[overseas baggie]

Only a guess but i think Lai is in the damage limitation phase.

As stated he lost a lot of investment within a year, he probably looked at Albion and thought a nice steady investment after 7 years in the premier league upto his arrival.

I think we have gone up and now have the premier league funding back, i think he will of paid what had to be paid and put a small (ish) in premier league terms budget for the recruitment and i think after those things that would probably leave a very pot of money in the bank, i dont think that pot of money will be for a rainy day, a bit may be released in January but i think the bulk will make its way back to Lai to start repaying his investment. I know he cannot just take funds, it would all have to be done properly but at some point i think will be what happens.

I think if we stay up then its great for him as he could sell us for more money than if we went down and probably make a few quid, but i think its damage limitation now, if we go down, we will cash in on our assets, and again those funds will go towards repaying his investment, allowing for that and also the pot of money, he will then try and sell the club and just try to cover what he initially paid and get the club off his hands, i think everything will be done legal and proper and i dont think he will give a stuff what any fan thinks of him doing it.

Lai isnt a fan and we arent some play thing to try and win stuff and have a **** swinging contest with his mates, we were what seemed a steady investment for him and his backers but within 12 months that investment had gone, one way of doing it would be to of chucked another £25m at the budget and give ourselves a better chance, but then if we went down (which would still be very likely) he has paid out an extra £25m which could go eventually towards repaying him.

It seems we have gone for a approach of buying better younger players who will increase in value which i am quite happy with as a fan as i think its more exciting but i do think he hasnt released enough funds and we will come up short.

Lai can’t take it out unless we have cumulative profits to distribute as dividends and I don’t think we have.

The extra £25m that you suggest he throws at trying to keep us up - where is that coming from if he doesn’t have it available / can’t send it to us from China and we can’t borrow it in the current market?   I fully agree with you that it’s exactly what we need but I just don’t see where it’s going to come from!

[BigFrank20]

Lai can’t take it out unless we have cumulative profits to distribute as dividends and I don’t think we have.

The extra £25m that you suggest he throws at trying to keep us up - where is that coming from if he doesn’t have it available / can’t send it to us from China and we can’t borrow it in the current market?   I fully agree with you that it’s exactly what we need but I just don’t see where it’s going to come from!

This is in no way a serious proposal but what are the training ground and the Hawthorns itself worth in the current market if used as collateral for a loan?

[FallOutBoy]

I don't get all the anger at Lai. He said we needed to be self sufficient, the people who he charged with running the club (some of whom were on Peace's recommendations) haven't made the most of the money we did have, and set the club back years.

He could turn up a bit more often, but if he's heavily involved with running businesses in China that could be difficult. It is clear that changing circumstances mean he hasn't been able to take advantage of owning us in the way he originally intended, but we're still being run how he said we'd be run.

[overseas baggie]

This is in no way a serious proposal but what are the training ground and the Hawthorns itself worth in the current market if used as collateral for a loan?

Mortgaging the club’s real estate is extremely dangerous if the loan taken out on that security cannot be repaid.  The key question is always how will the borrowings be repaid? 

There are current live proposals for a breakaway of the Championship from the EFL and a complete redistribution of parachute payments because of how they hugely advantage the relegated club.  It is bad enough being relegated with parachute payments.  It would be financially devastating to go down with greatly reduced parachute payments.  Imagine going down with greatly reduced parachute payments AND a loan which cannot be repaid, and which is secured on the Hawthorns and training ground.

The risks to the very existence of many clubs due to COVID and due to the already reckless and unsustainable spending in football are higher than ever.  It is time to be prudent, not to literally gamble the club’s existence by borrowing what we will not be able to repay.

[baggiemart]

We are enterring dangerous territory.

I think it is safe to say we will be relegated this season. No way can we compete and our current players are not premiership class.  When we enter the Championship we have 2 years parachute payments. After that we are in danger of doing a Bolton because most of the championship clubs are dependant on the owners putting in money to make them competitive.  If Lai is unwilling to do that then we are into a downward spiral towards the bottom of the league.

We just about got promoted and if Lai had invested a realistic amount we could have competed and at least make a fight of it and at the same time safeguard his investment but like others have said he is damage limitation mode. He's probably thinking why throw good money down the drain !!!

[Astle1968]

We are enterring dangerous territory.

