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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Carlos Corberan

« on: April 14, 2024, 03:08:43 PM »

I go back a long way including the Golden age of Tony Butler's BRMB Radio phone ins and maybe that was the beginning of the hyperbole surrounding the local clubs. Everything is either the best ever or the worst ever because frankly the truth of neither being the case doesn't do much for ratings or nowadays clicks.

It is hard to imagine these days but some of the club managers used to go on the BRMB and field calls from fans. On one memorable occasion a manager sat through a 30 second rant from a caller telling the manager he was clueless and the main reason being his refusal to play a particular player. The manager responded "I'd love to play him he's a smashing player but he broke his leg two weeks ago..."

We have a terrible manager and terrible players I really feel sorry for fans of the 19 clubs that are behind us in the table what their lives must be like is hard to imagine.

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Forthcoming Match Forum - 04/05 Preston North End (H) / Re: Ticket Info & Requests

« on: April 12, 2024, 05:07:30 PM »

If you want to get tickets for this I would strongly recommend getting them sooner rather than latter particularly if you want two or more seats together. I was just on the site Smethwick is sold out as is much of the Halfords. A lot of the rest are down single seats already.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 11, 2024, 10:01:23 PM »

On the face of it the results don't look too bad however the actions that were taken to keep the lights on were increasingly desperate.

 The O'Shea transfer is an absolute bin fire although I would stress one that was wholly down to our desperate circumstances.

Generally reported at £8m at the time although not confirmed by either club. It appears in the accounts as £6.54m and given no other significant sales last summer before the June 30th that is the fee. Although elsewhere in the accounts it is noted that player sales trigger repayments of the MSD loan and we repaid £0.6m to them during the period which would obviously reduce the profit shown in the P&L.

Nor did we take a reduced fee for more cash up front because we took out an additional loan secured against the future instalments of £4m at an interest rate of 8% over 2 years. That is roughly another £0.32m of interest payments.

If there was no other indication of how desperate our situation was prior to the takeover then that was it.

In terms of FFP result the fact the Wisdom Smart loan is shown in the 2023 accounts (even though it was paid in 2024) coupled with the " allowable" expenses gives us a break even result. The report was at great pains to point out that the future funding arrangements and the loan repayment were discussed with the EFL so one assumes they are comfortable with this position.

Finally Patel has put in an additional £2.5m in funding which when added to the loan repayment takes the cash injection since February to in excess of £7m. On the one hand the good news is we have an owner prepared to fund the club. However the fact that £7m has been spent just on shoring up our current trading position shows just how difficult our financial position remains. 

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Callum Marshall Joins Albion on loan

« on: April 10, 2024, 01:16:39 PM »

We were really short up front so as an extra body why not? However across very limited minutes he looked out of his depth at this level. That is not to say he won't have a future in the game but right now not at the Championship level. I bear him no ill will it was a loan signing that didn't work many don't.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Play off Points Target

« on: April 09, 2024, 11:01:28 PM »

Given that Norwich play Preston and Hull play both Coventry and 'Boro. I am 99% confident that 78 points will be enough just because it is really difficult to see two teams getting maximum points and in the case of Hull and Preston making up significant deficits in goal difference. Right now I would be shocked if 76 isn't enough for 6th place.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: System / Tactics / Personnel

« on: April 07, 2024, 11:30:42 AM »

I think the limitations and age profile of the squad are catching up with us. To be honest I thought we were looking leggy going into the international break and worryingly if anything we look worse since. I think the pressure of being the front runner in the play-off race is beginning to tell as much as physical wear and tear.

While having Phillips and Maja back is a boost but given the time they have been out we can't expect too much and they don't give us the fresh legs in the Centre Midfield which is where we seem to be struggling in particular.

I am not sure there is much that Corberan can do about it. He can rotate his options but M'Vila and Chalobah don't fill me with a great deal of confidence in games which are starting to become must wins.

In terms pressure if we can get over the line into the play-offs we become the underdogs in that race the pressure is on our opponents and we have nothing much to lose which I would hope lifts us.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 06, 2024, 12:26:15 AM »

Come now, transfermakt, believe - this is conjecture and making figures match your views. Almost like conspiracy theories on X

No actually I am setting out how the profit and loss on player trading is calculated. Other than the number that is posted in the accounts there is no public domain numbers available on individual deals so I can't reconcile back to the number that appears in the clubs accounts. I used the numbers from transfermakt as a worked example.

