
Yes - it would only require 5,000 of us chipping in £60,000 each to raise £300 million. :D
Perhaps not. :(

£300m? 

Offline AlbionFan

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2015, 03:56:58 PM »
Sometimes you have to lose what you have to really appreciate it?
Valero
Odemwingie
JP
I hope that even if we are sold that he retains some status on the board ,without doubt the most important thing to happen to the Albion in modern history.

JP is on a par with Fred Everiss and his achievements and service to the club IMO
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Offline Baggie79

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2015, 05:28:22 PM »
It will be a sad sad day when Jeremy Peace leaves this club. No matter what you think of him as a person he has done a remarkable job guiding this club.
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Offline Standaman

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2015, 07:25:09 PM »
Must admit, I wondered if there was a link between a potential buyer & the recent appearance of the Kansas City Chiefs cheerleaders.

Oddly enough the Kansas City chiefs owner Clark Hunt (net worth $2bn) is the type of owner that might be tempted into the Premier League by the prospect of the river of TV money flowing into the game. His money came from oil originally but is now a sports investor owning the Chiefs and MLS team FC Dallas and has also owned MLS Columbus Crew.

Would he or any other US owner be good for us ? I cannot say other than if their motive is profit at least they won't kill the club like some of the trophy owners might.

I would echo Baggie79's sentiments concerning Peace, I hope we don't end up looking back at his tenure as a golden age.



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Offline zippyandbungle

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2015, 08:39:51 PM »
It will be a sad sad day when Jeremy Peace leaves this club. No matter what you think of him as a person he has done a remarkable job guiding this club.
Amen to that .
if he has to leave I hope he takes over at Walsall , does a similar Job and waves at the vile as they swap places..
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Offline glosterbaggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2015, 08:54:57 PM »
In my experience a US takeover leads to a company going bust sooner or later.
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Offline Brummie Road

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2015, 09:02:48 PM »

I would echo Baggie79's sentiments concerning Peace, I hope we don't end up looking back at his tenure as a golden age.

Yes, I'd agree, and personally I think Peace has done a great job for the Albion, and really hope the Peace era at the club continues for a few more years to come.

As I've said on a few occasions, it's not just about what happens on the pitch (though obviously that is very important!!), it's also about the fact that we as supporters have been treated well, certainly in terms of ticket prices, particularly for Season Ticket holders which are really good value - certainly in comparison to what many other supporters in the Prem and Championship are having to pay.

Some would argue that it's all about the team and investment in players, but for me running a football club is about a lot more than that, particularly with the community work they do as well.   

So I'd agree he's done, and continues to do, a remarkable job.

Offline glosterbaggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2015, 09:07:49 PM »
Yes, I'd agree, and personally I think Peace has done a great job for the Albion, and really hope the Peace era at the club continues for a few more years to come.

As I've said on a few occasions, it's not just about what happens on the pitch (though obviously that is very important!!), it's also about the fact that we as supporters have been treated well, certainly in terms of ticket prices, particularly for Season Ticket holders which are really good value - certainly in comparison to what many other supporters in the Prem and Championship are having to pay.

Some would argue that it's all about the team and investment in players, but for me running a football club is about a lot more than that, particularly with the community work they do as well.   

So I'd agree he's done, and continues to do, a remarkable job.
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Offline Chipperfan

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2015, 09:15:51 PM »
It will be a sad sad day when Jeremy Peace leaves this club. No matter what you think of him as a person he has done a remarkable job guiding this club.

Spot on mate. JP has done a remarkable job while around us the Vile, Blus, the Dingles and Cov gave all gone for new owners and come unstuck.

Long may he continue?
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