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Messages - Windmill Baggy

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1
Next Match Forum - 21/01 Bolton Wanderers (A) / Re: Pre Match Chat
« on: Yesterday at 05:00:01 PM »
So,assuming we win tomorrow night gives us 50 points from 28 games.
Leaving 18 matches left with maximum of 54 points ,you think that we only need say 35 points out of 54 for automatic? So we can afford to drop 19 points?( lose six and draw one)
I would think we need to get to close to 90 for auto,although I havnt looked at the last few years final finishing points.
So I think we need 40 more points,13 wins out of 18 matches.

90 points or more will mean automatic promotion, but as it stands the target for second place will be less than that. In fact the target for the title is currently less than that. Norwich are in second on 53 from 28, so they are on target for a final point tally in the late 80's, say 87 or 88, max. Things don't always work out like that though and I can see them finishing a couple of points lower than that around the mid 80's. This season anywhere from 84-86 will secure second in my opinion.


Second place points tally this century:

00-01 Bolton   - 91
01-02 WBA   - 89
02-03 Leicester - 92
03-04 WBA   - 86
04-05 Wigan   - 87

05-06 Sheffield Utd – 90
06-07 Birmingham – 86
07-08 Stoke – 79
08-09 Birmingham – 83

09-10 WBA   - 91
10-11 Norwich – 84
11-12 Southampton – 88
12-13 Hull – 79
13-14 Burnley   - 93
14-15 Watford – 89
15-16 Middlesbrough – 89
16-17 Brighton – 93
17-18 Cardiff – 90

2
General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: Yesterday at 02:54:26 PM »
The league isn't dross at all it's (about) the eighth best league in Europe. It's far from dross.

Agree that the league isn't dross, but I think the standard is slightly lower than in previous seasons.

It is as competitive as its ever been because of this. The difference in quality between say, Sheffield in 3rd and Preston in 18th, is really not that great.

This is why it wouldn't surprise me if either Norwich or Leeds have a blip and slip out of the automatics. All fixtures are tough and anybody can beat anybody else. This applies to us as well of course, no game can be taken for granted.

3
Next Match Forum - 21/01 Bolton Wanderers (A) / Re: Pre Match Chat
« on: Yesterday at 02:17:54 PM »
Your "11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses"  is 20 games. We only have 19 left.   Small margins, i know, but one fewer game makes it that much more difficult.

Whoops,  :D modified. We can still afford to lose 4 and be in with a chance of automatic.

Ultimately all the working out doesn't change the fact that a win tomorrow will leave us only 3 points off automatic with a superior goal difference to those above and needing only 3 more points than Norwich from the final 18 to finish above them. Hardly an 'impossible' aim.

The '2 points per game over a season' is always trotted out as a guide as this form will almost always see a team promoted, however it often happens that much less is needed to finish in the top 2. As even Leeds in top spot are below this target as it stands, this season is shaping up to be one of those seasons.

I fancy a point tally in the mid 80's will likely see us promoted this season.

4
Next Match Forum - 21/01 Bolton Wanderers (A) / Re: Pre Match Chat
« on: Yesterday at 12:48:57 PM »
They are all big games now.
To attain a 2 points per game average we need to win 7 on the bounce.  Then to maintain that average till the end of the season we have to get 24 points from the last 12 games.   i.e we can only afford to lose 4 more games this season. An almost impossible task.

A 2 points per games average for the whole season may not be necessary.

We will likely need 2 points per game average from the remaining 19 matches though, perhaps a point above.

11 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses for 37 more points, an 84 point finish.

That will take it to the wire and could well be enough for an automatic spot, if either Leeds or Norwich do only fractionally worse than they have done in the first 28 games, which I would say there is a fair chance of happening.

A win tomorrow will leave 10 more wins from the final 18 games to keep in with a chance.

5
General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: January 19, 2019, 06:58:32 PM »
65 mins: Swansea 1 Sheffield Utd 0

Swansea have been on top in the second half, making Sheffield look ordinary.

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General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: January 19, 2019, 04:58:13 PM »
Stoke beat Leeds 2-1. A win in Monday night will move us back within 4 points off top spot.

7
General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: January 18, 2019, 11:03:46 PM »
Autos just look a bit too difficult right now. Sad as it is to say.

