Author Topic: Guochuan Lai  (Read 2369687 times)

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gazberg

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6625 on: January 02, 2021, 10:24:10 PM »
I would not bother getting out check book were down.

Next year we will be financially well off with all the big contracts ending and if we had a half-decent transfer department i'd be positive for the long-term but not with these lot in charge. I fear they will mess it up royally.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6626 on: January 03, 2021, 04:59:43 PM »
Lai (Ken) needs to accept that this season is gone and concentrate on consolidating, we clearly have some capable flair players but need more backbone to compete in the prem.

I'm not a fan of the Noble, Henderson, run all day type of player but they are a necessary evil, many of us relished the Mulumbu / Scharner era and if thats whats required then  the club has to add that type of player to what we already have.

Take the opportunity to clear out the has beens, add some legs / tackling and re-group with a young manager and a 3 year plan,

Lai is not going get his 180-200m this season or next, so he should accept this and build to achieving it year 3 IMO
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6627 on: January 03, 2021, 05:26:42 PM »
Lai (Ken) needs to accept that this season is gone and concentrate on consolidating, we clearly have some capable flair players but need more backbone to compete in the prem.

I'm not a fan of the Noble, Henderson, run all day type of player but they are a necessary evil, many of us relished the Mulumbu / Scharner era and if thats whats required then  the club has to add that type of player to what we already have.

Take the opportunity to clear out the has beens, add some legs / tackling and re-group with a young manager and a 3 year plan,

Lai is not going get his 180-200m this season or next, so he should accept this and build to achieving it year 3 IMO


100% agree, in principle, but we don't know what pressure Lai is under in China.

Simon Chadwick has said recently, that he would be under considerable scrutiny.

It's probably that scrutiny that's made this a pressure pot situation.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6628 on: January 03, 2021, 06:07:04 PM »
100% agree, in principle, but we don't know what pressure Lai is under in China.

I guess he is by no means obliged to put us in the picture but a bit of communication wouldn't half go a long way with the support base.
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baggiejohn

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6629 on: January 03, 2021, 06:34:40 PM »
I guess he is by no means obliged to put us in the picture but a bit of communication wouldn't half go a long way with the support base.

To admit that he's got a problem would be seen as failure, not a great position in Chinese culture.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6630 on: January 03, 2021, 06:43:29 PM »
To admit that he's got a problem would be seen as failure, not a great position in Chinese culture.

Of course; makes sense. Not that it helps us.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6631 on: January 03, 2021, 07:11:59 PM »

100% agree, in principle, but we don't know what pressure Lai is under in China.

Simon Chadwick has said recently, that he would be under considerable scrutiny.

It's probably that scrutiny that's made this a pressure pot situation.



If he’s under massive scrutiny in China if we go down does he asset strip the club and try and make his money back that way?

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6632 on: January 03, 2021, 07:29:50 PM »
If he’s under massive scrutiny in China if we go down does he asset strip the club and try and make his money back that way?

80% of assets are in player registrations, not sure how you asset strip that.

As others have said, all of the solutions are long term.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6633 on: January 03, 2021, 07:30:24 PM »
Can anyone clarify by what they mean when they say ‘asset strip’?

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6634 on: January 03, 2021, 07:53:45 PM »
Can anyone clarify by what they mean when they say ‘asset strip’?

Imagine you're doing a house clearance.

You buy the contents of the house and some might be quite valuable.

Assets are things you can sell to raise cash.

So asset stripping is buying a business & selling it's assets to raise cash.

WBA assets are the buildings & land plus plant & equipment, together with player registrations.

The asset value of the WBAFC business is around £70 million of which around £60 million is player registrations.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6635 on: January 03, 2021, 08:30:46 PM »
80% of assets are in player registrations, not sure how you asset strip that.

As others have said, all of the solutions are long term.

As I’ve said multiple times on these forum pages, he can’t asset strip.  Company law prevents it.  He’s not owed any money (other than potentially £23m that I haven’t got to the bottom of yet, but that won’t go very far in China) so can’t really extract it as debt repayments and dividends can only be paid out of distributable reserves, of which there are hardly any.

The 12% owned by the minority shareholders is important as they all have minority shareholders’ rights and would need to be given ample notice of anything “odd”.

Lai would get far more from selling the club at a big loss than he would get from any attempt to asset strip.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6636 on: January 03, 2021, 08:31:52 PM »
Imagine you're doing a house clearance.

You buy the contents of the house and some might be quite valuable.

Assets are things you can sell to raise cash.

So asset stripping is buying a business & selling it's assets to raise cash.

WBA assets are the buildings & land plus plant & equipment, together with player registrations.

The asset value of the WBAFC business is around £70 million of which around £60 million is player registrations.

Our assets would not outweigh the overall value of the club though so why would Lai do that?

What is left after ‘asset stripping’ would be worth nothing. It’s like selling your windows, doors, etc in your house then leaving a worthless shell when you would be better off just lowering your asking price to get more money overall.

It’s a Nonsense to suggest asset stripping.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 08:50:52 PM by BB74 »

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6637 on: January 03, 2021, 08:34:33 PM »
As I’ve said multiple times on these forum pages, he can’t asset strip.  Company law prevents it.  He’s not owed any money (other than potentially £23m that I haven’t got to the bottom of yet, but that won’t go very far in China) so can’t really extract it as debt repayments and dividends can only be paid out of distributable reserves, of which there are hardly any.

