[TheBaggieMan]

Even if we did win the playoffs which would be brilliant, the gulf in class between the Championship and the Premier League is huge and likely we would be thrashed every week.

One only has to look at last year’s promotion teams to see the evidence as each one face relegation. Occasionally, you get an exception such as Brentford or Forest but they built a good squad and survived the drop but only just for the time being.

[ex coseley kid]

Even if we did win the playoffs which would be brilliant, the gulf in class between the Championship and the Premier League is huge and likely we would be thrashed every week.

One only has to look at last year’s promotion teams to see the evidence as each one face relegation. Occasionally, you get an exception such as Brentford or Forest but they built a good squad and survived the drop but only just for the time being.

Not wanting to get ahead of anything... but the jury is out for me right now because we just don't know what Shilen Patel's Albion is going to be.... in either division. I'd rather see us in the Premiership to help the funding, disappointing football or not.

[KnaveofAlbion]

I'd rather see us in the Premiership to help the funding, disappointing football or not.

Totally agree. IF we went up my only realistic ambition would be to not be one of the Prem era historically poor clubs, like Sheff Utd have been this year. Get results against Wolves and Villa, maybe another insane 5-2 or whatever vs Chelsea and bank the cash for the medium term future.

This coming summer, regardless of league, I’d love the club to look for 3 or 4 first team players and look to see if 1/2 of our youth can join Fellows as a first teamer.

[liverbaggie]

Of course it would be fab to get into the premier league but at worst we could at least pay of our debts and start again with younger players and then go again if relegated boing boing and all that

[overseas baggie]

Even if we did win the playoffs which would be brilliant, the gulf in class between the Championship and the Premier League is huge and likely we would be thrashed every week.

One only has to look at last year’s promotion teams to see the evidence as each one face relegation. Occasionally, you get an exception such as Brentford or Forest but they built a good squad and survived the drop but only just for the time being.

Luton have shown what’s possible on a small budget with a good manager and good recruitment

[Dan]

We would be massively up against it but at least a season in the premier would allow us to properly refresh the squad (at least if we recruited properly, which we rarely do...). Being able to spend say 50m to fix up the squad would at least leave us with a much better long term future than staying down where we have to deal with our massive wage bill with no budget.

In the unlikely situation we did actually win the play offs it'd have to be viewed like our first promotion under Megson: A no expectations season that needs to be used to set up the teams longer term future. Of course that was the case with our last season there also and we wasted it completely.

If as expected we stay down then next season can only be viewed as a consolidation season, lots of patience would have to be given the amount of out of contract players and the squad age. Recruitment even under a good recruitment team will be very difficult, yet alone under Pearce.

[NJS]

Luton have shown what’s possible on a small budget with a good manager and good recruitment

Well we have the first but need to sort the second

[ttree30]

I watched Arsenal v Villa the other week straight after our game and it was like watching a different sport.

While players like Townsend take three or four touches and are still struggling to control the ball, the Premier League players had controlled, moved the ball on instantly, or were around 10 yards down the pitch.

It was all done with pace, control and movement. The gap is indeed enormous.

But we are what we are thanks to the utter mess made by downgrading every position in the team over the past seven or eight years. Corberan has done wonders to extract enough from this group to reach the top five.

And if we’re to have any hope of getting even close to the quality of our bottom 14 Premier League peers we will almost certainly need to be there and get the financial injection that  provides.

Albeit the Premier League has become a dull, money-making theatre show dominated by big franchises and the menace of VAR. Its about as much fun as having a lobotomy.

[KYA]

I watched Arsenal v Villa the other week straight after our game and it was like watching a different sport.

While players like Townsend take three or four touches and are still struggling to control the ball, the Premier League players had controlled, moved the ball on instantly, or were around 10 yards down the pitch.

It was all done with pace, control and movement. The gap is indeed enormous.

But we are what we are thanks to the utter mess made by downgrading every position in the team over the past seven or eight years. Corberan has done wonders to extract enough from this group to reach the top five.

And if we’re to have any hope of getting even close to the quality of our bottom 14 Premier League peers we will almost certainly need to be there and get the financial injection that  provides.

