Wolves massively overperformed statistically last seasons, things like expected goals aren't the be all and end all but the kind of overperformance Wolves had wasn't sustainable and eventually showed, they'll be struggling this season without serious transfer activity at the end of the window.
Villa will be fine for survival, there's way more than enough talent to get to 38 points. Though with the amount of resources they've had ploughed since promotion anything other than top half would have to be looked at as a serious underperformance.