Author Topic: What went wrong?  (Read 7819 times)

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timdon

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #150 on: January 02, 2021, 08:45:20 PM »
Can you point me to where I have said I’ve bugged the boardroom or go out with Dowling for a pint? Intrigued to know where I’ve said this?

As I’ve said before you don’t have to believe, you also don’t have too/not required to attack other members comments.
No-one is "attacking" your comments, or indeed calling you a liar, as you suggested previously. Just pointing out that there is a big difference between actual evidence to back up what you said, and it being just a bit of gossip that you heard from someone.

tommcneill

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #151 on: January 02, 2021, 09:00:42 PM »
No-one is "attacking" your comments, or indeed calling you a liar, as you suggested previously. Just pointing out that there is a big difference between actual evidence to back up what you said, and it being just a bit of gossip that you heard from someone.

Which I said was the case in my comment.

Since then I’ve been attacked for it. If someone says ‘you made that up’ what is their real thought?? That Im lying....it’s there for all to read mate.

You crack on with your views though and let everyone have theirs without the need to attack the comment
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timdon

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #152 on: January 02, 2021, 09:36:58 PM »
Which I said was the case in my comment.

Since then I’ve been attacked for it. If someone says ‘you made that up’ what is their real thought?? That Im lying....it’s there for all to read mate.

You crack on with your views though and let everyone have theirs without the need to attack the comment
I think some of the comments are just because there is no actual hard evidence to back up your original comment that Bilic was not going to sign a new contract. But you have to admit that you have changed your story a few times along the way. So first you said that your belief that this was true was only based on the opinions of people on this board who you trusted:

"It’s been said by those I trust on here who said Bilic wasn’t signing a new contract"

Your next post implied that your belief was based on an unspecified but "in the know" source who you trusted:


"No I haven’t it’s what I’ve heard.....and where I’ve heard it from I’m very confident it’s true."

And then in your next post you say that your belief comes from someone actually working within the club:

 "It’s based on things that have come out of the club from people."


tommcneill

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #153 on: January 02, 2021, 09:41:47 PM »
I think some of the comments are just because there is no actual hard evidence to back up your original comment that Bilic was not going to sign a new contract. But you have to admit that you have changed your story a few times along the way. So first you said that your belief that this was true was only based on the opinions of people on this board who you trusted:

"It’s been said by those I trust on here who said Bilic wasn’t signing a new contract"

Your next post implied that your belief was based on an unspecified but "in the know" source who you trusted:


"No I haven’t it’s what I’ve heard.....and where I’ve heard it from I’m very confident it’s true."

And then in your next post you say that your belief comes from someone actually working within the club:

 "It’s based on things that have come out of the club from people."

I’ve not said it come from anyone working at the club at all.

I’ve not changed my story at all.

I’ve been passed info, info that has been true everytime it’s been passed.

No I can’t provide evidence....so what?

I’ve passed on some information I heard from someone who has been spot on everytime that’s all.

And here you all go continuing to try and dig me out.

Not sure how you’ve managed to work all that out....but it’s incorrect of you

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timdon

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #154 on: January 02, 2021, 10:20:23 PM »
Mate, I actually quoted verbatim  from your posts, so not sure how it can be incorrect.
Didn't realise I was digging you out. Not sure what that means but I'll stop digging.  :)

MarkW

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #155 on: January 02, 2021, 11:38:58 PM »
I had the review of last season on DVD for Christmas and I'm watching it now and before christmas we were blowing teams away. Some of the football we were playing was some of the best I'd seen in years. Attacking quickly and with purpose. It was a joy to watch. How did we go from this to limping over the line to promotion and what's happened this season? We were better than Leeds for large chunks of last season and we looked a million miles away from them 2 days ago. Was it losing Ferguson? Diangana injury? Lockdown? It's a joy to watch this football back again but also quite sad how things have unravelled so quickly.

To go back to the original question, to first assess what went wrong, we have to determine if and by how much things "went wrong".

Bilic was appointed with a two year plan to get us out of the Championship, so one assumes that the goal of the first season was not promotion. I know I expected us to struggle initially and then finish the season strongly, perhaps pushing for the play-offs. What we actually did was take a little while to get going, have a strong late October, November and early December, before having more sporadic form from then on.

We ended the season with 83 points, which averages out to 1.80 Points Per Game across a 46 game season. We can assume that if our form was constant, we never had a good run of form and never had a slump, we would average 1.8 points over all our games, and end the season with 83 points. Below is a graph that comes a 83 point average vs our actual cumulative points total.

https://imgur.com/PIexVN7

Just again to reiterate the point, your conclusions will be based on how/if your expectations change over the course of a season. So one way of interpreting this, is that for the most part, we were always 'ahead' of our 83 end point. One could assume that if our expectation was to let the team gel, and ease ourselves into the season, then we outperformed at the start. Likewise, if you wanted to reassess the season's goals at the beginning of January (which is when I imagine many clubs do), then we were looking at a total above 83.