I think it is safe to say we will be relegated this season. No way can we compete and our current players are not premiership class.  When we enter the Championship we have 2 years parachute payments. After that we are in danger of doing a Bolton because most of the championship clubs are dependant on the owners putting in money to make them competitive.  If Lai is unwilling to do that then we are into a downward spiral towards the bottom of the league.

We just about got promoted and if Lai had invested a realistic amount we could have competed and at least make a fight of it and at the same time safeguard his investment but like others have said he is damage limitation mode. He's probably thinking why throw good money down the drain !!!

I really don't know where any of this comes from. Ironically the only way we could possibly 'do a Bolton' is if Lai, or someone else, does exactly what a number of fans are criticising him for not doing at the moment and throws a lot of money at the club.

Whilst we continue to operate the way we are at present (and have for the last 15 years) it's unlikely we will ever be too much lower than a mid table Championship club.

Our current scouting set up and model for identifying/signing players is holding us back just as much as lack of funds at the moment.

[darbolina]

I will be amazed if Lai still owns us in two or three years time, in fact I think we're well and truly already up for sale albeit it's not being openly broadcast. Like I said before, look at actions (in-actions) rather than words. 

[leeiswba]

I will be amazed if Lai still owns us in two or three years time, in fact I think we're well and truly already up for sale albeit it's not being openly broadcast. Like I said before, look at actions (in-actions) rather than words.

The problem is the price he paid, he’s either going to have to take one almighty loss or someone is going to have to pay 2 maybe even 3 times what we are are actually worth to buy him out.

The only way Lai will go is if he is willing to take a huge loss and I can’t see that

[baggiemart]

I really don't know where any of this comes from. Ironically the only way we could possibly 'do a Bolton' is if Lai, or someone else, does exactly what a number of fans are criticising him for not doing at the moment and throws a lot of money at the club.

Whilst we continue to operate the way we are at present (and have for the last 15 years) it's unlikely we will ever be too much lower than a mid table Championship club.

Our current scouting set up and model for identifying/signing players is holding us back just as much as lack of funds at the moment.

To even keep at where you are in any divsion you still need to replace players who get too old, players that leave, players that are not good enough. With no money going into the club we will find ourselves having to sell any good players we have to survive.

Teams that do that utlimately drop down the divsions.  Before we know it we could find ourselves in League 1 or 2.  That's why we could be doing a Bolton or a Sunderland.

[Astle1968]

To even keep at where you are in any divsion you still need to replace players who get too old, players that leave, players that are not good enough. With no money going into the club we will find ourselves having to sell any good players we have to survive.

Teams that do that utlimately drop down the divsions.  Before we know it we could find ourselves in League 1 or 2.  That's why we could be doing a Bolton or a Sunderland.

But both Sunderland and Bolton got where they are because they tried to overspend initially with owners pumping money in to the club that the club itself couldn't keep with. Then as soon as that funding is cut off the club is immediately in huge trouble.

Whilst we continue to spend money the club generates itself it's very unlikely we will find ourselves in league 1, let alone league 2. Take a club like Derby or Sheff Wed for example who are both similar sized clubs to us. Both have owners who have thrown money in to the club and have tried to get around FFP restrictions to invest more money. I'd say both are far far more likely to be in League 1 than we are.

[Albion79]

Thanks for the reply overseas baggies, i dont know lots about the financial side of the club so appreciate your knowledge.

Is there a basic summary of how the premier league funding works? I am probably completely wrong but in my simple terms i know we get about £170m for being promoted (i think it was £180m but £10m for loss of some tv deal) and last season we would of got about £80m as the second year parachute payments.

So in theory we have an extra £90m income compared to last year I know there were big bonuses to be paid, and some players are on flex contracts, but we have got a lot of big earners off the wage bill in recent years (Foster, Rondon, Dawson, Jrod, Evans, etc) so imagine the wage bill is a lot less than it was.

Allowing for the budget for new players and their wages i have just thought it would seem there would be a surplus pot of money which i previously referred too and said we could take the risk of throwing another £25m at transfers only to possibly end up with the same result - relegation.

If it is the case and there is a pot of money, i have no issue with the club keeping it back, income will change because of no matchday income, etc so makes sense to have money for a rainy day, i would rather that than borrow and not be able to pay it back.

My guess on Lai (and it was a guess) was that pot of money could be classed as profit a year or two down the line and if we go down Lai pays himself it to try and claw back what he invested but as Jacko and Overseas baggies pointed out, we seem to be upto our max money wise.

