Author Topic: Relegation Mathematics  (Read 38997 times)

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OllieTheBaggie

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #50 on: April 28, 2018, 08:15:54 PM »
This is my take on the upcoming matches with the results we need to happen.

I've put green dots next to the results I think are likely, and red dots next to the ones I think are more tricky.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2018, 08:21:25 PM by OllieTheBaggie »

east-stand-nick

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #51 on: April 28, 2018, 08:21:07 PM »
This is my take of the upcoming matches.

I've put green dots next to the results I think are likely, and red dots next to the ones I think are more tricky.

I love how both our games are red. You just know all the other ones will come off and we'll balls it up  :D

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #52 on: April 28, 2018, 09:07:23 PM »
I just don't want to think about it but I am doing.

You can't deny that Mooro is doing us proud and making us feel good for the first time in absolutely AGES.

I want this to go to the wire, no matter what happens at the end. I can see the stats and it only takes one cock up for it to not work. Come On You Big Dave Baggies!
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bangkokbaggie

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #53 on: April 29, 2018, 12:38:32 AM »
Never going to happen but with the season we have had I'd be content not to finish bottom.

throstle

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #54 on: April 29, 2018, 09:12:34 AM »
Never going to happen but with the season we have had I'd be content not to finish bottom.

Bottom club goes into league cup 1st round next season, whilst 18th and 19th placed clubs enter at second round, so at least it would mean one less midweek game if we managed not to finish bottom.

baggie96

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #55 on: April 29, 2018, 09:51:11 AM »
Swansea fixtures;
Bournemouth A - lose
Saints H - draw
Stoke H - lose

34 points

Southampton fixtures;
Everton A - draw
Swans A - draw
Man City H - lose

34 points

Stoke fixtures;
Palace H - draw
Swansea A - win

34 points

We win both our games and we’re on 34 points, now that would be interesting!

Standaman

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #56 on: April 29, 2018, 12:11:09 PM »
Swansea fixtures;
Bournemouth A - lose
Saints H - draw
Stoke H - lose

34 points

Southampton fixtures;
Everton A - draw
Swans A - draw
Man City H - lose

34 points

Stoke fixtures;
Palace H - draw
Swansea A - win

34 points

We win both our games and we’re on 34 points, now that would be interesting!


That is a new ring of final day Hell. Our goal difference is -24 and Southampton's is - 19 ours would have to improve by at least 2 for the scenario to come about and theirs would be at least 1 worse.  (Stoke and Swansea would have to be worse than that.) it would come down to how many goals City beat Southampton and or how many goals we beat Palace by.
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Yardley

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #57 on: April 29, 2018, 01:37:49 PM »
If we had just simply drawn our games with Stoke, Southampton and Swansea 😞

BB74

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #58 on: April 29, 2018, 01:42:31 PM »
If we had just simply drawn our games with Stoke, Southampton and Swansea 😞

Pardew would have still been in a job.

AlbionFan

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #59 on: April 29, 2018, 01:54:15 PM »
Metaphorically speaking, this thread feels like an area we come to for a session of self-flagellation and it is quiet painful.

Our plight is what it is and we can do nowt about it, I'm sure we all feel each others pain, which is some consolation.

We can only look forward with renewed optimism thanks to Darren Moore
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17GD

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #60 on: April 29, 2018, 02:29:10 PM »
Can anyone this explain to me?

On the radio yesterday, they kept saying if Swansea draw then we're relegated. But looking at the table, a draw would only put them on 34 points, which we can also achieve. So surely they need two points to relegate us?

baggie96

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #61 on: April 29, 2018, 02:31:47 PM »
Can anyone this explain to me?

On the radio yesterday, they kept saying if Swansea draw then we're relegated. But looking at the table, a draw would only put them on 34 points, which we can also achieve. So surely they need two points to relegate us?
They’ve got to play Southampton so if they draw or win we can’t catch them and if Southampton win they’d be on 35 so we couldn’t catch them.

17GD

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #62 on: April 29, 2018, 03:04:43 PM »
They’ve got to play Southampton so if they draw or win we can’t catch them and if Southampton win they’d be on 35 so we couldn’t catch them.

Got ya. My brain struggles with maths at the best of times! At least it's all still possible, altho it looks like it will now go to goal difference even if we win both games.

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #63 on: April 29, 2018, 03:06:27 PM »
Can anyone this explain to me?