The auditors will have access to deal level information they signed it off. As I have said earlier if someone has knowledge of an off the books transaction they need to put that information in front of the relevant authorities, if they don't then that is just so much hot air.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 05, 2024, 09:39:20 PM »

To calculate the profit on a sale the following equation is applied.

Fee-Book Value = Profit

Book Value is calculated as follows Fee Paid - Amortization (Fee Paid/contract term)x expired term of the contract.

Plugging in the numbers for the Pereira deal as per transfermarkt

I believe Pereira was on a four deal when he signed so it had run down to 3 at the point he was sold

He was bought for £8.25m and was 1 year into  a 4 year deal which gives a book value of £6.187m.

He was sold for £18m therefore the profit was £18m - £6.187m = £11.82m

If you add in £2m from the sale of Harper and Field (if we don't pay fee any fees received are 100% profit) plus the bulk of the Hegazy fee as I don't think he had much if anything left on his contract when we sold him. Then we aren't far short of £16.9m.   

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 05, 2024, 02:42:25 PM »

As much as I do not trust Lai this seems over the top and smacks of jumping to conclusions. The accounts to June 2022 recorded an overall £16.9m profit from transfer sales but also showed that the club was owed an additional £8.5m for player sales within the following 12 months. Most of that must have been the Pereira sale as well. As is standard practise Al-Hilal are likely to be paying the transfer fee over several seasons. It quite plausible that Pereira was sold for £30m and that the accounts to end of June 2023 record a further large sum due payable, e.g. with the fee structured over three years overall, amounting to a total of £30m.

Profits and losses on player trading are shown in the year that they are realised, regardless of when the money is paid. The £8m in regard to transfer fees owed on the balance sheet will include whatever is outstanding on the Pereira fee.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 04, 2024, 04:42:32 PM »

I think you underestimate the duplicity of the Chinese / Saudis / Brazilians and over estimate their respect for UK financial reporting law.

I absolutely do not. However to syphon off £10m from a deal then the UK based officers e.g. Dowling himself and the FD have to facilitate it. They have to cooperate or at the very least turn a blind eye. Now the main parties involved might have very little to fear from UK law or the football authorities but those individuals do.

Like I say if Dowling has proof of anything to the contrary then he needs to go to the authorities. I would add while there are monies outstanding to Lai on the sale that offers a route to recover funds that have been stolen from the club, so sooner rather than latter would be good.

Otherwise it is BS.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 04, 2024, 03:39:22 PM »

I am calling out Dowling's BS. Pereira was not sold for £30m. What is in the report and accounts for the relevant year is a profit on player sales of £16.9m. The vast bulk of that is the Pereira fee. That number would be north of £20m had we sold him for £30m bearing mind we would need to deduct roughly 75% of whatever we paid for him to get the profit number.

The lesser figure is what the club received. This is the amount was on the deal sheet and it would have been reconciled with the amounts that were paid into the clubs accounts. This has been audited and that would have been demonstrated to the auditors satisfaction.

If Dowling has evidence to the contrary then he needs to take it to the relevant authorities and this would potentially be a criminal matter. Otherwise he needs to shut up.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 03, 2024, 05:49:40 PM »

What I don't understand is that the link I posted, for West Bromwich Albion Heritage Limited has accounts declared, but they don't say much, other than they've not included profit and loss balance sheets due to "small companies" rules that they've followed.

But I've never heard of WBA Heritage Limited - I thought it was either Group or Holdings that we cared about?

Not sure of Heritage entity's background (a Peace era spin-off??) but it isn't the trading company and is covered by the small company rules which pretty much exempts it from anything meaningful in the public record.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Play off Points Target

« on: April 03, 2024, 04:52:35 PM »

I think 75 points will be enough to lock up 6th. We should be able to get at least that and with luck have that before we go into the last 3 games. It is absolutely in our hands.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA FC Financial report 22/23 published

« on: April 03, 2024, 04:41:16 PM »

The headline losses are at the bottom end of the range that I was anticipating. However with these matters the devil is in the detail and that won't be available until they posted on the Companies House website. Obviously the O'Shea fee landing in this set of accounts takes a lot of the sting out of the headline losses but that just makes this years figures a lot worse.

