While I am as delighted as anyone about the termination of the Lai years in the wilderness I really cannot share the blind faith in our new owners.
Patel is fundamentally a business man, he has bought our club to make a profit. OK, he might have some fun along the way, but he will take his profit when he can. The MSD loans remain, and he has made it crystal clear that it is up to the club to repay them: his input here has been to extend the loan period. He did not say that the interest rates have been reduced, so very likely they haven't.
Until the end of June we cannot reduce our wage bill, so will continue to consume the MSD loans and I suspect there will be very little left in the kitty by then.
After June we can release Mowatt, Kipre, Chalobah, Reach, Phillips, Pieters, Kelly, Bartley and the loanees - with the option of negotiating new, much cheaper, contracts with any we wish to retain. This will substantially reduce our wage bill, but Diangana, Swift, Wallace, Yukuslu, Dike (unless he does the sensible thing and retires) and Grant will still be on excessively high wages, and the other regulars like Furlong and Ajayi will be on higher wages than they merit in the Championship. Ane we still owe money on Grant. So, unless we are promoted, I cannot see us doing much better than breaking even, and we will certainly not be able to pay off much of the £50 million (?) plus interest debt to MSD. Even in 25-26 we will still have Dike, Wallace and Grant on the payroll.
Realistically what are our chances of promotion to the Premier? The bookies are quoting 7-1, and they are builing a profit margin into that so I think the odds are really 10-1. Even if we do go up we will almost certainly only have one season there plus two seasons parachute money. If we are given this opportunity it is vital that we use the premiership money to clear our debts and restrict our spending on new players to £20 to £30 million and young players with potential who fit the Corbean model. And don't waste money on loanees, we need to develop our own players. Unfortunate3ly we have a chocolate fireguard style recruitment department, so don't hold your breath.
If we don't get promoted there will be little or no money available for new players we will have to rely on the academy, and any rough diamands the revamped (please) recruitment team can unearth. We could increase season tickets by say £100 and attendance fees, but hat will only raise about £2 million, so that won't help much. We are pretty dismal at attracting lucrative sponsers, this is unlikely to improve in the short term. Money from Patel within FFP limits? Maybe, but more likely maybe not. We will have to get a lot smarter to prevent talent leaching from the Acadamy to Villa Park and beyond, keeping it low key until they reach 17. We have very little saleable talent to raise funds, and what there is is unlikely to attract the attention of the premiership, and no EFL club will be in aposition to splash much cash.
I expect to see us finish in the bottom half of the table next season, with absolutely no guarantees we will be playoffs or better inn the following season(s). The teams with parachute money will always have a huge advantage - and there will always be anything between 3 and 9 of them.....
I really thinki that we still have 3-4 lean years ahead of us, before we can clear this monstrous debt, and build a team able to get promoted. Patel can certainly help by ensuring we have right management team in place to ensure the club is run efficiently and maximises its potential.
So, onwards and upwards, but unfortunately not as fast as most of you seem to think