The 12% owned by the minority shareholders is important as they all have minority shareholders’ rights and would need to be given ample notice of anything “odd”.

Lai would get far more from selling the club at a big loss than he would get from any attempt to asset strip.

I knew someone had explained it before hence I asked the question again and to put the asset stripping nonsense to bed.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 08:37:09 PM by BB74 »

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6638 on: January 04, 2021, 04:23:05 PM »
Whoever owns the club must realise we need to be in the premier at the end of this season to get anywhere near the money it was bought for. I think we all agree he is desperate to sell and that is why these desperate measures are no taking place.
It remains to be sen how much he is willing to cough up but I have a feeling he will go for broke.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6639 on: January 04, 2021, 04:55:16 PM »
Our assets would not outweigh the overall value of the club though so why would Lai do that?

What is left after ‘asset stripping’ would be worth nothing. It’s like selling your windows, doors, etc in your house then leaving a worthless shell when you would be better off just lowering your asking price to get more money overall.

It’s a Nonsense to suggest asset stripping.

There's the land often worth more than the buildings in some areas - possibly not B71
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6640 on: January 04, 2021, 07:42:18 PM »
Just listened to the Joe Masi podcast.

He confirmed that we spent £47 million on transfer fees in summer 2020.

Also expects some additions to be in place by the Wolves game.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6641 on: January 04, 2021, 07:51:56 PM »
Just listened to the Joe Masi podcast.

He confirmed that we spent £47 million on transfer fees in summer 2020.

Also expects some additions to be in place by the Wolves game.

Sounds impressive but it’s not. £21m was spent upfront. The remaining £26m is due to clubs over the next five years. We have a guaranteed income of £120m in the next two years from parachute payments.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6642 on: January 04, 2021, 08:09:30 PM »
Sounds impressive but it’s not. £21m was spent upfront. The remaining £26m is due to clubs over the next five years. We have a guaranteed income of £120m in the next two years from parachute payments.

So 120-26 = £94 million of which around £60 million will be for wages (assuming we're relegated).

Leaving £34 million to fund additions to the squad over 2 seasons.

If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

A wise old owl sat in an oak, the more he saw, the less he spoke
The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6643 on: January 04, 2021, 08:46:35 PM »
Lets face it, for our club, a self sustaining model in the premier league is not possible when you get promoted.  The gap between the Championship and EPL is so big you just can't compete without investment above the conservative plan. You have to get into the premier league and stay there for a few years to have a chance of making that a reality. Lai bought us when it should have been possible but i don't think he knew what he was doing and trusted the wrong people. The long term plan of going down and back up is probably the best plan but i don't think Lai is confident in running a club on that plan. i suspect he will sell at a lower price but after he has lost hope of keeping us in the prem.   

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6644 on: January 04, 2021, 09:23:35 PM »
£21m was spent upfront. The remaining £26m is due to clubs over the next five years. We have a guaranteed income of £120m in the next two years from parachute payments.
What will we have coming in, if anything, from players we've (already) sold, do you know? So basically the incoming equivalent of that £26M.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6645 on: January 04, 2021, 09:28:59 PM »
Sounds impressive but it’s not. £21m was spent upfront. The remaining £26m is due to clubs over the next five years. We have a guaranteed income of £120m in the next two years from parachute payments.

It’s still “spent”.  You can only spend the same money once.  The vast majority of transfer fees are “factored” to the likes of Macquarie and paid over 3-4 years, to be paid from future cash flow. 

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6646 on: January 04, 2021, 09:47:31 PM »
What will we have coming in, if anything, from players we've (already) sold, do you know? So basically the incoming equivalent of that £26M.

From accounts to June 2019 (latest accounts)

Amounts owed in more than one year (i.e. future financial years)

Owed to us = £5.4 million

Owed by us = £4.6 million

Net owed to us = £0.8 million
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6647 on: January 04, 2021, 09:57:50 PM »
It’s still “spent”.  You can only spend the same money once.  The vast majority of transfer fees are “factored” to the likes of Macquarie and paid over 3-4 years, to be paid from future cash flow.

From the accounts, we don't appear to factor much of our debts.

Creditor & debtor entries for more than one year are only about 20% of the value of current year.

I understand that accounts for year ending June 2020 don't now need to be submitted until June 2021, so we should see if there's any change in policy then.
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6648 on: January 04, 2021, 10:09:26 PM »
Just listened to the Joe Masi podcast.

He confirmed that we spent £47 million on transfer fees in summer 2020.

Also expects some additions to be in place by the Wolves game.

Grant 15m
Diangana 12m (potentially. rising to £17m)
Kipre £1m
Button £1m
Pereira £8m
Robinson £2m (in addition to Burke)
Krov loan fee
Gallagher loan fee

Forgetting the factoring, you could spin that we did commit to spending approximately £47m, which shocks me a little now I see it written down.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2021, 10:13:50 PM by johnny Cash »

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #6649 on: January 04, 2021, 10:26:25 PM »
If a lender has a charge against the clubs assets or a future income flow then these are registered at Companies House. There seem to be two in place at the moment. One is broad floating charge on pretty much everything current and future in favour of Barclays and I am guessing that is an overdraft (totally standard terms) and the other in favour of MacQuarie Bank specifically relating to the Dawson fee.

I am not sure about how quickly any charge needs to be lodged with companies house but I am guessing it is more timely than the report and accounts.
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