As for Lai, its going as i expected, he has never said he would be pumping money in, he has always said it would be self sustainable, we cut our cloth accordingly with relegation and i think we are making sure we are financially secure, as a fan of course we want more money spent but the club is a business, people with good knowledge on here of accounting seem to think that we have spent what we can afford too and i would rather that than risk getting in a mess.

Be interesting to see how far the Villa owners go when they realise for all the money they keep spending is still light years away from the elite clubs, Randy Lerner made big promises and after a few years got bored when he realised they were nowhere near, Man City have spent billions and still not won their holy grail of the champions league and have only got close (ish) once.

[baggiemart]

But both Sunderland and Bolton got where they are because they tried to overspend initially with owners pumping money in to the club that the club itself couldn't keep with. Then as soon as that funding is cut off the club is immediately in huge trouble.

Whilst we continue to spend money the club generates itself it's very unlikely we will find ourselves in league 1, let alone league 2. Take a club like Derby or Sheff Wed for example who are both similar sized clubs to us. Both have owners who have thrown money in to the club and have tried to get around FFP restrictions to invest more money. I'd say both are far far more likely to be in League 1 than we are.

If that money hadn't been pumped in by their owners they would probably already be in league 1.  How many points has Rooney earned for Derby while he's been there !!!   No way could Derby afford Rooney without help from the owners.

Football today is such that very average players in the Championship earn far more than any other professionals in every day life such as Surgeons, Lawyers etc.  Those are wages that Championship clubs cannot afford so they have to be helped out by their owners.

[overseas baggie]

Thanks for the reply overseas baggies, i dont know lots about the financial side of the club so appreciate your knowledge.

Is there a basic summary of how the premier league funding works? I am probably completely wrong but in my simple terms i know we get about £170m for being promoted (i think it was £180m but £10m for loss of some tv deal) and last season we would of got about £80m as the second year parachute payments.

So in theory we have an extra £90m income compared to last year I know there were big bonuses to be paid, and some players are on flex contracts, but we have got a lot of big earners off the wage bill in recent years (Foster, Rondon, Dawson, Jrod, Evans, etc) so imagine the wage bill is a lot less than it was.

Allowing for the budget for new players and their wages i have just thought it would seem there would be a surplus pot of money which i previously referred too and said we could take the risk of throwing another £25m at transfers only to possibly end up with the same result - relegation.

If it is the case and there is a pot of money, i have no issue with the club keeping it back, income will change because of no matchday income, etc so makes sense to have money for a rainy day, i would rather that than borrow and not be able to pay it back.

My guess on Lai (and it was a guess) was that pot of money could be classed as profit a year or two down the line and if we go down Lai pays himself it to try and claw back what he invested but as Jacko and Overseas baggies pointed out, we seem to be upto our max money wise.

As for Lai, its going as i expected, he has never said he would be pumping money in, he has always said it would be self sustainable, we cut our cloth accordingly with relegation and i think we are making sure we are financially secure, as a fan of course we want more money spent but the club is a business, people with good knowledge on here of accounting seem to think that we have spent what we can afford too and i would rather that than risk getting in a mess.

Be interesting to see how far the Villa owners go when they realise for all the money they keep spending is still light years away from the elite clubs, Randy Lerner made big promises and after a few years got bored when he realised they were nowhere near, Man City have spent billions and still not won their holy grail of the champions league and have only got close (ish) once.

Unfortunately it’s nothing like that amount of money!

Norwich got £94.5m for finishing bottom last season.  The £180m to which you refer “for going up” is the total of our 2020/21 guaranteed minimum money plus the 3 seasons worth of parachute payments if we get relegated.  So when people say “we get £180m for going up” that’s the minimum extra that it’s worth but for the next 4 seasons, not as an outright prize!

Championship clubs get around £8m a season of they don’t have any parachute funding. Therefore after 3 years the funding drops off the cliffedge if a relegated doesn’t get back up before the parachute funding runs out.

When you take into account the bonus money to players for getting promoted, plus players wages usually doubling in the PL under their contracts, it’s very easy to see where the extra PL money goes. If we finish bottom this year and receive £94.5m for this season, and received £8m plus £34m parachute funding last season, then we’ve only really got an extra £52.5m this season.  After that bonus and the wage increases it’s pretty easy to see why our transfer budget was only £25m!   

