I'd be very surprised if a sale goes ahead this summer. We need a buyer who is willing to give Peace £150m, and then invest in the club on-top. Given that he bought the club for a circa 4-6m (apparently using a loan which the club then paid back of the years) and has been paying himself a generous salary he is taking the micky. No chance of a Jack Hayward style giveaway I guess. He may be a fan but he's a business man first and fan second.
Why would anyone want to invest for £150-200m? Even with the new TV deal there is little money to be made as it's all going to go on the playing side and greed league wages. Alternatively if there is any money to be made then that's to the detriment of the club and the fans. Real tension here between the likely profit motives of any outside consortium and the future of the club.
I suspect that anyone investing £200m odd is either going to try to push the debt onto the club via dodgy loans (which would be a disaster for us and a disgrace. We are not Man Utd, we cannot afford a Glazer style debt dump being laid at our door) or is going to want to take money back from the future revenue - which wouldn't appear likely either unless an asset stripping process gets underway.
From a business perspective there appears to be no real incentive. We also need to be careful with getting carried out with the press stories of groups being shown around the facilities. There are lots of dodgy people around who claim to have access to large wealth but in fact are no more than con-artists. Just like what happened down the road with Birmingham.
Peace has done a professional and impressive job in many ways but if he sells to random consortium who then abuse what has been built up then he will be the one responsible.
To re-cap we need an investor who will:
-Invest at least £200m to invest in the club from day one and have access to more dough
-Have no interest in recouping that investment, or trying to make a profit
-Run the club for the long term interest (i.e. no debt, stability, back Pulis long term)
So essentially we need a Steve Gibson type billionaire - there is no chance of this working out.
Best case scenario we are probably stuck with Peace which would be no bad thing - just wish he'd show some ambition to expand the stadium and lower the match day ticket price (not season ticket prices).
It is important to distinguish between an investor and a benefactor. An investor gives money to a project in the hope and expectation of a return whereas a benefactor gives money out civic duty, ego or to curry political influence. Too often football fans confuse the two and assume that the former is always preferable to the latter.
A good investor (Peace Fenway or Lewis) is preferable to a bad benefactor (Alam, Tan or Jordan). A good investor understands what they are buying and nurtures it, yes the decision making is informed by the profit motive but as such they do not waste resources for show.
On the other hand the benefactor model is often lavish in it's expenditure but not in anyway shape or form rational and often club's are engulfed by crisis's entirely created by the benefactors ego and amateurish dabbling. A lot of the money is wasted and the net effect is probably negative.
It is probably worth noting that the Tan and Alam have poured millions into Cardiff and Hull who were in desperate financial straits without there intervention their supporters would be lucky to watching their teams in Division 2. That alone gives the owners a certain sense of entitlement to try out whatever crackpot schemes they dream up.
Peace is selling a strong club that can stand on it's own two feet without the need to find funds from anywhere to keep going. There is no need for the new owners to go to their pocket to bankroll the club if they wish to invest in projects that generate growth in the expectation of a return that is their choice. Hopefully a quality asset will attract a quality investor.