In terms of FFP our total losses can be up to £13m per season if there is owner funding. In the absence of owner funding that number is reduced to £5m. As our then owner didn't cover the loss the allowance is £5m for that season. However there significant costs that can be discounted for FFP purposes.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Next 6 Games.

« on: March 31, 2024, 12:06:24 PM »

We don't get to choose if and when we get promoted. Whatever the circumstances we just to need to make the best of it as a club in terms of taking the money using it wisely but largely with an on eye on the future. There are no absolute givens the team that most of us thought would crash and burn this year was Luton but they are the only promoted team making a fist of things although without the FFP points deductions the relegation race would be largely over by now.

Whenever we do get promoted the players we are promoted with are going to form part of the squad for the following season that is almost inevitable. We aren't going to "do a Forest" it hasn't done them a whole lot of good and that badly thought through trolley dash is going to hurt them for years to come particularly if they are relegated.

Be in no doubt that first season back will be an epic struggle no matter when it happens.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: New Kit for next season

« on: March 20, 2024, 04:50:13 PM »

Macron produce Bologna's kit. Hence the potential link.It basically who will give the club the best deal. If Macron are looking to break into English market maybe they will pay the club a little more than some of the more established brands like Puma etc...

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Play off Points Target

« on: March 17, 2024, 10:13:53 AM »

Earlier typo corrected. It also should be noted that Coventry's fixture with Ipswich will be moved to mid week before the final Sunday because they are in the cup semi's. That is potentially a huge fixture with an impact on both automatic promotion and play-offs.

I would also note that the FA cup final is scheduled for the day before the play-off final. So should Coventry make it to the FA Cup final and the play-offs  something would have to give there.

I would also add that for any of the chance for the points total required to be greater than 76 at least one of the chasing teams need to run at 2 or above points per game. Across the last 6 games Norwich and ourselves are the pack isn't.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Play off Points Target

« on: March 17, 2024, 04:33:09 AM »

There are 5 teams chasing 2 places with the following  fixtures


WBA Millwall (A) Watford (H) Stoke (A)Rotherham (H) Sunderland (H) Leicester (A) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Preston   (H)

Norwich Plymouth (H) Leicester (A) Ipswich (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Preston (A) Bristol City (H) Swansea (H) Birmingham (A)

HullStoke (H) Leeds (A) Cardiff (A) Middlesbrough(H) Queens Park Rangers (H) Watford (A) Coventry (A) Ipswich (H)  Plymouth (A)

Coventry Huddersfield (A) Cardiff( H) Leeds (H) Southampton (A) Birmingham (A) Ipswich (H) Hull (H) Blackburn (A) Queens Park Rangers (H)

Preston Rotherham (H)Birmingham (A) Watford (A) Huddersfield(H) Norwich (H) Southampton (A) Queens Park Rangers (A) Leicester (H) West Bromwich Albion (A)

Looking at the fixtures it seems unlikely that two teams will run at two points a game across their remaining fixtures because they are either playing each other or teams that have plenty to play for at either end of the table. I think 78 will get us 6th almost 100% of the time and 75 points will get us there most of the time.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Mikey Johnston joins on loan (Official!)

« on: March 16, 2024, 10:53:51 AM »

The Celtic fan I spoke to about MJ (legendary initials and shirt number) was actually very vicious with his hatred towards him.

I couldn't believe it.

It was nearly akin to my dislike of Reach.

I don't know how vicious they are on the Celtic forums about him, but that shocked me.

He went onto imply he was only doing well because of the level we play at, and I didn't want to remind him about the level they play at, as him and mate were bigger than me.

I would also add that their man Brendan isn't all that he is cracked up to be and that he is at Celtic to rebuild his reputation having crashed and burned twice in England.

Although like you said discretion might have been the better part of valour in this particular instance.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA NEW OWNERS - Bilkul football

« on: March 16, 2024, 09:55:03 AM »

We are losing about £2m a month so £5m plus the interest is a drop in the ocean. However it will help with our FFP position because it was impaired in our earlier accounts it will show up as an extraordinary item in this years accounts (23/24).

