Author Topic: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)  (Read 31119 times)

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Standaman

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Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« on: August 15, 2020, 10:39:39 AM »
I thought I'd start a thread on the state of the transfer market in general, picking apart individual deals and seeing where the players we have been linked with actually end up.

The window is open and fans across Europe are getting ever so frustrated because not much is happening and just to add to the weirdness of it all some of the bigger clubs are still playing out the final stages of European competitions while this years qualifying rounds are underway  and other leagues such as Belgium and Scotland for instance have started the new season.

The window closes 5th of October.

A few observations

The £100m plus transfer is dead.

Or at least in hibernation. For a £100m transfer to happen there has to be a generational talent available and there has to be a bidding war or stupidly big release clause. The big two Spanish teams that drive this end of the market are out. Without them the other elite clubs can pick up talent without breaching £100m.

Man United's interest in Sancho might have triggered a deal of that magnitude but at the time of writing that does not look like it is happening. Dortmund don't have to sell this window and are taking the view there will be better markets to sell into and Man United aren't prepared to meet the price.

Chelsea get busy

Having sold Hazzard, Morata and a host of other lesser lights last season and being subject to a transfer ban Chelsea found themselves with cash in a market place desperate for cash. With the added advantage of Abramovitch's willingness to underwrite their transfer dealings they have spent nearly £100m on Werner and Ziyech.  Yet the much touted deal for Havertz has not yet materialised but in general Chelsea seem to be the busiest of the major clubs.

Where's the money gone

Chelsea have dropped some big fees into the top end of the Dutch and German markets as have Napoli into the French market through their purchase of Victor Osimhen for over £60m from Lille. The question is have the selling clubs spent the money further down the pyramid sparking other deals?

Obviously until the window closes there won't be a definitive answer.

RB Leipzig have spent £8m on a player from RB Salzberg who in turn spent £4m on a player from Lyon. The Werner money is still largely in the bank.

Ajax have bought two players for £22m one of whom is a very obvious replacement for Ziyech at fees that don't look greatly reduced from last summer.

Lille have spent over £30m and a very large chunk of that on the young but exciting talent of Johnathon David from Gent. In turn Gent have spent half the David fee on 5 players from clubs further down the pyramid.

The Chelsea and Napoli money hasn't as yet been circulated through the market and it should be noted that Leipzig, Ajax, Lille and Gent are all teams in the Champions League and the money from the Champions League is key to propping up the finances at the top end of most European leagues in the pandemic environment.

Beware the loan to buy trap

On the face of it the Italian market looks busy yet on closer inspection a lot of the deals are the buy ends of the last years loan to buy deals. A lot of mid level Serie A clubs have big commitments on players that in this market look horribly over priced. Special shout out here to relegated SPAL who have managed to buy Kevin Bonifazi (no me neither) for over £9m from Torino that is horrible when you are playing behind closed doors in Serie B.

Is Valencia the new Normal?

Valencia without European football have a big wage bill and bleed money add in the impact of Covid-19 and the situation is critical. Their owners response has been to put the whole first team squad up for sale. Cue outrage from fans and media alike.

To date they have unloaded 3 key players Torres to Man City for an initial fee of £20m think the add-ons would have normally been put into the upfront fee there. Francis Coquelin and Dani Parejo to Villareal for a combined fee of £5m this obviously stings Valencia fans but is the reality of the situation.

There are more clubs in Valencia's situation than say in Chelsea's most are trying to sell as few players as they can get away with to keep the wolf from the door but the truth is many players aren't all that saleable and getting them off a club's wage bill is of paramount.

Premier League 

Cue the tumbleweed gif. Yes, I know Brighton. Aside from Chelsea's splurge not much has happened. The most interesting deal is Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg peak age central mid at a Premier League club with more than one suitor for £15m or a net of £3m when you factor in Walker-Peters going to Southampton. Last summer that would have been £20m plus even allowing for Levy's reputation for parsimony.

Interesting none transfer news, Liverpool's reported dialogue with Norwich over Jamal Lewis.