Why? Win our game in hand at Bolton and the gap is back to 3 points. Norwich have games against Sheffield Utd and Leeds coming up. There's still a long way to go.

8
There seems to be an impression that if you were in the Premier League then you would be awash with money.  Well players and agents are! It's no shock to know that all our Prem money went on fees and wages.....Sturridge and The Pole were on a combined wage of about 240k per week, let's round it up to a cool £250k for the maths.  So £1 MILLION per month for the time they were here.  Add Evans and Chadli's 80k and that's well over £1.5 MILLION per month for FOUR players.  Thats why we need a loan.....

So the wages for the year on those four, plus the £15 million spent on Burke, put the club roughly £35 Million down alone?  :o

9
General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: January 17, 2019, 06:51:06 PM »
All so subjective, will boil down to how much the big 6 fear a resurgent leeds and their fanbase.

Judging by the way other 'sleeping giants' such as Newcastle and West Ham fare overall, probably not very much at all!  :D

10
General Football & Sports / Re: OFFICIAL CHAMPIONSHIP THREAD
« on: January 17, 2019, 06:48:20 PM »
Well he's been open and honest that someone has watched a training session of teams in this division.

I have no issue with that whatsoever - I find it to be rather intelligent to be honest and if anything highlights the lack of security issues with member clubs.

Bielsa produced 300 hours of footage which assessed every player and pattern of play related to Derby County.

To suggest that Leeds are where they are because they have been involved in spygate, is for the birds.

I still repeat - he has been a breath of fresh air to this division and has took the quality of football to another level.

I watched quite a lot of Championship football over the previous two seasons, and I'm not sure about this. Leeds this season are not much better than last IMO. Their players are that little bit more experienced and Bielsa's tactics and fitness regime has given their game a bit of an edge, but if their team was in the Championship last season I don't think they would be top 2.

I also don't see how Bielsa has been any more of a breath of fresh air then Jokanovic or Nuno were last season, both who got their teams playing decent football.

IMO if the Wolves team of last year were in it this time, they would win it again, and Leeds would be second best to at least one from Fulham and Cardiff if their teams were back in it, and they would also possibly (with the way they played in the second half of the season) finish behind Villa as well.

This season Villa have regressed, and so have Derby, who were in the play-offs last time, while Middlesbrough have stagnated (yet still sit in the top 6, which is telling). 2 of the relegated teams have also been average or downright poor, while even we have had our blips and struggled to maintain consistency. Overall the division is much weaker than last year, IMO.

It's also no coincidence that Sheffield Utd are up there despite having almost exactly the same squad as last season as well as the same manager, and why there are so many teams bunched together from 5th down to 15th. It is competitive this year due to a lack of overall quality.

I maintain that if we sign a replacement for Barnes, and keep our first XI fit, we will finish top 2 this season. The latter is going to be more important than the former.

11
I find it difficult to garner a firm opinion about news like this. There could be a multitude of sound financial reasons for such a loan and it could in fact be prudent business. Without the ability to go through the clubs finances with the finest of tooth combs and also inspect the loan details and the finance for the purported player loan deals, who is to know what the situation is?

Putting all that to one side, perhaps loan bids are being lined up for a couple of high profile attacking players?  ;D

12
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:42:30 PM »
I remember in the 2nd half we had a break and HRK was sprinting down the left wing, he crossed the balll to the other side of the pitch. I said to my son , if that had been Barnes I would have been out of my seat with anticipation, as it was HRK I just knew nothing would happen. Barnes would have driven for goal! That’s the difference

Yes we were missing Barnes, but we were also just as badly missing Philips, if he had played on Saturday I fancy we would have won as well.


13
Last Match Forum - 12/01 Norwich City (H) / Re: After Match Debate
« on: January 12, 2019, 07:32:47 PM »
Moore lovers or Moore haters .....rubbish, the only way anybody progresses is the ability to learn from mistakes and make the correct decisions

We are not in a bad position but that does not mean he is without faults
Brunt was better today, but he couldn't have been worse, he's not a CM ...stop it
Harper played v well, after the match Moore said he has no issues playing the youth....actions/words
Gayle, easily our best finisher, he was central for the goal, you do not play him wide to accommodate Rodriguez, sell Rodriguez if anyone comes in
Midfield was getting leggy, we had field, hoolahan and Leko that could have come on at 65-75 to give us a push....no, we sit till the 92nd minute to get Leko on

Back 4 look ok, holgate and Gibbs are our best fullback pairing for some time
But
That keeper is atrouscious , Gibbs told him so too...dreadful

Don't expect to see Phillips again, but not that bothered, honestly felt last3/4 matches him and Barnes played , they were starting to be found out , I hope we are looking at some good options, but I wouldn't let Moore loose with a chequebook.