The repayment marks an end of an era. The loan was probably the final straw for most fans with regard to the Lai ownership it has finally been repaid and we can start to move on.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Mikey Johnston joins on loan (Official!)

« on: March 15, 2024, 11:24:03 PM »

I am well aware of the fans opinion of the player. However even at this stage the player could still be trying to get back into the Celtic fold but Johnston isn't even pretending that's a possibility bridges have been burnt here.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Mikey Johnston joins on loan (Official!)

« on: March 15, 2024, 04:26:42 PM »

Interesting quote from the player

"It just feels like I needed a run of games to play in my position and have some trust from my team mates and the manager. I've had that while I've been here and that's what has helped me kick on"

That sounds like a player that is done with Celtic and I think if we could put something together we might have a shot of signing him. Although I suspect there will be wealthier clubs interested in him and I know Fulham have scouted him while he has been here.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: WBA NEW OWNERS - Bilkul football

« on: March 15, 2024, 04:09:18 PM »

I think one of the most telling comments from the WM interview was that he had learnt a lot on Joey Saputo's dime, a reference to his involvement with the consortium that bought Bologna and has run the club with some success for a decade.

There are parallels between the two clubs. Bologna are not one of the giants of Italian football but have a long history and should probably be a solid Serie A club, which they were for much of the post-war period. However they hit hard times in the 1980's even dropping into Serie C for a season before eventually regaining top flight status in 1987. Since they yo-yoed between Serie A & B and again C (that is a lot worse than being in League 1 in terms of relative standard of the leagues).

The takeover happened on their final relegation in 2014 and they were promoted that same season and have remained in Serie A since. Most seasons they have finished in the bottom half of the league but comfortably outside the relegation zone. Last year they finished 9th and currently sit 4th.

Bologna are a club on an upward trajectory. What might Patel have gleaned from his involvement?

Football clubs lose money and bucket loads of it. At the operating level Bologna like most Serie A clubs lose money and profit from player sales closes the gap somewhat but are ultimately dependent on owner finance for their continued well being.
 
Continuity is a surprising theme given the level of churn behind the scenes at most Italian clubs. In the decade since the takeover Bologna have had just 4 managers although this did include Saputo’s Rooney moment when he appointed Filippo Inzaghi (great player less good coach) to an ill fated and short spell in charge.

The role of Sporting Director has had just two incumbents Riccardo Bigon and Marco Di Vaio. The latter was promoted from within and was an ex-player. He had also played for Saputo’s MLS club Montreal.

Recruitment matters. I have often thought that Italian clubs exist largely to trade players in a bewildering merry go round and actually playing games of football is just a distraction. 

Bologna are no exception in terms of activity this year; they have been involved in over 60 transactions in and out of the club, with a net spend of over 30m Euro.

Digging into the details a little there are a few themes. They only spend significant fees on younger players and their current squad is one of the youngest in a league where prominent players often play well into their 30’s. Their recruitment is global from Argentina to Scotland. Many of their players are earning wages that are comparable to those paid in the Championship Jed Wallace for instance would be one of their better paid players.

If our new owner was to use Bologna as a template for running the club we could do a lot worse.

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Next 6 Games.

« on: March 11, 2024, 06:09:40 PM »

I always thought that if we were still in the play-offs by the international break we would be finish in the play-offs. Following the weekends results we will finish in 5th place with a minimum of 2 point gap between ourselves and 7th.

With 9 games left the chasing pack is down to Norwich, Hull and Coventry. I think Preston, Cardiff and even Middlesbrough have a slim chance of making the play-offs but they are going to finish 6th at best so they more of threat to Norwich.

The play-off's are a lottery a unique series of games and it doesn't really matter who we have to play

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West Bromwich Albion FC / Re: Okay Yokuslu

« on: March 08, 2024, 04:13:51 PM »

The Championship is relentless and I would guess most of our regular starters are carrying some form of niggle and Yokuslu will be no exception. At 30 he is post peak as are a lot of the players around him, if our schedule was a game a week I guess there would be less need to manage his minutes. The choice for Corberan is two 70's or push for two 90's and risk muscle damage and no Yokuslu for weeks.