On the radio yesterday, they kept saying if Swansea draw then we're relegated. But looking at the table, a draw would only put them on 34 points, which we can also achieve. So surely they need two points to relegate us?


As it stands now, the three teams we can catch play each other and make it more complicated.

Almost all games for those teams.. need to return specific results for us:

Swansea MUST LOSE to bournemouth next week.
Southampton MUST NOT WIN against Everton next week.
Stoke MUST NOT WIN against Crystal Palace next week.
Swansea and Southampton MUST DRAW(!) in one and a half weeks time.
Stoke MUST BEAT Swansea on the last day of the season.
Southampton MUST NOT WIN against Man City on the last day of the season (could potentially be must lose by a fair few goals)

This would leave the three teams with Swansea on 34 points, Southampton on 33-34 and Stoke on 33-34. Potentially all four of us could yet finish on 34.

...so then we can only stay up on goal difference, which could be tight assuming results with Southampton.
And that's without saying we need to beat both Tottenham and Crystal Palace in the next two weeks!


So, safe to say it's the reckless hope that kills you. It won't happen!!  ;D :-X
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we8seals

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #64 on: April 29, 2018, 03:11:35 PM »
despite current - relative - excellent form you cannot get away from the fact that had we beaten swansea at home (a team without a win in 6) the mathmatics would be a lot more positive. generally pathetic, gutless and fightless home peformances against huddersfield, southampton, west ham, swansea and an on the beach leicester have turned a retrievable situation into a disaster. I dont care who the manager is or was the players should hang their heads in shame. (but todays professional footballers have neither shame nor professional pride!!) As an example i offer up southampton at home - full house - 1-0 up - hawthorns rocking - spirit of Cyrille and the gutless spineless players muck it up - that has nothing to do with tactics or the manager just lack of application.
All that being said the appointmemt of the arrogant cockwomble Pardew was an accident waiting to happen.

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #65 on: April 29, 2018, 03:17:05 PM »
despite current - relative - excellent form you cannot get away from the fact that had we beaten swansea at home (a team without a win in 6) the mathmatics would be a lot more positive. generally pathetic, gutless and fightless home peformances against huddersfield, southampton, west ham, swansea and an on the beach leicester have turned a retrievable situation into a disaster. I dont care who the manager is or was the players should hang their heads in shame. (but todays professional footballers have neither shame nor professional pride!!) As an example i offer up southampton at home - full house - 1-0 up - hawthorns rocking - spirit of Cyrille and the gutless spineless players muck it up - that has nothing to do with tactics or the manager just lack of application.
All that being said the appointmemt of the arrogant cockwomble Pardew was an accident waiting to happen.

Can't agree with that, Pardew got the tactics massively wrong against Southampton that game.

We played a flat 4-4-2 with Barry who didn't have the legs for 4-4-2 meaning we got dominated in central midfield, McAuley was bought in and badly exposed, and Jay Rodriguez who was in great form was inexplicably dropped for the game. We took the lead but it was obvious we were going to concede in that game.

The point he should have been sacked is having seen that game, he then played pretty much exactly the same system against them a couple of weeks later in the cup. Whilst Barry was kept in even in spite of the obvious problems and his role in the taxi incident. It was obvious after that game Pardew wasn't going to turn it round.

Instead we kept him on for 5 very winnable games because we accepted relegation. 2 wins out those five and we'd be outside the relegation spots now.

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #66 on: April 29, 2018, 03:34:02 PM »
Can't agree with that, Pardew got the tactics massively wrong against Southampton that game.

We played a flat 4-4-2 with Barry who didn't have the legs for 4-4-2 meaning we got dominated in central midfield, McAuley was bought in and badly exposed, and Jay Rodriguez who was in great form was inexplicably dropped for the game. We took the lead but it was obvious we were going to concede in that game.

The point he should have been sacked is having seen that game, he then played pretty much exactly the same system against them a couple of weeks later in the cup. Whilst Barry was kept in even in spite of the obvious problems and his role in the taxi incident. It was obvious after that game Pardew wasn't going to turn it round.

i dont disagree - the tactics were appalling and everyone in the ground could see what was going on in midfield. However

Instead we kept him on for 5 very winnable games because we accepted relegation. 2 wins out those five and we'd be outside the relegation spots now.
i dont disagree - the tactics were appalling and everyone in the ground could see what was going on in midfield. However these are professional players being paid 50/60/70/80 times the average salaries of most of us - we all have to think for ourselves in our jobs. And there was more than one player on that pitch that quite honestly just did not give even close to 100% on the day. Matt P to name just one

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #67 on: April 29, 2018, 08:58:10 PM »
What's really annoying is how close it still is. I mean, we are still down but I saw that we've lost 26 points from winning positions this season. That's mental when you think about it.  At this level teams shouldn't drop many points once they're ahead.