To that end, it is worth looking at how our PPG varied across the season. What we see in the below graph is our cumulative PPG, a 5 game rolling average, and a flat rate based on getting 83 points.

https://imgur.com/8ckh3OD

This gives a much better view of the peaks and troughs of our season. After the win vs Swansea on 8th December, we had a cumulative PPG of 2.25 and a five game average PPG of 3.00. Based on this, you could reasonably say we should have achieved over 100 points if we'd kept up that form for the rest of the season (2.25 points a game gets you 103.5 points). However, if we fast forward to our worst run of form, to the Cardiff game on the 28th January, our cumulative points PPG is back down to 1.83, meaning we'd expect to see 84 points over a season.

The fact that the PPG recovers in February is interesting - we won five, drew one and lost one, which was the loss to Wigan. On that basis we could even have expected to finish on 90 points, but alas our form dipped either side of the shutdown, and the three consecutive victories in July proved to be a false dawn.

Overall, we can see that depending on your expectations, we "went wrong" by between 1 and 17 points. At our lowest, we still should have ended with 84 points, so to finish with 83 is disappointing. When we were flying in November and February, you could have said that somewhere between 90 and 100 points was not beyond our reach.

Alternatively, you say that promotion, however it was achieved, was what was needed, especially given the financial constraints that Covid as created, so you don't care if we started well and ended badly, because the end justifies the means.
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TAFKATMNo1Fan

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #156 on: January 02, 2021, 11:42:12 PM »
To go back to the original question, to first assess what went wrong, we have to determine if and by how much things "went wrong".

Bilic was appointed with a two year plan to get us out of the Championship, so one assumes that the goal of the first season was not promotion. I know I expected us to struggle initially and then finish the season strongly, perhaps pushing for the play-offs. What we actually did was take a little while to get going, have a strong late October, November and early December, before having more sporadic form from then on.

We ended the season with 83 points, which averages out to 1.80 Points Per Game across a 46 game season. We can assume that if our form was constant, we never had a good run of form and never had a slump, we would average 1.8 points over all our games, and end the season with 83 points. Below is a graph that comes a 83 point average vs our actual cumulative points total.

https://imgur.com/PIexVN7

Just again to reiterate the point, your conclusions will be based on how/if your expectations change over the course of a season. So one way of interpreting this, is that for the most part, we were always 'ahead' of our 83 end point. One could assume that if our expectation was to let the team gel, and ease ourselves into the season, then we outperformed at the start. Likewise, if you wanted to reassess the season's goals at the beginning of January (which is when I imagine many clubs do), then we were looking at a total above 83.

To that end, it is worth looking at how our PPG varied across the season. What we see in the below graph is our cumulative PPG, a 5 game rolling average, and a flat rate based on getting 83 points.

https://imgur.com/8ckh3OD

This gives a much better view of the peaks and troughs of our season. After the win vs Swansea on 8th December, we had a cumulative PPG of 2.25 and a five game average PPG of 3.00. Based on this, you could reasonably say we should have achieved over 100 points if we'd kept up that form for the rest of the season (2.25 points a game gets you 103.5 points). However, if we fast forward to our worst run of form, to the Cardiff game on the 28th January, our cumulative points PPG is back down to 1.83, meaning we'd expect to see 84 points over a season.

The fact that the PPG recovers in February is interesting - we won five, drew one and lost one, which was the loss to Wigan. On that basis we could even have expected to finish on 90 points, but alas our form dipped either side of the shutdown, and the three consecutive victories in July proved to be a false dawn.

Overall, we can see that depending on your expectations, we "went wrong" by between 1 and 17 points. At our lowest, we still should have ended with 84 points, so to finish with 83 is disappointing. When we were flying in November and February, you could have said that somewhere between 90 and 100 points was not beyond our reach.

Alternatively, you say that promotion, however it was achieved, was what was needed, especially given the financial constraints that Covid as created, so you don't care if we started well and ended badly, because the end justifies the means.

Excellent post

MarkW

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #157 on: January 03, 2021, 12:04:11 AM »
Excellent post

Thanks. I couldn't quite face the prospect of dissecting today's performance, so this was a nice distraction. It doesn't really answer 'why' things went wrong, though the form in February suggests that whatever went wrong in December/January was corrected, before things went wrong again.
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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #158 on: January 03, 2021, 01:29:29 AM »
I know an ex-dolphin trainer that knew Sam. He had a property here in Spain. He’s probably upgraded to Dubai. I’ll text him. My mate.. not Sam. If I do get through to him.. Sam..not my mate..does anyone have a specific question for him? 
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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #159 on: January 03, 2021, 09:24:47 AM »
Mate, I actually quoted verbatim  from your posts, so not sure how it can be incorrect.
Didn't realise I was digging you out. Not sure what that means but I'll stop digging.  :)

So you’ve read something incorrect done a 2+2 and got 5... :-\

You are incorrect in your assumptions, as I’m the one who said it I can categorically tell you that your are incorrect.