Liverpool "How much for your boy Lewis"
Norwich "£20m not a penny less".
Liverpool "How about £10m.."
Norwich "$%%$$ right off!!"
Liverpool  "There's no need to take that tone"

48 hours latter Liverpool strike an £11m deal for Konstantinos Tsimikas.

Finally Willian to Arsenal on a free 3 year contract £220k a week on boy that is so bad in a market which is plainly not what it once was.

Overall not much is happening we are at the logjammed point in the market nobody wants to sell nor buy. Yet the lots of sellers who have to sell and a few cash rich clubs that can afford to buy but most the of buyers are waiting for the sellers to blink first.



 
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2020, 01:24:40 AM »
Great write up Stan, although the Ramsdale to Sheff Utd fee today might just hint that the market is starting to wake up.

I’m actually really frustrated that Bournemouth are still managing to get incredible fees for their players when nobody else around seems to have. Nearly £60m for 2 players, when over the last 2 years we were only been able to fetch around £22m for our most valuable 4 players, including a player in Johnny Evans who is arguably as good as Nathan Ake (as proved the last 2 years at Leicester). I get the age profiles are different, but it just feels like Bournemouth have been given a get out of jail free card by two incredibly inflated fees at a time nobody expected them.

I still think Sancho will end up at Man Utd for silly money. Woodward is a very poor CEO on the footballing side of the business and he doesn’t quite have the in knack of getting good value. Other clubs see him coming, unlike with Liverpool who have shown with their full back search that they can just move on to other targets who are just as effective very quickly.

Chelsea’s transfer activity suggests they might make for an exciting title race next season and I’m looking forward to seeing Werner and maybe Havertz on a regular basis, but with Lampard in charge it’s hard to tell if he will be good enough to get the best out of them.
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Standaman

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2020, 03:06:17 PM »
Great write up Stan, although the Ramsdale to Sheff Utd fee today might just hint that the market is starting to wake up.

I’m actually really frustrated that Bournemouth are still managing to get incredible fees for their players when nobody else around seems to have. Nearly £60m for 2 players, when over the last 2 years we were only been able to fetch around £22m for our most valuable 4 players, including a player in Johnny Evans who is arguably as good as Nathan Ake (as proved the last 2 years at Leicester). I get the age profiles are different, but it just feels like Bournemouth have been given a get out of jail free card by two incredibly inflated fees at a time nobody expected them.

I still think Sancho will end up at Man Utd for silly money. Woodward is a very poor CEO on the footballing side of the business and he doesn’t quite have the in knack of getting good value. Other clubs see him coming, unlike with Liverpool who have shown with their full back search that they can just move on to other targets who are just as effective very quickly.

Chelsea’s transfer activity suggests they might make for an exciting title race next season and I’m looking forward to seeing Werner and maybe Havertz on a regular basis, but with Lampard in charge it’s hard to tell if he will be good enough to get the best out of them.

Thanks, the Ramsdale news broke about an hour finished posting. To say I am staggered is an understatement I know they wanted a keeper because Henderson is not going back to them and United might have sold but only for a dizzying amount of money, it might be only business they do this summer. Never the less that is at least twice as much as it should be.

I hope nobody at Bournemouth thinks that they are doing a good job because they are not. Getting lucky with Ake and Ramsdale covers up a lot of bad deals and takes some of the sting out of a relegation that probably should not have happened. The Evans deal was a badly structured deal but it only became bad if we were relegated.

I think the Sancho deal is dead not because of United side of the deal, you are right they do have a history of talking tough but acting weak but Dortmund have publicly pulled the plug and they do tend to mean what they say  which is why they are much better operators in the market than United. I think United might turn to young Jack next that might be interesting.

