[overseas baggie]

OK, I meant his intentions regarding keeping or selling the club and if the latter at what time and/or price.
It's possible he will investigate ways of getting cash out of Group and sell when he has exhausted his options.  These options are narrowing because MSD has creditor precedence but he may feel that there are a few other ways to extract value.

I don’t believe there’s now a single way of Lai taking money out of the club without being in direct breach of the MSD loan security.  I’d be very worried indeed if that protection wasn’t there.

[Dexy]

I don’t believe there’s now a single way of Lai taking money out of the club without being in direct breach of the MSD loan security.  I’d be very worried indeed if that protection wasn’t there.

As long as thats correct I can't help but feel they are getting ready to sell , unless I'm missing something there's no other way to claw money back .
Don't know about the Ron issue and why he's gone but can see why Lai and co hung on just in case we made it up through the Play Offs .

[robnewbold]

Lai is totally out of his depth and has no interest in us as a Club, as Supporters or as a Community and never had.
He bought a Football  Club because it was a status symbol at the time, 'the thing to do' and  to show off. No other motive.
The genius in all this is the guy who sold it to him, and stumbled, laughing all the way to the bank.
Now we are the ones stumbling and no ones laughing anymore.

[TheBaggieMan]

Lai is totally out of his depth and has no interest in us as a Club, as Supporters or as a Community and never had.
He bought a Football  Club because it was a status symbol at the time, 'the thing to do' and  to show off. No other motive.
The genius in all this is the guy who sold it to him, and stumbled, laughing all the way to the bank.
Now we are the ones stumbling and no ones laughing anymore.

The only thing Guochuan Lai has done for us was to buy us all a beer at our first home game. Since then, he’s done nowt!

[Standaman]

My understanding is that Lai and co would like to sell up and have been so inclined for a number of years. However their original asking price was unrealistic and unfortunately while they have adjusted their demands the decline in the value of the club has outstripped their adjustments, so the price they are asking is still probably unrealistic.

My view is that the club be sold but not until either it is on the brink of financial collapse or has indeed fallen into administration. 

[graka]

Only my opinion but I think having taken the loan to enable us to tick over for another year he will hope under a competent head coach we have a chance of promotion where on he could recoup more of his initial outlay
If that fails to happen then god only knows what his master plan is

[baggie96]

My understanding is that Lai and co would like to sell up and have been so inclined for a number of years. However their original asking price was unrealistic and unfortunately while they have adjusted their demands the decline in the value of the club has outstripped their adjustments, so the price they are asking is still probably unrealistic.

My view is that the club be sold but not until either it is on the brink of financial collapse or has indeed fallen into administration.

He wanted £200 mill to sell for a while. Imagine it’s now £100 mill which is optimistic. A lot of clubs this level get taken over for modest sums but have huge debts, as far as I know our only substantial debt is the MSD loan which I assume we still have part of sitting there for wages. I think we get taken over soon, they can’t afford for us to go into admin.

[Standaman]

He wanted £200 mill to sell for a while. Imagine it’s now £100 mill which is optimistic. A lot of clubs this level get taken over for modest sums but have huge debts, as far as I know our only substantial debt is the MSD loan which I assume we still have part of sitting there for wages. I think we get taken over soon, they can’t afford for us to go into admin.

The price they want is always seems a little bit beyond the current reality. If they want a £100m that might be achievable if we are promoted but no doubt they would stick a few extra £10m's on the price and put off potential buyers.

The danger is they keep hanging on for the upturn and taking on ill advised punts on keeping expensive players on the payroll to the point that they run out of money. Our ultimate decline will be by accident rather than design,

[overseas baggie]

The price they want is always seems a little bit beyond the current reality. If they want a £100m that might be achievable if we are promoted but no doubt they would stick a few extra £10m's on the price and put off potential buyers.

The danger is they keep hanging on for the upturn and taking on ill advised punts on keeping expensive players on the payroll to the point that they run out of money. Our ultimate decline will be by accident rather than design,

He paid £200m when it was probably worth £150m.  He wanted to sell for £200m to get his money back when it was worth £100m, and he’ll now be asking for £100m now when it’s worth no more than £60m.