Not attacking comments but quote 3 comments then make out I’m changing my story (I haven’t) and as such are calling me a liar.

Thought you wasn’t attacking comments or calling me a liar??

I passed on some information I’d heard from a good source....if you want to try and break that down into something it’s not then you are by definition “attacking” my comments and call me a liar.

Last I’ll say on it though to be fair.



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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #160 on: January 03, 2021, 10:36:49 AM »
What keeps going wrong is we're living day to day as a club with little apparent long term strategy other than a financial model to go up every couple of years to get the premier league income. The club are showing how this happens doesn't really matter. Depressing as a fan but I'd imagine if the club had to take relegation this year and promotion within 2 years they'd snap your hand off.

What a depressing time to be an Albion fan because this is the best we can hope for and we know what the premier league means for a fan - dirge!

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #161 on: January 03, 2021, 12:29:55 PM »
It all went wrong for me when we were the only West Midlands team in the Premier league. What an opportunity we had then, to grow, establish ourselves, expand the stadium etc etc, yes it would have cost but as usual we didn't make the most of the situation. We dillyed and dallyed and the rest is history. I agree hindsight is wonderful, if only, what could have been!
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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #162 on: January 03, 2021, 12:35:16 PM »
It all went wrong for me when we were the only West Midlands team in the Premier league. What an opportunity we had then, to grow, establish ourselves, expand the stadium etc etc, yes it would have cost but as usual we didn't make the most of the situation. We dillyed and dallyed and the rest is history. I agree hindsight is wonderful, if only, what could have been!

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timdon

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #163 on: January 03, 2021, 12:39:26 PM »
What keeps going wrong is we're living day to day as a club with little apparent long term strategy other than a financial model to go up every couple of years to get the premier league income. The club are showing how this happens doesn't really matter. Depressing as a fan but I'd imagine if the club had to take relegation this year and promotion within 2 years they'd snap your hand off.

What a depressing time to be an Albion fan because this is the best we can hope for and we know what the premier league means for a fan - dirge!
I'm sure they would. But no doubt if they could find a manager who could achieve this, they would sack him if we struggled in our first dozen matches back.

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #164 on: January 03, 2021, 12:41:13 PM »
Seems to me that on this forum there are enough people with the business acumen and/or financial expertise to make a damn good go of running the club as a commercial entity. There are also many who obviously have the sporting knowledge and experience of managing a team of footballers, and some who almost certainly will have innovative and ingenious ideas on which tactics and team set up will best suit the players we have at our disposal. There are yet others who have the knowledge and scouting ability to assess players skills and potential, and which players would suit whatever set up was  being used, and the negotiating and political nous to get them to sign for us. Preferably for peanuts.

So that is the club management, team management and coaching and the scouting set up all dealt with, which just leaves a quick fix needed to get in some players to make immediate improvements. Anybody feel like organising a takeover, and running the club by a committee of westbrom.com posters?

I do not have the business acumen nor in reality enough of he coaching experience, but would offer to be in the team except that whilst me left boot - the one I used to stand on is still ok, the one I used to kick the ball with has a split toe-cap, and some of the nails holding the studs on are a bit loose, so I will reluctantly have to pass on that. However I am more than capable of watching over what everybody else is doing and criticising their efforts. :P

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #165 on: January 03, 2021, 12:46:08 PM »
went wrong not sacking Tony Pulis the season he kept us up. since then we have gone down hill fast .

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #166 on: January 03, 2021, 12:47:37 PM »
Wodenson if a bunch of amateurs took over certain positions in the club I'd suggest we'd not see much difference sorry to say.

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #167 on: January 03, 2021, 01:20:04 PM »
Seems to me that on this forum there are enough people with the business acumen and/or financial expertise to make a damn good go of running the club as a commercial entity. There are also many who obviously have the sporting knowledge and experience of managing a team of footballers, and some who almost certainly will have innovative and ingenious ideas on which tactics and team set up will best suit the players we have at our disposal. There are yet others who have the knowledge and scouting ability to assess players skills and potential, and which players would suit whatever set up was  being used, and the negotiating and political nous to get them to sign for us. Preferably for peanuts.

So that is the club management, team management and coaching and the scouting set up all dealt with, which just leaves a quick fix needed to get in some players to make immediate improvements. Anybody feel like organising a takeover, and running the club by a committee of westbrom.com posters?