It is possible for PL clubs to make losses of an average of £39m a year over 3 seasons, but those losses require to be funded cash flow wise and we can’t do that.  Leeds can, and so can Fulham, because their owners have deep pockets but they still can’t exceed those losses over 3 seasons in the PL.  Leeds have a lot more to spend because they had no parachute money last year and operated a low wage bill.  Their funding has increased from £8m to a minimum of £94.5m plus what their owners pump in.

Fulham would be in an identical position to us if their owners weren’t on a position to bankroll them.

[Albion79]

Thanks mate, that makes things a lot clearer, i thought it was £180m outright, fortunately i dont work in accounting!

That does explain the budget side much clearer and makes sense, it also dismisses my theory that there may be a pot of money for a rainy day!

It also confirms even more Lai's plan of us being self sustaining, like you say Fulham have Shahid Khan to bankroll them, we dont have and to be fair, our owners have never said they would, it cant be said they have promised the world and not delivered because they said from day one it was business as usual with plans to progress sensibly (sadly that bit went out the window with relegation first year!)

[AlbionFan]

West Brom comment: Guochuan Lai is letting down fans with lack of investment

Source: https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/west-bromwich-albion/2020/10/08/west-brom-comment-guochuan-lai-is-letting-down-fans-with-lack-of-investment/

[darbolina]

It's a start by the E&S and hopefully they help to turn up the volume on fan's discontent with Lai and his half hearted ownership, which seems to be lacking ideas, vision and communication with the fans.

[PartisanBaggie]

Like Lai could care less about what’s written in a regional newspaper 5,000 miles away.

Proving me wrong would of course be appreciated Goochy! 🙃

[paulosull]

Will need a source because it sounds like horse ****

again reported in express and star money put a side today in express and star

[baggiejohn]

again reported in express and star money put a side today in express and star

The same express and star that said Lai was an asset rich billionaire, when there's absolutely no evidence for that at all.

[leeiswba]

Don’t really get the article, to me it says Albion have no money and Lai probably doesn’t really have any actual cash but his lack of investment is letting us down.

If we haven’t any money and he doesn’t have any then where is this investment meant to come from?

[BalisPen]

Oh, how I long for someone like a Hale or Summers who loved the Albion AND had some actual money and didn't just see as his golden ticket to millions like jp.

We can say this or that about Lai, but he did not cheat his way into our saying that he was a life long west brom fan born and bred in the area, nor did he say he will spend millions to do this and that.

He is a get rich quick fool who fell for the rubbish fed him by peace and thought yes, I have some of this and probably didn't even know the relegation was possible.

[tex]

JP made a lot of money from the club and as a business case this was an exceptional performance. For those of us that did not make a ton of money from our passion, we are left with the nuclear fall out.

[paulosull]

The same express and star that said Lai was an asset rich billionaire, when there's absolutely no evidence for that at all.

sounding like orange man across the pound what is it fake news!!!

[letmereadposts]

I feel so deflated. On promotion I felt this was a second chance to achieve something meaningful a second time around in the premier league. I was looking forward to taking on Villa and looked to Wolves as an example of what we could do in the first couple of seasons with some luck and good recruitment. Yet now I see our rivals on a different level, I see the same approach from the club that make us a joke outside and a frustration within.

The Southampton game was all too familiar for me and a classic example of Albion in the premier league. The majority of scouting targets appear restricted to the M25 belt and the prospect of Gray from Watford is truly, truly awful. Admittedly we haven’t signed some of these (poor) players linked but it’s clear at this stage the approach the club are taking.

My fear is we are relegated with a whimper, embarking on a championship campaign without Pereira and/ or Diangana, with a goalkeeper the fans rightly or wrongly hate, without a strikeforce for a third season, and without a top-class manager for that level in Bilic.

I appreciate it is very early in the campaign and that our business in the market is incomplete so apologies for being negative. I’m just at a point where this seems all too familiar and I’ve become pverly sensitive to a) our reputation as a club and b) how well our rivals have progressed. Hopefully my fears are wrong, we tighten up as a unit sign a goal scorer, stay up and build from there. I appreciate we need more from certain players on the pitch, however I also expected more from senior leaders at board room level at the club at this stage.

[zippyandbungle]

again reported in express and star money put a side today in express and star

Jacko asked a straight question....
What is the source that you saw the budget had been downgraded by the amounts you quoted?

There is nothing in the E&S report that states what you said....