[Standaman]

The club is not worth a fraction of what Lai paid for it.

Given he overpaid by a factor of at least 50% there was never a route for Lai to make a profit.

Any future investor who buys off Lai cannot afford to make the same mistake. As a Championship club there is a route to profit. Give the club a bit of a makeover get promoted hold onto Premier League status for a season and then sell up.

The fly in the ointment is

a) getting promoted off the base Championship income is difficult so that promotion might take 5 seasons

b) each of those seasons will cost between £10 to £20m

c) the season in the Premier League is going to be tough to maximise the chance of survival it might need another £50m

To keep within these parameters whoever it is needs to get the bulk of the major calls right e.g. Director of Football and Head Coach appointments.

Given the above nobody with any business sense should buy the club for more than £50m.

I wouldn't even try to buy from Lai, just wait for the administration to happen it will save about £20m

[johnny Cash]

that still has to play out .

Don’t think it does to be honest. Even if peace did loan money to buy shares, I looked in to it before and it’s not illegal. 

I’d be amazed if there is ever a situation where Lai’s debt becomes peace’s again. I just don’t see a set of circumstance where that happens.

The statute of limitations  for most financial civil claims is 6 years too, so even if a case was discovered now, the courts are unlikely to entertain it. 

[paulosull]

Don’t think it does to be honest. Even if peace did loan money to buy shares, I looked in to it before and it’s not illegal. 

I’d be amazed if there is ever a situation where Lai’s debt becomes peace’s again. I just don’t see a set of circumstance where that happens.

The statute of limitations  for most financial civil claims is 6 years too, so even if a case was discovered now, the courts are unlikely to entertain it.

we’ll minority shareholders think there is an issue with Ebenezer’s scheme to buy more shares.

[gazberg]

Don’t think it does to be honest. Even if peace did loan money to buy shares, I looked in to it before and it’s not illegal. 

I’d be amazed if there is ever a situation where Lai’s debt becomes peace’s again. I just don’t see a set of circumstance where that happens.

The statute of limitations  for most financial civil claims is 6 years too, so even if a case was discovered now, the courts are unlikely to entertain it.

Correct (i've just covered this as part of my debt specialist training)


Lai knowingly agreed to take on Peace's debt. Peace owes us nothing. Lai on the other hand..........

[gazberg]

Lai was found to a bit fit and proper owner before he purchased the club and was also found to be fit and proper owner ( i know i know  ) in the last 12 months or so by the EFL.

He's not got a leg to stand on.

[baggie96]

Surely if we don’t get promotion this season then he will look to sell? What’s the point of letting us fall into admin?

[overseas baggie]

well the money owed by Lai and Ebenezer won’t be paid going by report of auditors. As for £20 million loan will struggle to pay that without player transfers which again auditors think are unrealistic. Oh and we have to pay money to some company that owner has a stake in.

That isn’t what the accounts say.  They (correctly) say that there is a “risk” that they won’t be repaid, and in the case of the WS loan the repayment of it is now guaranteed by Holdings, which is worth 88% of whatever the club is worth.

The auditors don’t say that selling players is unrealistic. They say that sales cannot be guaranteed, which is of course is correct.

And no, “we” don’t have to pay money to some company that the owner has a stake in.  That transaction is by Holdings which is absolutely nothing to do with Group, Club, or anyone except Yunyai.

There is widespread misunderstanding of the contents and meaning of the wording in the audited accounts.

[baggiejohn]

That isn’t what the accounts say.  They (correctly) say that there is a “risk” that they won’t be repaid, and in the case of the WS loan the repayment of it is now guaranteed by Holdings, which is worth 88% of whatever the club is worth.

The auditors don’t say that selling players is unrealistic. They say that sales cannot be guaranteed, which is of course is correct.

And no, “we” don’t have to pay money to some company that the owner has a stake in.  That transaction is by Holdings which is absolutely nothing to do with Group, Club, or anyone except Yunyai.

There is widespread misunderstanding of the contents and meaning of the wording in the audited accounts.

It's Kieran Maguire that's claiming that Lai has a stake in Warmfront Holdings.