Chelsea are obviously spending money and are not finished I expect some new defensive options between now and when the window closes but the question mark has to be Lampard and whether he has the nous to pull the whole thing together.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2020, 05:07:40 PM »
Latest from Dutch newspapers; Ronald Koeman almost certain to be named Barca manager.  Ajax hopeful of re-signing Luis Suarez.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2020, 06:33:09 PM »
The Green eyed monster rears it's head for the first time this summer with news that Croatian under 21 International Midfielder Moro has joined Dynamo Moscow for just under £8m he would have been ideal for us. In other Russian news Alfredo Gaich a promising Argentine striker has joined CSKA again for £8m, he was very vaguely linked with ourselves and Leeds a few weeks ago.

While the fees seem reasonable I would caveat that Russian clubs do pay very well and I think overseas sports stars get some pretty significant tax breaks so are often they are quiet attractive for mid level signings such as these and damn it they muddy the waters that the Albion could/should be shopping in. 
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 08:10:50 PM by Standaman »
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2020, 07:58:14 PM »
Russian and Ukrainian clubs have brilliant scouting networks it seems. They always sign some of the best talents before they are superstars.

£8m for Moro shows you can get players for under £10m if you look in Eastern Europe.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2020, 08:57:50 PM »
I heard a discussion on the radio the other day (Guillame Ballague, I think) and he was saying that players in Italy only pay 20% tax which is one of the reasons players are going there to the detriment of the Spanish league. I suspect other countries have similar advantages (Turkey / Russia etc)
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2020, 09:06:11 PM »
Russian and Ukrainian clubs have brilliant scouting networks it seems. They always sign some of the best talents before they are superstars.

£8m for Moro shows you can get players for under £10m if you look in Eastern Europe.

It does also give them room to become stars and grow at a level not quite as high as some of the Western European leagues.  Dump them in a struggling prem and they might not be ready, worse their development gets completely derailed. Sometimes players need that and I think that has held back some of the English talent over the years.

The above aside, we should still be looking to those markets though.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2020, 08:20:14 AM »
Benfica are the busiest club in Europe and the fees look a little bit chunky and the Vertonghen deal is not the sort of deal that Portuguese clubs generally do i.e. no fee but big wages and no sell on value. . Then I remembered the Joao Felix deal and they are still spending the E160m surplus from last summer.

It is clubs that have particular circumstances and  Champions League revenues that shield them from the worst impacts of the pandemic who are spending "normally" and that is providing just enough liquidity to keep prices surprisingly buoyant. The prospect that fans will be allowed back into stadiums is also giving sellers just enough hope to hold their nerve on price.

Yet this cannot last football clubs in many cases have lost very significant parts of their income the economic impact on many of them who are already not economically sustainable without transfer income therefore they will need to price to sell at some point.

Man United have started to show an interest in David Brooks and Jack Grealish can't see them signing either of those and Sancho (or if they are constructing a team based on logic they shouldn't) the other deal that is an interesting pointer is   Doucoure multiple clubs interested a club that probably needs to sell a player that wants to leave a fee that has potential to blow up.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2020, 09:12:13 AM »
Tumble weed is currently blowing through the top end of the transfer market. Seriously for all talk all the pee and all the wind not a lot is actually happening. When the Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg moved to Spurs on 11th August for £15m it was the 25th biggest deal of the summer. Nearly 3 weeks latter it is the 28th biggest deal.

The 3  bigger deals that have happened are Chilwell to Chelsea, Ramsdale to Sheffield United and former Bolton loanee Rodrigo moving from Valencia to Leeds for a reported £27m. Obviously this breaks Leeds transfer recorded and they get their showing ambition badge but I don't get it.

 Someone tried to explain to me that this was a bargain because Valencia were asking nearly twice the price last summer and he might of joined Barca. Not even Barca were stupid enough to part with more than £50m for this guy and nobody bought him at that price so maybe that tells somebody something.

 Now I am absolutely the last person to look at a striker's goal scoring record and think that it is the last word on anything, but Rodrigo's has had two good seasons in 10 but between those seasons he has been  largely ineffective and it has had two seasons since his last good one. He is 29 and he ain't improving.

