[Blowee]

It depends upon whether they believe some of the younger players in the squad are ready to play regularly in the Premier League and how many leave. Probably Olsen will go and I guess it depends upon offers for the like of Rondon etc. Might struggle to spend any money if we can't bring in the sort of player they want. I understand that the policy is to sign high quality but the squad is looking rather thin.

[baggiejohn]

Money? Haven't got a clue.

Players? I'd like to see another centre back, another striker & possibly a left back.

I'd also like to see some of our acacdemy players brought up to speed between now & the rest of the season, to give us a reasonable chance in the domestic cups next season

[geoff]

I don't think the amount of money we spend is that critical its how we spend what we have.
If we have £30m to spend and spend it wisely isn't that better than spunking £60m+ like the vile and dog heads have?
Quality over quantity every time
For the record I went with £30m

I would also add "you pay for what you get"

[tuamigos]

I would also add "you pay for what you get"

Not always true either.
Look at what we paid for the likes of Phillips, Yacob, Nyom, Livermore, McAuley. Peanuts in todays market and they haven't done too badly this far

[TheBrom]

Not always true either.
Look at what we paid for the likes of Phillips, Yacob, Nyom, Livermore, McAuley. Peanuts in todays market and they haven't done too badly this far

Yep exactly that. I've said many times that there are plenty of studies showing amount spent on transfer fees and league position and there's usually no real correlation at all. You pay whatever you're prepared to pay and the other team is willing to accept, not necessarily the true value of the player. Player wages are a much better measure of how good a player is, and there is usually a clear correlation between player wages and league positions

[geoff]

No i agree, but other factories can be attributed to low cost moves like their contracts with their previous clubs were coming to a end, contract talks failed & were about to leave for nowt, family reasons or the manager thought it was best to let him go.
I repeat there are still gems out there but on the whole  "you pay for what you get"

[BAGGIES4LIFE]

We must have a surplus in this current financial due due to the sale of Saido, plus finishing higher in the league should see at least £40 m being available with new revenues for next season on board. Spend the money wisely we should have the best team seen as the Hawthorns since the days of Big Ron. Well we can dream!

[TheBrom]

No i agree, but other factories can be attributed to low cost moves like their contracts with their previous clubs were coming to a end, contract talks failed & were about to leave for nowt, family reasons or the manager thought it was best to let him go.
I repeat there are still gems out there but on the whole  "you pay for what you get"

But if they do really well at your club and you then don't offer them the going rate in wages for similar players of their quality you'll more than likely lose them to the more successful teams who are willing to pay their players more in wages.

[geoff]

Not always true either.
Look at what we paid for the likes of Phillips, Yacob, Nyom, Livermore, McAuley. Peanuts in todays market and they haven't done too badly this far

Leicester city are a prime example that you don't need to spend big to win, the film "moneyball" shows that to.
Thou 9 times out of 10 the team with the better quality squad wins.

[geoff]

But if they do really well at your club and you then don't offer them the going rate in wages for similar players of their quality you'll more than likely lose them to the more successful teams who are willing to pay their players more in wages.

I agree so its up to us to make the right investment to the player by paying him what he's worth to us & try to fulfill his footballing ambitions to if we can't then thats our fault.

[ex coseley kid]

The bare minimum as ever.

On the other hand, look at the Villa 

[Standaman]

Fees vary because of so many factors and only one of them is the quality of the player. Wages on the other hand tend to correlate a lot closer to the quality of the player. There are players that we can't attract even as free agents because we can't pay them £100k a week and they are good enough to go to a club that will or they are happy to  dump their career in exchange for a lucrative contract in China.

[baggiejohn]

Fees vary because of so many factors and only one of them is the quality of the player. Wages on the other hand tend to correlate a lot closer to the quality of the player. There are players that we can't attract even as free agents because we can't pay them £100k a week and they are good enough to go to a club that will or they are happy to  dump their career in exchange for a lucrative contract in China.

Don't know if I'm in a minority, but I tend to think of the total cost anyway now. You're correct, a 3 year player contract at £60k per week is a £9 million commitment by the FC.