Not sure who’s advising him, but it all started by stupidly paying £50m over the odds.

Would he take £60m now?  I doubt he’s got much choice.

[Albionic]

I think it’s one last tilt at promotion, he will know that CCs ppg last season would have got us close if not for the Bruce debacle.
The loan supports that last effort, if by Xmas we are not in the frame, he has to cut and run

[Standaman]

The trouble each time the dice are thrown and they don't come up with promotion the club slips further away from promotion and probably is worth less to a potential buyer. Hull City were sold for £20m and Sheffield United had a £115m deal lined up (bearing in mind they were in the top 2 at the time and have been subsequently promoted) which has since collapsed.

Are we closer to Hull or Sheffield United right now? Even if a buyer is out there at whatever price Lai wants we aren't going to be sold overnight. Hull were in effect for sale for eight years. The Allams weren't the easiest people to do a deal with but it just shows how little appetite there is for Championship football clubs in general and overpriced ones in particular, the Allams started out looking for £100m. 

It is debatable as to whether the MSD loan has funded last season's throw of the dice or whether it will fund this season's promotion punt. Overseas and I disagree on this but we have to be getting close to the last throw of the dice if they aren't already in the air. 

[overseas baggie]

The trouble each time the dice are thrown and they don't come up with promotion the club slips further away from promotion and probably is worth less to a potential buyer. Hull City were sold for £20m and Sheffield United had a £115m deal lined up (bearing in mind they were in the top 2 at the time and have been subsequently promoted) which has since collapsed.

Are we closer to Hull or Sheffield United right now? Even if a buyer is out there at whatever price Lai wants we aren't going to be sold overnight. Hull were in effect for sale for eight years. The Allams weren't the easiest people to do a deal with but it just shows how little appetite there is for Championship football clubs in general and overpriced ones in particular, the Allams started out looking for £100m. 

It is debatable as to whether the MSD loan has funded last season's throw of the dice or whether it will fund this season's promotion punt. Overseas and I disagree on this but we have to be getting close to the last throw of the dice if they aren't already in the air.

In order to properly compare asking prices a lot more analysts is required.  Hull City have a negative balance sheet and don’t own their stadium.  Sheffield United had £96m in debts in June 2021 and are late filing their June 2022 accounts.  We on the other hand have a positive balance sheet and only £20m of debt, most of which is covered by as yet unspent cash on the other side of the balance sheet.

Right now I’d say that we are truly worth somewhere around £60m. In another year’s time, without promotion, probably no more than £40m.  And if Lai holds out for an unrealistic price, thwarting any sale, then the risk of running out of cash and flirting with administration could see all of that shareholder value evaporate. 

Chances of promotion next season?  In a stronger division than this year and with a reduced budget, it cannot possibly be more than a 5-10% chance.  All commercial logic suggests that he needs to sell this summer at a realistic price.

[zippyandbungle]

In order to properly compare asking prices a lot more analysts is required.  Hull City have a negative balance sheet and don’t own their stadium.  Sheffield United had £96m in debts in June 2021 and are late filing their June 2022 accounts.  We on the other hand have a positive balance sheet and only £20m of debt, most of which is covered by as yet unspent cash on the other side of the balance sheet.

Right now I’d say that we are truly worth somewhere around £60m. In another year’s time, without promotion, probably no more than £40m.  And if Lai holds out for an unrealistic price, thwarting any sale, then the risk of running out of cash and flirting with administration could see all of that shareholder value evaporate. 

Chances of promotion next season?  In a stronger division than this year and with a reduced budget, it cannot possibly be more than a 5-10% chance.  All commercial logic suggests that he needs to sell this summer at a realistic price.

You have quite rightly factored in the debts of the other clubs, should we not have a much greater chance than 10% if the Bruce not being there was factored in along with the fact that cornerman is now working with a team he knows well.?