If you are Leeds and you have £27m to spend on a striker what you do is go SC Amiens with £13.5m and you buy Serhou Guirassy like Stade Rennais have just done (this week's Green eyed monster alert)

There are slew of deals in the pipeline but then again there seemed to be when I last updated this a week ago and most of those mentioned have not happened. With PL squads back in training maybe things will start to pick up but all is still quiet on the transfer front.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2020, 02:46:29 PM »
https://theathletic.com/2002693/2020/08/27/money-manager-facilities-how-footballers-really-choose-a-new-club?source=user-shared-article

Really interesting article on The Athletic about the motivations for footballers moving.

Can be summarised by this paragraph:

One agent describes it simply as “the three Fs — football, finance and family”. He adds, “Those will be the defining factors at different stages of their career. So I think there’s a lot more to it than just money.”

Goes to show that sometimes it's not just about who will pay the most, but plenty of other things. Of particular interest to me is how some clubs present themselves to players using analysis to show how the player will fit in/be developed
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2020, 07:02:50 PM »
https://theathletic.com/2002693/2020/08/27/money-manager-facilities-how-footballers-really-choose-a-new-club?source=user-shared-article

Really interesting article on The Athletic about the motivations for footballers moving.

Can be summarised by this paragraph:

One agent describes it simply as “the three Fs — football, finance and family”. He adds, “Those will be the defining factors at different stages of their career. So I think there’s a lot more to it than just money.”

Goes to show that sometimes it's not just about who will pay the most, but plenty of other things. Of particular interest to me is how some clubs present themselves to players using analysis to show how the player will fit in/be developed
It is all about the money....e copy when it’s not, but still is

For instance if 5 teams all came in for Pererira at the end of next season and 4 of them (Wolfsburg,RB Leipzig,Everton and Lyon ) all offered 100k a week....and Barca offered 80k a week ...where would he go
However
If the 4 all offered the same, Barca offered 42k a week but Lyon had made it clear that his family would be well looked after and his mom and dad could have an house....then he’d probably go to Lyon

I think it’s easy for reporters to say statements like “it’s not about the money”....especially when there are multiple clubs after you and you know that the parameters of the offers they make are going to be serious money anyway.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2020, 10:58:47 PM »
In the Sun tommorow

Leeds and Brighton fighting it out for Rico Henry
Villa offering Watkins 70k pw to outbid Fulham. Also want Behrama.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2020, 08:29:49 AM »
Fulham well and truely throwing CoVID caution to the wind. The Helda Costa money, £27m plus add ons for Rodrigo, £16m for Koch and then you have the £20m they owe for Augustin which they will almost certainly end up having to pay in the next 12 months.

I guess they are confident they will stay up and therefore can afford it.

Feels certain that Watkins will sign for Villa too, which should be a good signing.

I don't blame the Albion for being cautious with money in this window as it's sensible, but with our rivals all strengthening, i'd say our chances of staying up are fairly slim. Really now need to have a ling term think and use this transfer window to sign players with one eye on the future. Let's build for long term survival.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2020, 08:42:59 AM »
Fulham well and truely throwing CoVID caution to the wind. The Helda Costa money, £27m plus add ons for Rodrigo, £16m for Koch and then you have the £20m they owe for Augustin which they will almost certainly end up having to pay in the next 12 months.

I guess they are confident they will stay up and therefore can afford it.

Feels certain that Watkins will sign for Villa too, which should be a good signing.

I don't blame the Albion for being cautious with money in this window as it's sensible, but with our rivals all strengthening, i'd say our chances of staying up are fairly slim. Really now need to have a ling term think and use this transfer window to sign players with one eye on the future. Let's build for long term survival.

Isn’t it funny though that when Fulham spent £120m and went down, and villa spent loads and scraped on the last day....people said it was wasteful....now because it’s all about knocking ourselves , they are speculating .