I do not have the business acumen nor in reality enough of he coaching experience, but would offer to be in the team except that whilst me left boot - the one I used to stand on is still ok, the one I used to kick the ball with has a split toe-cap, and some of the nails holding the studs on are a bit loose, so I will reluctantly have to pass on that. However I am more than capable of watching over what everybody else is doing and criticising their efforts. :P

Don't forget the "Dolphin" trainer!  8)
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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #168 on: January 03, 2021, 01:29:34 PM »
went wrong not sacking Tony Pulis the season he kept us up. since then we have gone down hill fast .

That was the perfect time to make the change, the last couple of months bar the Arsenal and Man Utd games we were poor. That team was stabalized to try and kick on instead we still had the survivial mindset.

By and large the last two seasons were fun and enjoyable, but in terms of progression weve gone round in one big circle. My biggest fear that in two years time we may be here again. 
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Oldbury24

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #169 on: January 03, 2021, 01:31:32 PM »
Like most teams to over achieve we need a combination of factors to come together including owner and manager agreement and shared vision, good recruitment and due dilligence at all levels and squad balance, fans behind the team and believing in the afformentioned vision and finally momentum to carry forward.  For any success at all you need some of those factors to be in place.   We currently have ZERO of those in place!   We need some of them back in place for next season, if not this one.  I don't think BS will be part of that picture but stranger things......
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 01:33:47 PM by Oldbury24 »

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #170 on: January 03, 2021, 02:04:43 PM »
Don't forget the "Dolphin" trainer!  8)
:o But Don Shula is dead!

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #171 on: January 03, 2021, 02:21:24 PM »
What went wrong was a club and manager thinking that the team that fell over the line due to other teams failings would be able to compete in the Prem.

Nobody with any sense would have said that side would have done well in this league.

Add in a totally bizarre decision to appoint Big Sam because he’s never been relegated, I mean come on, talk about not understanding how football has changed in the last 5 years. You’d think they’d have learnt from Pulis.

Really not hard to see where it went wrong. As for solving it, well it’s fairly simple.

You need a new owner. A complete new board and a manager who is going to build for the now AND the future. I’m sick and tired of you can only have one of these. You can have both with good planning. We’ve probably got 5 or 6 players at best who are worth working with.

For it all to work it starts with a new owner. We have to hope that happens very soon otherwise I fear for the club I am drastically losing interest in.

Supporting a club is highs and lows but this is a low many just don’t need in their lives presently.

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #172 on: January 03, 2021, 03:09:41 PM »
Seems to me that on this forum there are enough people with the business acumen and/or financial expertise to make a damn good go of running the club as a commercial entity. There are also many who obviously have the sporting knowledge and experience of managing a team of footballers, and some who almost certainly will have innovative and ingenious ideas on which tactics and team set up will best suit the players we have at our disposal. There are yet others who have the knowledge and scouting ability to assess players skills and potential, and which players would suit whatever set up was  being used, and the negotiating and political nous to get them to sign for us. Preferably for peanuts.

So that is the club management, team management and coaching and the scouting set up all dealt with, which just leaves a quick fix needed to get in some players to make immediate improvements. Anybody feel like organising a takeover, and running the club by a committee of westbrom.com posters?

I do not have the business acumen nor in reality enough of he coaching experience, but would offer to be in the team except that whilst me left boot - the one I used to stand on is still ok, the one I used to kick the ball with has a split toe-cap, and some of the nails holding the studs on are a bit loose, so I will reluctantly have to pass on that. However I am more than capable of watching over what everybody else is doing and criticising their efforts. :P

I've had a new kitchen fitted last week. The tap doesn't work, the cupboard doors are hanging off and the counters all scratched.

I would comment on the poor workmanship, but seeing as i'm not a plumber, carpenter or joiner, I shouldn't really have an opinion. Only those who are plumbers, joiners or carpenters should have any comments to make,  as i'm sure you agree .
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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #173 on: January 03, 2021, 03:41:05 PM »
Player's Bilic thought would have stepped up haven't and those with Premier league experience have been a let down.
Recruitment has been poor with an abundance of wide men and no defensive midfielder of note. None existent striker is also a problem.
Owner who wouldn't know where club was if you asked him to point it out on a map and knows naff all about our history.
Some other things that went or are wrong.

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Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #174 on: January 03, 2021, 03:47:23 PM »
Player's Bilic thought would have stepped up haven't and those with Premier league experience have been a let down.
Recruitment has been poor with an abundance of wide men and no defensive midfielder of note. None existent striker is also a problem.
Owner who wouldn't know where club was if you asked him to point it out on a map and knows naff all about our history.
Some other things that went or are wrong.

To be honest, that wouldn't matter to much, if his representatives knew what they were doing, but when the custodians of his interests are also floundering, we're in trouble.
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The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?