[overseas baggie]

You have quite rightly factored in the debts of the other clubs, should we not have a much greater chance than 10% if the Bruce not being there was factored in along with the fact that cornerman is now working with a team he knows well.?

I wouldn’t say “much greater”.  Looks at who’s come down, and who’s still got parachute funding.  Chances of automatic promotion?  Two places out of 24.  Very slim.   Chances of reaching the play-offs?   Obviously somewhat higher.  Chances of being the winner of the play-offs?   One in 4 at that point.   I’d say 5-10% chance overall is about right.

[Baggiee_Boyy_Benn]

I wouldn’t say “much greater”.  Looks at who’s come down, and who’s still got parachute funding.  Chances of automatic promotion?  Two places out of 24.  Very slim.   Chances of reaching the play-offs?   Obviously somewhat higher.  Chances of being the winner of the play-offs?   One in 4 at that point.   I’d say 5-10% chance overall is about right.

20-25% would be closer to the mark.

[overseas baggie]

20-25% would be closer to the mark.

Nowhere near that high.  The bookies odds will suggest exactly that.

[johnny Cash]

Nowhere near that high.  The bookies odds will suggest exactly that.

Whilst I agree with you at 5-10%, skybet has us at 4/1 6th favourites which surprises me and suggests a much better percentage chance.

There are only 8 teams lower than 10/1 though which suggests find it tough to seperate many sides at the moment.

[gazberg]

3 PL sides coming down easily go into the top 6 on paper.

Then there is Boro, Cov, Sunderland and us all about the same.

Going to be a lot tougher next season than the last 2 for sure.

[Jeremy Roland Peace]

3 PL sides coming down easily go into the top 6 on paper.

Then there is Boro, Cov, Sunderland and us all about the same.

Going to be a lot tougher next season than the last 2 for sure.

add in Norwich and Watford also.

Bristol City and Stoke have money behind them if used in the right way. same for Hull

[gazberg]

add in Norwich and Watford also.

Bristol City and Stoke have money behind them if used in the right way. same for Hull

I don't rate them 2 to be fair but it's all about opinions of course.

[Hull Baggie]

This thread is for discussing Guochuan Lai.

There is a thread already active for discussing next season.

[ex coseley kid]

I still, no matter what, cannot wrap my head around the fact that Ken and Lai must surely realise they are diminishing their asset with every move they make.

I can accept that they know jack about football but thy must have some business acumen?

This whole thing beggars belief. I'm starting to think that The Vile funded Lai's takeover, it's the only logical explanation.

[gazberg]

I still, no matter what, cannot wrap my head around the fact that Ken and Lai must surely realise they are diminishing their asset with every move they make.

I can accept that they know jack about football but thy must have some business acumen?

This whole thing beggars belief. I'm starting to think that The Vile funded Lai's takeover, it's the only logical explanation.

I felt like this the first few years of his reign but i think you are giving him far too much credit.

He can't see past the end of his nose.

[baggies_24]

I still, no matter what, cannot wrap my head around the fact that Ken and Lai must surely realise they are diminishing their asset with every move they make.

I can accept that they know jack about football but thy must have some business acumen?

This whole thing beggars belief. I'm starting to think that The Vile funded Lai's takeover, it's the only logical explanation.

You’d think at some point they would get lucky on an appointment but alas it’s been one shocking appointment after another & the list keeps getting worse as time goes on.  You’d think they would look at what the successful clubs are doing & try and create a similar structure, they don’t need a knowledge of football to put together a good structure at the club, Wolves owners have managed to do it (along with pumping millions into the club).

[gazberg]

You’d think at some point they would get lucky on an appointment but alas it’s been one shocking appointment after another & the list keeps getting worse as time goes on.  You’d think they would look at what the successful clubs are doing & try and create a similar structure, they don’t need a knowledge of football to put together a good structure at the club, Wolves owners have managed to do it (along with pumping millions into the club).

Thing is the Wolves owners had/have a level of interest in their asset. Lai never has.