We could go and spend £200m if e wanted, it brings no guarantees and whilst I am clever enough to see we need additions and some investment, I’m not going to dance myself dizzy moaning that every signing might not be a big enough spend or the player that I wanted.
Every single year of following this club there has been a higher spend player that hasn’t quite done what we thought, and a lower spend/ free signing that has excelled.
After pullis, Pardew and Covid I just want to watch football being played well and people back in stadiums enjoying the match day experience.....if at the end we get relegated, then I look forward to Swansea/Preston away and even more football matches .
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2020, 09:14:09 AM »
What's the alternative?  Don't spend, accept relegation and that Peace was right and we're nothing more than a mid table championship team? No thank you, that's small time and I have more belief in Albion than that.

Every club will have signings that succeed and some that don't.  Thr ones who stand the best chance tend to be the ones that come with a price tag.

What's even more concerning is that other clubs seem to have money to spend while we just make excuses.  We must be thr only football team in the Prem who is financially worse off on thr Prem than in the Championship.

When the clubs around us are stengthening it makes our job even harder.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2020, 01:39:16 PM »
Have you ever been in the bookies and seen the bloke betting on anything and everything. He will fairly regularly shout out as he wins, but he leaves the bookies worse off, whereas the bloke who comes in now and then and quietly leaves with a moderate win is the bloke the bookie hates.

I prefer to think of us as the latter
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2020, 02:25:36 PM »
What's the alternative?  Don't spend, accept relegation and that Peace was right and we're nothing more than a mid table championship team? No thank you, that's small time and I have more belief in Albion than that.

Every club will have signings that succeed and some that don't.  Thr ones who stand the best chance tend to be the ones that come with a price tag.

What's even more concerning is that other clubs seem to have money to spend while we just make excuses.  We must be thr only football team in the Prem who is financially worse off on thr Prem than in the Championship.

When the clubs around us are stengthening it makes our job even harder.

Wages tend to be a better predictor of success, rather than transfer fee. Teams with the highest wage bills tend to, on average, have more success in the long term.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2020, 09:08:14 PM »
Donny Van de Beek has agreed a 5-year contract to sign for Manchester United. The 23-year old will now fly to Manchester to complete the formalities of the move and undergo his medical. (Source: De Telegraaf)
My posts are my personal views and any links or external inclusions are not necessarily an endorsement by me.
I'm an ordinary bloke with no hidden agenda, here just to enjoy all things Albion etc.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2020, 09:36:04 PM »
Fulham have just officialy confirmed Reed on a 4 year deal for 8m and Lemina on a season loan for £2m.

Good business.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 09:52:01 PM by gazberg »

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2020, 09:50:38 PM »
Leeds are in talks to sign Joško Gvardiol for around €20m from Dinamo Zagreb and are in negotiations with Udinese for the signing of Rodrigo de Paul for €30/35m. (Source: @FabrizioRomano)
My posts are my personal views and any links or external inclusions are not necessarily an endorsement by me.
I'm an ordinary bloke with no hidden agenda, here just to enjoy all things Albion etc.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2020, 10:01:02 PM »
If they sign Rodrigo de Paul i'll be very impressed. Those 2 if signed will push them onto around the 120m mark with plenty of window left.

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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2020, 10:03:00 PM »
 :o Leeds could be very good under Bielsa next season. Wouldn’t surprise me if they’re top 8
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2020, 10:39:52 PM »
DEAL DONE: Fulham have signed Mario Lemina on a season-long deal from Southampton, with an option to make the move permanent. (Source: @FulhamFC)
My posts are my personal views and any links or external inclusions are not necessarily an endorsement by me.
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Re: Transfer Window Watch (Non Albion)
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2020, 11:51:37 PM »
Donny Van de Beek has agreed a 5-year contract to sign for Manchester United. The 23-year old will now fly to Manchester to complete the formalities of the move and undergo his medical. (Source: De Telegraaf)
Damn it. Probably Ajax's most creative player. Man U will be very hard to stop both here and in Europe. Don't you just hate 'em.  >:(
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 11:53:12 PM by alex1 »
Einstein: A definition of insanity- someone who takes the same action time after time, even though previously it's always ended in failure