We've already had a conversation on how this impacts West Bromwich Albion FC & Group, but in any event the loan from Warmfront Holdings is secured against a stake in WBA Holdings, so how can there be an indefinite default interest of 5% per month on the loan.

[WBArgo]

If/when we do get new owners, I just hope they're decent.

There's a lot of dodgy sharks sniffing around financially poor clubs so sometimes you can get passed around from one to another. Hopefully we get someone genuine.

[gazberg]

If/when we do get new owners, I just hope they're decent.

There's a lot of dodgy sharks sniffing around financially poor clubs so sometimes you can get passed around from one to another. Hopefully we get someone genuine.

The chances of finding another Lai are next to zero however not impossible

[overseas baggie]

The club is not worth a fraction of what Lai paid for it.

Given he overpaid by a factor of at least 50% there was never a route for Lai to make a profit.

Any future investor who buys off Lai cannot afford to make the same mistake. As a Championship club there is a route to profit. Give the club a bit of a makeover get promoted hold onto Premier League status for a season and then sell up.

The fly in the ointment is

a) getting promoted off the base Championship income is difficult so that promotion might take 5 seasons

b) each of those seasons will cost between £10 to £20m

c) the season in the Premier League is going to be tough to maximise the chance of survival it might need another £50m

To keep within these parameters whoever it is needs to get the bulk of the major calls right e.g. Director of Football and Head Coach appointments.

Given the above nobody with any business sense should buy the club for more than £50m.

I wouldn't even try to buy from Lai, just wait for the administration to happen it will save about £20m

Agree 100% other than your final sentence.  Far too dangerous to go down that route.

However I really think that a sale will happen in the next couple of months. Just a hunch.

[overseas baggie]

It's Kieran Maguire that's claiming that Lai has a stake in Warmfront Holdings.

We've already had a conversation on how this impacts West Bromwich Albion FC & Group, but in any event the loan from Warmfront Holdings is secured against a stake in WBA Holdings, so how can there be an indefinite default interest of 5% per month on the loan.

I usually agree 100% with Kieran Maguire (I even bought his excellent book) and whilst he may be correct re Warmfront, the transaction involves Holdings only, and secured over a shareholding in Holdings, and so is absolutely irrelevant to Group and everything below Group.

Holdings is 100% owned by Yunyai. It is simply their own holding company. Whatever Holdings does with Warmfront and whatever security is given over shares in Holdings simply doesn’t affect us.  Kieran Maguire has missed that crucial point.

[overseas baggie]

The chances of finding another Lai are next to zero however not impossible

I only wish that was true, but the charlatans like Kirschner and Bassini will always be sniffing around and there are plenty like them out there, including the Nigerian bloke trying to buy Blades.

[gazberg]

I only wish that was true, but the charlatans like Kirschner and Bassini will always be sniffing around and there are plenty like them out there, including the Nigerian bloke trying to buy Blades.

Plenty of dodgy buggers about for sure but hard to find anyone anyone else willing to invest so much and instantly turn their back

[overseas baggie]

Plenty of dodgy buggers about for sure but hard to find anyone anyone else willing to invest so much and instantly turn their back

He did always say there would be no money injected and that the club would need to be self-sufficient.   What he didn’t say though was that he would take money out !

[Albionic]

I think the interest will definitely be there mate but will Lai be wise enough to cut his losses?

I remember people on here mentioning they worked in China and we all know about their 'save face' culture but what looks worse? Taking a big loss voluntarily or losing control of the club via MSD.

I have got shot down on here before for saying this,but the "face" thing is a legacy much as an English mans word is his bond, This is based on travelling to china extensively (pre covid) and working with the Chinese throughout Asia, Chinese  businesses fail and folks try again (as anywhere else)

[gazberg]

He did always say there would be no money injected and that the club would need to be self-sufficient.   What he didn’t say though was that he would take money out !

100%. His initial statement didn't bother me a jot but his actions following that worried me tremendously!

I have got shot down on here before for saying this,but the "face" thing is a legacy much as an English mans word is his bond, This is based on travelling to china extensively (pre covid) and working with the Chinese throughout Asia, Chinese  businesses fail and folks try again (as anywhere else)

Thanks Albionic, i'm not saying it was you, i genunely can't remember the posters name.