Why not? Anything's possible I guess, but it would take a large fee (£15-20m I would have thought to have a chance of signing him) and I'm skeptical if he would risk a move to a Prem team in a relegation battle as there would be as much chance of relegation come May than there is of Albion getting promoted.

Selling him without bringing in a suitable replacement after also losing Barnes would be a disaster.

Moore's only questionable signing has been Bartley, his other moves have in my opinion been at least shrewd and in many cases very successful.

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Last Match Forum - 12/01 Norwich City (H) / Re: After Match Debate
« on: January 12, 2019, 06:11:54 PM »
Not the end of the world but still hard to take nonetheless. From where I sat both goals looked fairly similar, and we all know the quality Norwich have. Far too much faffing around today and a lot of wasteful crosses that I feel we need to work on. We should’ve punished them first half and with those 2 points dropped we have to really consolidate our playoff spot and try and keep Norwich and sheff in touching distance. Sadly both seem to have more spirit than us so playoffs look most likely.

We are only 3 points behind, a virtually irrelevant gap. We also completely outclassed Sheffield Utd at their place in December. They will be more worried about us going on a run than we will them. I wish people would get a grip.

15
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: System tactics personnel
« on: January 12, 2019, 06:06:33 PM »
The fact the only person in the world who doesn’t know this is Moore is alarming to say the least. A legend on the pitch but in the dugout, out of his depth.

The evidence from this season would suggest otherwise.

16
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Darren Moore
« on: January 12, 2019, 06:04:10 PM »
HRK/Jrod but especially HRK offer very little goal threat, Take Jrods pens away and his not even double figures, Let alone he just runs around and less said about HRK's goal record the better, I said before the game Barnes/Gayle was carrying us. Now we have only Gayle and he plays out wide!

Big Dave too nice and will babble on about learning and improving while analysing the game etc. Make subs earlier, Used to drive me mad under Roy aswell.

I just find this view to be ridiculous. Philips is more important than both. JROD has had an excellent season and performs an important role. Barry has stepped up and looks a different class in midfield. Also with the signing of Holgate we now arguably have the best back four in the division. Johnstone may be no Foster but he is as good as any keeper in this league. Despite losing both Barnes and Philips and with other injuries/suspensions we were still unfortunate not to beat the team who before today were second in the league. We're not being carried by two players by any means, we are one of the top sides in the division.

17
Last Match Forum - 12/01 Norwich City (H) / Re: After Match Debate
« on: January 12, 2019, 05:47:29 PM »

Not fair really we were crying out for fresh legs (pace) in midfield and there weren't any on the bench due to injury.


We were by far the better side and but for a stupid tackle (foul) from Gayle we take the points.


Not sure Harper did enough to keep Livermore out, though he played okay. We missed Phillip's, with Kanu and Rodriguez offering very little.


Holgate is a revelation at right back, not sure what the Everton fans are on about, and for my money we now have the best back 4 in the division. Still think the keeper is shaky at best though and clean sheets continue to allude us.


Barry and Brunt with Harper were comfortable in midfield and Gayle impressive in the Barnes role.


On to the next.

With Holgate coming in I tend to agree with the bit in bold.

It's naturally disappointing to not win after being ahead for so long but I would have taken a draw today even before the Barnes recall and the double blow of Philips being out. We were 3 points off second before today and we are still 3 points off second. If we had lost we would be 6 points behind. To not lose today was the most important thing and keeps us within touching distance. On to Bolton.

18
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 11, 2019, 11:46:03 PM »

Brunt was actually the top scorer in the Championship for us in Dorrans season. And he wasn't on penalties, Dorrans was a flat track bully who hid in the big games. Barnes isn't our best player this season never mind ever in the division.

Bingo.

19
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 11, 2019, 11:44:50 PM »
You've said it there 'Koumas at his best' - did he feature so strongly game in game out for half a season ? Barnes attacking game is all at high pace which it needs to be in the modern game. He wouldn't have had that many goals and assists if his decision making was poor.