[barnestormer]

no more than the 30 million for me and would rather it be 2 great first 11 signings rather than 5 average squad players and doubt if we do spend towards the 30 million.this is Albion after all don't forget

[BaggieVN]

Depends on how much playing time the likes of Sam Field and Jonathan Leko get between now and the end of the season and whether they have the ability to break into the first team. If not, then we will look elsewhere.

[wba13]

Just what are average players barnstomer  Phillips and Nyom cost under 10 mill between them so there average Hmmmm

[Standaman]

There has been a lot of speculation about what may happen during the summer with regard to transfers and what exactly our budget might be. Invariably there have been wild estimates based on adding up reported fees presumed wages etc.

I thought I would take a stab at working through the numbers based on what can be gathered from the accounts and then trying to work out what that means firstly in terms of player budget (wages and fees) and what that might mean in terms of headline transfer fees during the coming windows.

To do this I have made a number of assumptions.

 My first assumption is Lai will run the club along similar grounds to his predecessor.  That is run the club at a small profit (5% to 15% of turnover) but reinvest that profit over the following years in players and infrastructure. He could obviously choose a different path. Either take the profit out of the club in form of a dividend or put in additional equity. However in the absence any compelling evidence to the contrary I feel confident that Lai has bought the Peace operating model.

My 2nd assumption is that the club’s profit and expenditure will be aligned to the TV contract e.g. the first year of the new contract sees the club make its biggest profit which is reduced over the course of the following as player expenses rise.

The 3rd assumption is that the only part of the club’s income that increases is the TV contract and the only significant increase in expenditure is the player budget.  The one variable that would throw the numbers out of kilter is a major player sale but for the sake of argument assume a very large fee for someone like Rondon isn’t part of the our summer plans and this would probably be balanced out by an additional purchase if it were.
 
My final assumption is that first team players and coaching staff make up 95% of the club’s reported wage bill.

For those not familiar with the term amortisation is the way that football club’s account for transfer fees. If a player is signed on a five year deal his book value is discounted by 20% each year until the contract expires and his book value is zero. i.e. £10m initial fee with a 5 year contract costs £2m a year in amortisation.

So from the accounts it is possible to deduce for last year
Turnover £98.3m
Wages £73.7
Other Operating Expenses £9.4m
Operating Profit £15.2m
Profit on player Sales £2.8m
Amortisation (£13.1)
Profit before tax & Interest £4.8m


Implied Player budget 2015/2016

Wages £70m
Amortisation £13.1
Total £83m (84% of turnover)

Projected Figures 2015/2016
Turnover based on 9th £144m
Wages £100m
Other Operating expense £10m
Operating Profit £34m
Profit on player Sales £14m
Amortisation (£18m)
Profit before tax & interest £30m

Implied Player Budget

Wages £95m (of which £15m is bonuses for 9th place finish)
Amortisation £18m
Total £113m (78% of turnover)

Taking the current budget as a baseline and assuming 85% of the total retained profit and minimum income for the year of £145m i.e. the TV money for finishing 20th is the £97m. However the wage bill also falls initially because until the club secures its Premier League status there are no bonuses.

Wages £90m
Amortisation £33m
Total £123m (85% of turnover and retained profit)

What this means in terms of transfers.

Up to four additional players earning £40k to 60k a week with total fees of between £50m and £60m depending on the length of their contract. Anything over and above that would see one or more members of the current squad leave.

Obviously there is a trade-off between wages and fees. In very rough terms if we spend an additional £1m on wages that is about £3m to £4m less that can be spent on a fee.

I would also add that this is the whole year’s budget and some probably should be held back as a contingency fund for January. 

[Mo]

I've been told the club has a centre half as its top priority .

Will be interesting to see how things pan out as we all know Pulis likes a certain type whether his vision and the clubs vision are aligned we shall see . Personally I'm not convinced .

We can't  have another situation where pulis wants his targets who are beyond the clubs reach and then end up with another deadline day scratching around for championship players and reserve team players from other premier league clubs.

I think we will be lucky to spend 20 million .

[WBAinDEVON]

Min 50 million to stay where we are or is JP still around

[sing on our own]

I wonder what young player we will loan and put their career on hold for 8 months.