Albeit the Premier League has become a dull, money-making theatre show dominated by big franchises and the menace of VAR. Its about as much fun as having a lobotomy.

You have to wonder what fans want the Championship is less skillful but more competitive than the Premier but even if you get thrashed every week a club needs the Premier League money to compete at championship level or do they?
Ipswich made it and  other clubs before them who are still in the Premier for a club like Albion we need to improve the structure of the club recruitment the academy far better to spend money improving these departments than blow £15Million on a player who could be a flop.

[ttree30]

You have to wonder what fans want the Championship is less skillful but more competitive than the Premier but even if you get thrashed every week a club needs the Premier League money to compete at championship level or do they?
Ipswich made it and  other clubs before them who are still in the Premier for a club like Albion we need to improve the structure of the club recruitment the academy far better to spend money improving these departments than blow £15Million on a player who could be a flop.

I agree KYA so long as we don’t get those players nicked from us by the predators above before we’ve realised any value from them.

And I agree as well about not knowing what we want, because the PL is not fundamentally based on having the best coaches or recruitment. We can never win it, or even compete at the top end of it, and that’s equally true for more than half the clubs in it. If we get back there it will mostly be a miserable survival struggle.

So why bother, other than for cold, financial reasons that have nothing to do with why we love our clubs? And that’s a big problem for the game, which the FA has helped to create and does absolutely nothing to address.

We are long overdue a proper regulator in the wider interests of the sport - the FA is too compromised by its involvement in the creation of the PL in the first place and has now found itself overpowered by the big franchises it helped to unleash at the top. They are incapable of regulating in the wider interests of the game.

And that is why the game is where it is, and why clubs like Albion have no real chance of winning anything anymore. And even smaller clubs have no dreams.

[KN22]

I disagree that the premier league is dull. Even the likes of Forest, Bournemouth and Dingles have been involved in some very watchable games lately. It’s a scary landscape for a club like ours, that I do agree with. I am not sure we have any premier league standard players in the current squad.

[ttree30]

I disagree that the premier league is dull. Even the likes of Forest, Bournemouth and Dingles have been involved in some very watchable games lately. It’s a scary landscape for a club like ours, that I do agree with. I am not sure we have any premier league standard players in ten current squad.

The dullness lies for me in the lack of competition and unpredictability. League position is largely determined by resources.

I admire the incredible skill of the players at Manchester City, but I admire it more in the way I enjoy a skilled theatrical performance. They are brilliant at what they do, but it all resembles the Harlem Globetrotters for me.

Exhibition, not competition. Theatre, not sport.

Anyway on one thing we are surely all agreed - our squad is a very long way from being able to compete successfully with the bottom 14, let alone the big franchises at the top.

[NJS]

I disagree that the premier league is dull. Even the likes of Forest, Bournemouth and Dingles have been involved in some very watchable games lately. It’s a scary landscape for a club like ours, that I do agree with. I am not sure we have any premier league standard players in ten current squad.

Funny how the sides you mention have been at the wrong end of some egregious ref + VAY howlers.  Could it be that  officials are under pressure from the EPL to engineer cliff-hanger finishes between the top 6?

[KN22]

Funny how the sides you mention have been at the wrong end of some egregious ref + VAY howlers.  Could it be that  officials are under pressure from the EPL to engineer cliff-hanger finishes between the top 6?

I don’t think so personally.

[overseas baggie]

I agree KYA so long as we don’t get those players nicked from us by the predators above before we’ve realised any value from them.

And I agree as well about not knowing what we want, because the PL is not fundamentally based on having the best coaches or recruitment. We can never win it, or even compete at the top end of it, and that’s equally true for more than half the clubs in it. If we get back there it will mostly be a miserable survival struggle.

So why bother, other than for cold, financial reasons that have nothing to do with why we love our clubs? And that’s a big problem for the game, which the FA has helped to create and does absolutely nothing to address.

We are long overdue a proper regulator in the wider interests of the sport - the FA is too compromised by its involvement in the creation of the PL in the first place and has now found itself overpowered by the big franchises it helped to unleash at the top. They are incapable of regulating in the wider interests of the game.

