The trouble each time the dice are thrown and they don't come up with promotion the club slips further away from promotion and probably is worth less to a potential buyer. Hull City were sold for £20m and Sheffield United had a £115m deal lined up (bearing in mind they were in the top 2 at the time and have been subsequently promoted) which has since collapsed.
Are we closer to Hull or Sheffield United right now? Even if a buyer is out there at whatever price Lai wants we aren't going to be sold overnight. Hull were in effect for sale for eight years. The Allams weren't the easiest people to do a deal with but it just shows how little appetite there is for Championship football clubs in general and overpriced ones in particular, the Allams started out looking for £100m.
It is debatable as to whether the MSD loan has funded last season's throw of the dice or whether it will fund this season's promotion punt. Overseas and I disagree on this but we have to be getting close to the last throw of the dice if they aren't already in the air.
In order to properly compare asking prices a lot more analysts is required. Hull City have a negative balance sheet and don’t own their stadium. Sheffield United had £96m in debts in June 2021 and are late filing their June 2022 accounts. We on the other hand have a positive balance sheet and only £20m of debt, most of which is covered by as yet unspent cash on the other side of the balance sheet.
Right now I’d say that we are truly worth somewhere around £60m. In another year’s time, without promotion, probably no more than £40m. And if Lai holds out for an unrealistic price, thwarting any sale, then the risk of running out of cash and flirting with administration could see all of that shareholder value evaporate.
Chances of promotion next season? In a stronger division than this year and with a reduced budget, it cannot possibly be more than a 5-10% chance. All commercial logic suggests that he needs to sell this summer at a realistic price.