[liverbaggie]

Hey guys,I am a simple person so I will keep it simple.
Firstly,when I started in business I was told by a very successful man to never assume anything and that's what I stuck to.
Secondly,we have between 12-15 million from bera sale.
Thirdly,what did we not spend last summer 10-20 million.
So I would think that we have between 22-35 million as it stands.
With the new deal kicking in etc say a further 10 million into the existing pot gives us say 32-45 million
Should Mr.Lai sanction say 20 million I reckon that would give us a minimum of around 50 million with a maximum of 65 millions.
So Mr.Lai it's over to you.
Trouble is how many quality players could we get for that?
Plus of course any sales we could generate.
Finally,Mr.Lai could blow us out of the water and wack in 100 million then he means business,you never know.
Last point,I don't know of any successful business that could stay in business with such a massive wage % against income, ridiculous assumption you could easily end up with annual losses with the only way of  staying afloat is by selling players at the end of every season.
But as we know football is a funny old game.
By the way does Mr.Lai take an annual salary,dividend or bonus? He wouldn't work for nothing would he?

[Standaman]

Few points.

1. Any profit from the Berahino sale is in £30m profit for this year as is any other unspent funds.
2. Lai isn't working for the club but Williams and Goodman are but their salaries merely replace Peace's and Jenkins which are already in the base salary numbers
3. Lai might take a dividend or he might subsidise the club but nothing that has happened to date suggests that he will.
4. All the numbers I worked on are based on the new deal from this year onward.
5. Our wages to turnover has been in excess of 70% nearly every year during Peace's tenure and we haven't made a loss while we have been in the Premier League.

[Topman]

I've been told the club has a centre half as its top priority .

Will be interesting to see how things pan out as we all know Pulis likes a certain type whether his vision and the clubs vision are aligned we shall see . Personally I'm not convinced .

We can't  have another situation where pulis wants his targets who are beyond the clubs reach and then end up with another deadline day scratching around for championship players and reserve team players from other premier league clubs.

I think we will be lucky to spend 20 million .


I think if we spend that or less then pulis will walk. This summer we will find out what Albion are about regarding the new regime etc. I myself will be disgusted if we are again kicking of with pulis or whoever saying we need xyz players. i will watch with interest as I have learnt to be let down by this club so many times. I fear we may become a club linked with certain players but never actually getting them with the usual excuses put out by the club.

[Adder]

Few points.

1. Any profit from the Berahino sale is in £30m profit for this year as is any other unspent funds.
2. Lai isn't working for the club but Williams and Goodman are but their salaries merely replace Peace's and Jenkins which are already in the base salary numbers
3. Lai might take a dividend or he might subsidise the club but nothing that has happened to date suggests that he will.
4. All the numbers I worked on are based on the new deal from this year onward.
5. Our wages to turnover has been in excess of 70% nearly every year during Peace's tenure and we haven't made a loss while we have been in the Premier League.

Thanks for putting together your 9:23 post - gives a useful background and would take most of us a week to put together.

[Standaman]

I've been told the club has a centre half as its top priority .

Will be interesting to see how things pan out as we all know Pulis likes a certain type whether his vision and the clubs vision are aligned we shall see . Personally I'm not convinced .

We can't  have another situation where pulis wants his targets who are beyond the clubs reach and then end up with another deadline day scratching around for championship players and reserve team players from other premier league clubs.

I think we will be lucky to spend 20 million .

We can spend more than £20m without going to the owner for a subsidy so I think that is pessimistic.

If Pulis is firmly attached to British based and established then that what it means in effect. Generally speaking we will only sign players from other Premier League clubs who are out of favour with their current club or Championship players (the relegated teams count as Championship players in my book) and it doesn't matter when in the window they sign it is still the same pool. Although that pool can expand and contract during the course of the window.

I am encouraged that Pulis is going to look at players from Europe during the extended break we have over the next week or so.

Min 50 million to stay where we are or is JP still around

It doesn't matter how much we spend nor who we buy we are probably going backwards next season in the league the only question is how far back and will that be off set by a cup run.