Apparantly, we've pulled out of the race for Gibbs having bid £10m against Arsenals demands of £12m. Not sure if this is factual or not but it got me thinking about how a club sets their bid. This isn't a debate about whether the whole football world has gone mad and whether Gibbs is "worth" 12 times more than Laurie Cunningham was!
When buying most things there are comparables. If you're looking at a house there's probably another one in the same street that was sold recently and you can gauge the price. Is it the same with players? Do the clubs look at the prices paid for similar players in the same position (adjusted for injury records, contracts lengths etc) and arrive on a figure?
Ultimately, the price of anything comes down to supply and demand. By definition there is only one Gibbs but there are several good left backs. How much demand is there in any one transfer window for such a player? Probably not much. For the elite clubs, Gibbs is below them and they have no interest. For Championship clubs and abroad, £12m is out of sight. That leaves perhaps 14 Premiership clubs who might bid for him. Half of those clubs are probably happy with their left back. Many others would have identified other areas they want to strengthen ahead of left back. It's quite possibly 3-4 potential bidders for 3-4 quality left backs similar to Gibbs. Therefore, in such a small market, how can Albion be so sure that £10m is the walk-away price and Arsenal so sure that £12m is the minimum?
Perhaps it's driven by budgets rather than actual valuation criteria? Maybe Albion said "we need a CH, DM,AM, ST and LB, we've got X amount to spend and are happy to allocate 20% of our budget to a LB". A bit like when we go shopping and allocate X amount to something and no more as an overspend would mean we don't have enough left for the mortgage or council tax? Maybe it's driven by Arsenal's budget? If they only get £10m for Gibbs they won't be able to afford the winger they're after?
Not sure if anyone ITK at the club has any insight on this. I'd love to know how much art and science there is behind it. Is it the result of proper comparative analysis using a bespoke software package that values players precisely or is it just TP, JW et al in a room saying "whatcha think Tone? £10 mil? £12 mil?"