And that is why the game is where it is, and why clubs like Albion have no real chance of winning anything anymore. And even smaller clubs have no dreams.

Spot on.  Very well summarised

[MarkW]

Controversial opinion time! Also apologies it's so long!

I don't think a striker is a priority. We have two or four strikers on our books next season (depending on how you categorise BTA and Grant) and while you might rightly criticise BTA especially with not being clinical enough, I don't think that is a key concern.

Why?

Because as a team we don't create enough good quality chances.

This year we scored 67 goals, enough to rank 9th in the league. According to Opta, we scored 14 set pieces goals, which was joint 6th best, four penalties (joint 5th) meaning we scored only 49 open play goals, which is actually 12th in the league.

But Mark, I hear you cry, having a better striker would mean we finish more chances, so we score more open play goals! This is definitely true - having clinical players means you convert more of your chances into goals.

But as a team, we have the joint highest goals per shot, and outright highest goals per shot on target. So in general as a team, we are actually very clinical. BTA does have a lower goals per shot than other members of the squad - he's tied in 7th alongside Wallace, Swift and Bartley. Unsurprisingly Johnston and Fellows are 2nd and 3rd - their introduction into the team since January has seen them contribute 11 goals from 40 shots. Calls for Weimann to be on the bench could be warranted - he has 2 goals from 10 shots.

So why am I saying it's not a striker issue if BTA isn't as clinical as other members of the team, or other strikers in the league?

Because as a team, we just don't create enough quality chances. If you like xG, then being 11th in the xG table should give you some context. If you don't like xG, then we were 19th in shots this season. We took over 100 fewer shots than the clubs who finished above us in the league. I'm not generally a fan of taking pot-shots - the stats tend to suggest it's not a good strategy for success - but there is a definite problem with chance creation.

Another good way of looking at this is by looking at some case studies of other teams. Blackburn had the league's top goalscorers in Sammie Szmodics, who outscored his xG by a good margin to score 27 goals (xG of 22.3, 144 shots). Their next highest goalscorers got 5 a-piece from 34 and 25 shots. League winners Leicester had three players score above ten goals:

Vardy - 18 goals (4 pens), xG 17.1, 53 shots
Mavididi - 12 goals (2 pens), xG 9.1, 88 shots
Dewsbury-Hall - 12 goals (1 pen, 6 free kicks), xG 10.2, 87 shots

BTA - 11 goals (1 pen), xG 12.7, 73 shots
Swift - 9 goals (3 pens), xG 5.8, 43 shots
Diangana - 7 goals, xG 5.4, 42 shots
Johnston - 7 goals, xG 3.0, 23 shots

You can see that in general our players just didn't have the same number of shooting opportunities, and so it's no surprise we haven't scored as many. It also shows that Vardy is still a very clinical striker.

Of course being able to finish more of the few chances we create would help, but clinical goalscorers are a rare and usually expensive commodity, so if there is a tactical change to facilitate that, then it would certainly be much cheaper. Equally, other areas of the pitch are usually cheaper than strikers.

So where would I prioritise? Central midfield looks very light - only Molumby and Yokuslu are under contract next season, and neither can fill the role Mowatt has played. If Kipré leaves then his passing will definitely be missed, and I think we can all agree that left back should be an area of focus. Although it might be counter-intuitive, I would be looking at stabilising the defence first.

Remember when I said we scored 14 set pieces goals? We also conceded 15, which is joint 2nd worst! But the flip side is we conceded the 2nd lowest for open play goals (29), so we've been a really good defensive outfit when the ball is in play, but actually very vulnerable from dead balls. Given how few goals we conceded from open play, if we could tighten up the set pieces, our defence would be nigh on impenetrable.

It's hard to know if our lack of creativity is a tactical choice from Corberan - prioritising defensive stability over allowing players freedom -  or whether it's a personnel issue, with players either unable to spot passes or perhaps taking too many touches and not getting a shot off. I feel like Corberan likes us to play with very rehearsed set patterns of play - lots of third man runs and cut backs into the box. Is it a tempo issue? I do think we can be too ponderous at times, even allowing for us to try and bait a press and attack the space in behind. Ultimately, it's a systemic issue and not an issue that can be fixed with the acquisition of one single player.