By Koumas at his best I didn't just mean the odd performance, but during his peak years. You think that Koumas didn't feature strongly game in game out for half a season? Perhaps you're joking. Koumas was the Championship player of the 2006-2007 season, and was in the Championship team of the season on at least one other occasion.

You mention pace in the modern game. Read my post. I say that Barnes is athletic and has pace but his decision making is lacking, which in my opinion it is. Koumas was more the opposite, a highly intelligent footballer who lacked natural athleticism.

As to Barnes' decision making, I am talking about this attribute as it is applied throughout a match on every aspect of a players performance. I've seen enough of Barnes to see that he needs to improve massively in this area. In fact it's probably at least partly why he was loaned out in the first place. This improvement might come with time and experience but these things aren't guaranteed.

Barnes is not only not the best Championship player Albion have had, he's not even the best player we have this season. I'm not saying he's not going to be missed, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as what people seem to believe.

20
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: System tactics personnel
« on: January 11, 2019, 10:40:34 PM »
Yeah we do still in my honest

Our squad is more than good enough for top 2

I think we have a better squad than Sheffield Utd, Derby, Forest and possibly Norwich who would all suffer if they had a number of injuries.

I'm confident we will be top 6 and believe we can (and probably should) still challenge for top 2, but unless a replacement for Barnes is signed in the window the dent in our firepower is going to make an automatic spot much more of a battle than it would have been.

21
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 11, 2019, 10:28:36 PM »
Not at all, Barnes is Koumas with a brain.

Can't agree with that. Koumas was all footballing 'brain' carrying a lack of athleticism, speed and physicality. Barnes is naturally athletic with great acceleration and produces brief moments of class when acting on instinct, but when he has time to 'think' he quite often exhibits poor decision making. In this respect Koumas at his best was much better than Barnes.

22
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 11, 2019, 06:22:34 PM »
I honestly believe we are in a better position now than at the start of the season, the club ownership and management did not know how the team and Big Dave and staff would perform and would therefor not take any risks.

We are now in the promotion playoffs positions and have the experience of how our opponents play, their strengths and weaknesses, we know what we need and based on the first half of the year also know what players will fit the bill to strengthen our squad.

So we have lost a loan player, an unknown who probably exceeded expectations,  yes we need to replace him, I believe that as a well run club (the Baggies are) we would have planned for losing Barnes and will have already approached clubs to sound out a possible replacement.

Panic not  8)

Excellent post. I'm not going to try and pretend that losing Barnes isn't a big disappointment, but I believe he is replaceable. It would be harder to find a replacement for Philips (our true player of the season) or Gayle (the best striker in the division). Even Rodriguez offers more to the team overall than Barnes in my view and is a more complete all round player.

The team is in a strong position and it is all to play for. Even without Barnes we have one of the best starting XI's in the division and there is still close to three weeks left of this window to bring in a player or two and as you rightly say our position may induce those in charge of the purse-strings to now be a little less risk averse. DM has also intimated that the young players have a chance to stake a place in the side, so things could get interesting on that score.

Today has been a bummer for sure, but there's far from a need to panic.

23
West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Harvey Barnes (on loan from Leicester)
« on: January 11, 2019, 01:27:56 PM »
Won't get game time at Leicester as he has no interest in the dirty side of the game.


Disappointing news but certainly not the end of the world.

I agree. Barnes will be a loss no doubt, but he was but one member of a strong side and isn't that good that he is irreplaceable. I would be more gutted if we lost Philips or Gayle personally.

24
Last Match Forum - 12/01 Norwich City (H) / Re: Pre Match Chat
« on: January 09, 2019, 03:59:00 PM »
Blackburn did score direct from a corner which the goal
keeper has to accept some blame.

As others have said, it looks like he was fouled by two Blackburn players, even being bundled into the net. It's hard to say for sure though.

25
General Football & Sports / Re: Seals watch - Anything Villa
« on: January 08, 2019, 01:35:20 PM »
Awful news.

Hardly 'awful' news. As long as Albion do their bit in the last 20 games Villa's form will be irrelevant. They need to get at least 50 points from their last 20 to even have a sniff of automatic, and this with easily their best player (Grealish) missing until at least next month and a dodgy, ageing defence to try and patch over til seasons end.


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