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General Football & Sports / Discussion: the economics of the Yo-yo

« on: March 29, 2025, 09:20:06 AM »

Ok so as the CEO of a newly promoted club, you’re happy, ecstatic even.  Your club has achieved promotion into the sunny uplands of the English Premier League (EPL).  You know damn well there’s every likelihood that you will be relegated the very next season – recent statistics tell you that.  The relative wealth and finance of the long-standing members of this elite league make it very difficult to compete.    Finances of your rivals may be boosted by input from US backers, the odd Hedge Fund and sovereign states, some with ethics that are not spotless.

Nevertheless, you’re happy because you know that as well as the golden handshake for being promoted - let’s say ~£140M for one year’s sojourn.  When you are relegated – possibly having attained a humiliatingly low number of points – you will receive a generous pension (aka parachute payment) from the EPL.  In the first year back in the second tier, this is around 55% of the TV money  - perhaps £40M. (2023-2024 prices: expect inflation of payments and player costs)

Your cunning strategy is to partake in a promotion – relegation cycle picking up £180M each cycle.  You’ve been clever and all your players are on flex-down contracts that drastically reduce their wages on the downswing.  This cycle is known as yo-yo-ing.

However, does this cycle pay-off anymore?  Firstly the EPL might drastically alter the parachute payment regime possibly moving to a payment spread over all the 2nd tier clubs.  Secondly, the economics of it might now have changed.

Having achieved promotion, you know you have to spend a lot that golden handshake money on acquiring players that can bridge the ever-increasing gap between 1st and 2nd tier football. 
Your choice is limited.
Many players will look at your club with the knowledge that most likely it’s going to be back down in the 2nd tier the very next season. 
•   They may reject you out of hand or …
•   They can demand a short-term contract or one that stipulates they can be sold on for a very low price if that happens or ...
•   They can demand a higher than normal to unaffordable wage.

You might choose seasoned old-timers that are looking for a contract that will boost their pension pots but are not going to give their all for the cause.  This sort of player will demand a longer-term contract, might be on the treatment table for extended periods  and will be very difficult to shift when money is tight.

When you go down, you may lose any decent players you recruited and are stuck with the mid-thirty-year-olds on relatively high wages for the 2nd tier.  Are the parachute payments going to cover the money you have shelled out on the decent players and the wages you are still paying for the old-timers?

There is also the gamble that you splurge all your funds and loan more besides to replenish the entire squad.  This worked for Nottingham Forest but that club is possibly the exception that proves the rule.  You could easily plunge into the 3rd or 4th tiers if the gamble fails.

Then there are the fans.  Attendances can be the most reliable form of income for a football club.  The advantage of playing 1st tier football is that you are playing more attractive clubs and might in turn attract new fans and season ticket holders.  But how loyal is this type of fan? How many more fans can your stadium accommodate?  If, as in all likelihood, you go down, is this type of fickle fan going to stick or flit off to another club?  Will the experience of being soundly beaten most games endear you to them? 

Loyalty is built-up over time and I would argue so is a club’s strength.  Using canny recruitment of young players, some sold on at a profit and playing attractive football that gets the club near the promotion places for several years might be a better route to growing the fan-base and extended membership of the EPL.

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General Football & Sports / The Beautiful Game - or is it?

« on: January 09, 2025, 05:35:23 PM »

Picture this: two sets of players line up crowded inside a very small space.  A ball is injected between them.  There is mauling, grappling, wrestling to the ground, pulling of jerseys (hair too occasionally) and blocking.  A player is specially trained to receive the ball but the opponents try to smother him from moving.

Am I describing Rugby Football, American Football or Association Football aka Soccer?
Pundits, agents and other parties with a financial interest tell us that it’s the Beautiful Game.   But the shenanigans that take place on corners, long throw-ins and free kicks does not to me look beautiful at all. 

Is our football a game to be won by a side, for instance like Arsenal over Spurs, where there is a planned choreography to prevent Vicario coming and challenging for the ball?  If we want to watch a game tailored so that the team fielding the biggest, tallest, brawniest set of players will most likely prevail then we could go and watch Rugby.

We could go right back to football’s origins (all codes) where the game is played with an indeterminate number of players and no rules - the ball can progress by any means. Perhaps an artificial stream could be put along the centre line.  Alternatively, we can progress the game to accentuate the skills and movement that most of us allege we value.   

The decision may be taken out of our hands as the evidence that repeatedly heading the ball game after game, training session after training session is having a permanently deleterious effect on the brains of the players is becoming a) incontrovertible and b) no longer possible to ignore - especially for those under 23 years of age.  Getting the ball under control with the chest will be the only way to control a high pass.

The question is what would we replace corners with?  Perhaps something like a short corner in field hockey where the sides are separated: attackers on the edge of the area (which might become a semi-circle) and a limited number of defenders allowed on the goal line (2) and the by-line (4) – others on the centre line .  The ball is kicked in from a point on the by-line half-way between the centre of the goal and the edge of the area.

Why when a free kick is given do we have this boringly long pause to allow defenders to line up against attackers and the tiresome marking out of lines of separation.  It causes more grappling etc.  As long as it’s stationary and positioned where the foul was committed, just take the damn thing.  Defenders must get 5 metres clear or the free-kick advances 5 metres and repeat.  If the defence has not assembled itself and combed its hair whatever - too bad.

Change will come.  What form would you like it to be?

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West Bromwich Albion FC / This season's worst panic buy trophy

« on: December 03, 2020, 12:16:16 PM »

It's that time again for Baggies supporters to ruminate upon the winner of the season's worst panic buy.  With our current scouting and management system, every year there is keen competition for the title but I think this year the trophy goes uncontested to Ivanovitch.

So we lost Hegazi and in his place came Ivanovitch who is older and slo-o-ower.   His passing is tired and sloppy and often places us straight into danger.  He often trails an opposition forward even when given a reasonable head start.

It has been argued that he is in the team to use his experience to marshal the defence but the Sheffield Utd game demonstrated how unorganised and leaky a defence can be. 

Yet another case of our leadership choosing an aging player looking to boost their pension.  Interested to hear your views
 

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Zonal Marking

« on: January 12, 2020, 12:39:24 PM »

Is there some benefit in zonal marking?
Possible advantages are:
1) if defenders take up strategic positions in the six yard box it prevents attackers moving into said dangerous areas to score. 
2) if you have man to man marking and the attacker has more heft he can barge his man out of the way.  Also the recent tactic of clustering or lining up makes it difficult to man mark as the attackers peel off in different directions.
3) No one seems to argue with positioning defenders on one or both posts which is a form of zonal marking.

However: the difficulty of defending with either system is that attacking moving forward onto a good cross can gain more height and impetus than a static defender.  At least with man to man marking the defender can challenge and legally obstruct in some way?

Which system more restricts the keeper coming off his line?   

There seems to have been a culture of static keepers at the Albion.  I seem to recall Dean Kiely and Scott Carson being shy of coming out for the ball.  With all the blocking and obstruction that goes on, it takes a confident and brave keeper to desert his line.

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Announcements, Feedback & Questions / Change of moniker

« on: February 20, 2018, 06:11:39 PM »

Is it possible to change my name?   NJS seems  it bit dry.