[overseas baggie]

I have got shot down on here before for saying this,but the "face" thing is a legacy much as an English mans word is his bond, This is based on travelling to china extensively (pre covid) and working with the Chinese throughout Asia, Chinese  businesses fail and folks try again (as anywhere else)

It’s far more important to the older Chinese generation than to the younger generation.

[wba_1996]

He did always say there would be no money injected and that the club would need to be self-sufficient.   What he didn’t say though was that he would take money out !

Just doesn't make sense to me. The owners (a large number of faceless Chinese business people, fronted by Lai) put £200m down to buy the club, and then let the value crash down to £50-70m by making a series of useless footballing appointments which has left us as a Championship club with no parachute payments and few sellable assets. All the while using every loophole in the book to take out what? less than £10m from the club?

They must have thought relegation wasn't a possibility when buying the club. And now they're panicking trying to recoup anything they can before a sale. It's the only thing I can come up with. But then it doesn't make sense why they didn't sell to the highest bidder after the Bilic promotion, we were always coming straight back down.

[overseas baggie]

Just doesn't make sense to me. The owners (a large number of faceless Chinese business people, fronted by Lai) put £200m down to buy the club, and then let the value crash down to £50-70m by making a series of useless footballing appointments which has left us as a Championship club with no parachute payments and few sellable assets. All the while using every loophole in the book to take out what? less than £10m from the club?

They must have thought relegation wasn't a possibility when buying the club. And now they're panicking trying to recoup anything they can before a sale. It's the only thing I can come up with. But then it doesn't make sense why they didn't sell to the highest bidder after the Bilic promotion, we were always coming straight back down.

Yes I strongly suspect that the investment was mis-sold to the investors by Lai

[overseas baggie]

If China goes ahead and invades Taiwan shortly, which seems more likely than not, then China will face economic sanctions and that would get very interesting for the ownership of the club.

Mind you, we’d have far more worrying issues than the ownership of the club if it brings WW3 a lot closer.

[Standaman]

Just doesn't make sense to me. The owners (a large number of faceless Chinese business people, fronted by Lai) put £200m down to buy the club, and then let the value crash down to £50-70m by making a series of useless footballing appointments which has left us as a Championship club with no parachute payments and few sellable assets. All the while using every loophole in the book to take out what? less than £10m from the club?

They must have thought relegation wasn't a possibility when buying the club. And now they're panicking trying to recoup anything they can before a sale. It's the only thing I can come up with. But then it doesn't make sense why they didn't sell to the highest bidder after the Bilic promotion, we were always coming straight back down.

There are many layers to this but here are a few thoughts.

1. They paid too much to such an extent that no matter what happened they were never going to recoup their initial investment.

2. Additional funding if it was readily available (it probably never was) was definitely seen as being in the throwing good money after bad category.  Besides which Peace has sold the club on the basis it could pretty run on at break even and maintain Premier League status. Although the personnel and the model that enabled this had been pretty much discarded by the time the club was sold.

3. In China both the political and economic environments turned sour. What the Chinese Government wanted was a successful National team what they got was a bunch of newly enriched champions of Chinese enterprise throwing huge amounts of money at football clubs both home and abroad against the backdrop of a slowing economy. The brakes were very rapidly applied on any future investment and football club ownership is not the political winner many thought it would be quite the contrary.

4. COVID probably killed the prospect of the club being sold when were promoted. Maybe this was a misjudgement on the part of the owners but buyers for a football club were pretty thin on the ground at the height of the pandemic.

It could have been different but it always returns to point 1 they paid way too much. 

We are the unloved child of a short romance between the Chinese mega rich, Chinese soft power and an opportunistic football club owner. Nobody knows what to do with us, least of all the current guardians. 

[skyclad99]

Yes I strongly suspect that the investment was mis-sold to the investors by Lai

I strongly suggest this happened because the investment was mis-sold to Lai by ‘business boy’

We are the victim of two greedy owners sadly

[ex coseley kid]

We are the unloved child of a short romance between the Chinese mega rich, Chinese soft power and an opportunistic football club owner. Nobody knows what to do with us, least of all the current guardians.

Great post, Stan.

[gazberg]

Blues have entered into exclusive negotiations with a potential purchaser.

Wish someone would do the same here