Tl;Dr - our goalscoring problems aren't just down to BTA not being clinical enough, as a team we don't create enough chances, and I am unsure if a new striker will fix that.

[KN22]

An extremely well thought out and well written post Mark. It does make you think, that's for sure and I am certain that was your intention. Despite that however, I cannot excuse some of the recent misses by BTA and we need to be more clinical somehow, starting on Sunday.

[Dan]

You would also have to account for the fact that better strikers will get more chances in general. It's not just about expected goals, the best strikers get in better positions, make better runs, and create chances for themselves. Thomas-Asante doesn't have that high an expects goals but he also doesn't show that much in the way of top striker instincts either to increase that number.

With that said, I would agree its not really a priority given our limited resources. Realistically we will be limited to frees and loans, and assuming Maja actually gets up to fitness we'd probably better off backing him, and having BTA as a handy rotational alternative rather than diving into the striker market again. Perhaps Faal did enough on loan to warrant being looked at over pre-season for the 3rd striker spot, could maybe have a Fellows kind of role next season.

[ttree30]

I really enjoyed reading that Mark. Thank you.

You are absolutely right about the cost of a “proven” goalscorer - every club wants one, and unless you unearth a gem the proven ones are likely to be way beyond our price range. And probably wouldn’t be joining us anyway.

I wonder if we would benefit from a different type of striker - someone who can be a focal point and hold the ball. We don’t have that, and I think the last was probably Rondon.

That would offer us more options when we gain possession.

My main feeling is that we lack pace when we win the ball. Johnston and Fellows have helped to some extent with that, but the best teams score so frequently when they win possession because the opposition is out of position. Leicester basically won the Premier League doing exactly that, but you need players who have the skill and technique to deliver and control accurately at pace - not just to run fast.

I strongly agree with you that nearly every successful team builds from a firm defensive base, and we also need to think laterally about how the side can be re-engineered to be successful as a unit without dreaming of a £50m striker.

Corberan has done wonders with what he has and I hope he gets sufficient resource to reshape the side. It’s not necessarily about a “finisher” (albeit that would be great) but the overall mix - and I’ve no doubt he will have to box clever to improve the team.

Fantastic post Mark. Lots to think about.

[hardtobeat]

Not to sure about this XG against number of shots v goals scored mullarkey . There are other things that have to be taken into account such as injuries , number of games played , if injured which teams didn’t they play against. For example you could almost combine Diangana and Swifts output as for the vast majority of time only one has played usually in place of the other !

[Albionfan1983]

I watched Arsenal v Villa the other week straight after our game and it was like watching a different sport.

While players like Townsend take three or four touches and are still struggling to control the ball, the Premier League players had controlled, moved the ball on instantly, or were around 10 yards down the pitch.

It was all done with pace, control and movement. The gap is indeed enormous.

But we are what we are thanks to the utter mess made by downgrading every position in the team over the past seven or eight years. Corberan has done wonders to extract enough from this group to reach the top five.

And if we’re to have any hope of getting even close to the quality of our bottom 14 Premier League peers we will almost certainly need to be there and get the financial injection that  provides.

Albeit the Premier League has become a dull, money-making theatre show dominated by big franchises and the menace of VAR. Its about as much fun as having a lobotomy.

Both teams are in the Top 4 remember

[TAFKATMNo1Fan]

Were Pippa and Weiman on the pitch at the end with the other players on Saturday?

[Standaman]

I don't think there would be a conversation around the strikers if we had a fit Dike, unless one or more was sold during the window. I agree with much of MarkW has posted above and would add that the priority has to be elsewhere. Personally I would use Faal as the 3rd rotation option certainly through the first half of the season.

Grant remains the working definition of surplus to requirements and another loan beckons I would imagine.

[NJS]

How many playing minutes will Dike last before he's crocked again?  I don't think that we should pin our hopes on him playing a big part in the next or any other season. 

[KN22]

I really think those saying Faal will step up are wrong. I don’t think he’s going to make the grade. This is not a knock at him and I hope I’m wrong. Time will tell of course.