VVVAlbion

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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #68 on: April 29, 2018, 10:12:16 PM »
So summing it up...
The ONLY way we can stay up is…

Chelsea beat Swansea
Palace beat Stoke
Bournemouth beat Swansea
Albion beat Spurs
Everton beat Southampton
Swansea draw with Southampton
Albion beat Palace
Man City beat Southampton
Stoke beat Swansea

If it all happens it would leave Stoke & Saints on 33, and Us and Swansea on 34.
We would stay up on GD
Odds on that happening  (with Paddy Power) 1586.86 - 1 and that is without the Palace v West Brom game included as for some reason betting on West Brom to win twice cannot be combined in a multiple (clearly they know something!). We are 4-1 to win that match, so if my calculations are correct then they would be odds of 7934.3-1.  Strangely, they're only offering 125-1 on the outright avoid relegation. Rip off!
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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #69 on: April 29, 2018, 11:10:19 PM »
Odds on that happening  (with Paddy Power) 1586.86 - 1 and that is without the Palace v West Brom game included as for some reason betting on West Brom to win twice cannot be combined in a multiple (clearly they know something!). We are 4-1 to win that match, so if my calculations are correct then they would be odds of 7934.3-1.  Strangely, they're only offering 125-1 on the outright avoid relegation. Rip off!

I was trying to get this priced up earlier. Best price I can get on us staying up is 150/1 but the accumulator should be generating odds in excess of 2000/1 even allowing for the fact that you could back a draw and an Everton win in the Everton v  Saints game and draw or Palace win for the Stoke v Palace game. Indecently if it comes down to the final day we are a lot shorter than 4/1 to beat Palace. 
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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #70 on: April 30, 2018, 05:14:50 AM »
We still need an extraordinary sequence of results to stay up which in reality is extremely unlikely. At least the dream is still alive for a few more days.

There's a reasonable chance we'll be relegated before we kick off against Spurs if Stoke win at home to Palace in the early game. Ideally it would end in a draw potentially giving Stoke something to play for in the final game at Swansea (needing to beat Swansea by 3 or 4 goals to have a chance).

Albion beat Spurs - unlikely given Spurs need the Champions League spot
Bournemouth beat Swansea - hopefully Bournemouth turn up for final home game
Everton beat or draw with Southampton - late kick off, hopefully a home win rather than a draw (don't want to rely on Man City to win by up to 4 goals in last game), again final home game to sign off on a positive note for Big Sam
Swansea draw with Southampton - would be a minor miracle if we take it to the last day, our great escape relegated Saints last time
Albion beat Palace - thanks for playing the youth team Roy, just kidding will be a tough game after we relegated Palace in the previous escape
Stoke beat Swansea - tough ask could get caught on counter needing a big win
Man City beat Saints - if it goes to the final day we could be praying for a 4 goal City margin if Southampton get a point at Everton


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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #71 on: April 30, 2018, 06:26:29 AM »
I think I'd sooner have been relegated 4 weeks ago than have this long drawn out slow death
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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #72 on: April 30, 2018, 09:44:25 AM »
I just want us to win our last two games whatever happens. Can't say we didn't go out on a bang at least then.

Oh yeah, that and al the other results to pan out. Valium please.
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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #73 on: April 30, 2018, 11:30:06 AM »
If Stoke win the early kick off vs Palace, we will be down before kick off vs Spurs  :(
If they lose though, it is very much game on.
Get ya Palace scarves out folks!
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Re: Relegation mathmatics
« Reply #74 on: April 30, 2018, 11:51:16 AM »
Stoke and Soton may well lose BUT we've not beaten Spurs at home since 2008...just for a reality check.

we've won only 1 of our last 15 prem games against them (the 0-1 at white hart lane when Morrison scored with a header) we've drawn 9 and lost 5, so while we might not lose a win seems unlikely.

Sorry!

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