[stoxman]

Hi Stox,
have you read JP's statement?
When i read it I thought there was a certain element of wriggle room in it, in your experience is it likely that a purchaser would push brinkmanship too far, ie the deal collapses and therefore the buyer would have to re-ignite negotiations with a seller?

Also does the removal of exclusivity necessarily mean the deal is stone cold dead, in your opinion of course !

Hi Paulo,

In my opinion, yes the deal would be dead.  A bloke flogging watches in a pub might be able to entice a buyer by pretending to walk out but with a deal of this size I would say it's very unlikely.  Considering the money that both sides will have spent on legal/ audit/ accounting fees to get to this point drafting the Heads, Sale and Purchase Agreement, building the data room, providing all sorts of information, JP would have provided an extension if there was a reasonable chance of a deal.  Think of it like a house sale where you have spent conveyancing fees, had some remedial work done to repair things picked up in the survey etc.  You will only put the house back on the market if you are pretty sure that the buyer isn't going to complete...

With regards to the exclusivity and the unmasking of the buyer, I would say it is unlikely. Both sides have probably signed Non Disclosure Agreements that prevent each other from saying anything.  Also, if I were advising JP, I would strongly advise against unmasking as I see no upside in doing so other than to satisfy supporter curiosity.  JP's next buyer could make contact with the Chinese consortium/ their advisers and get valuable insight that could derail the next purchase.  If your house sale fell through would you tell the next buyers the name of the previous buyer so that they could go and have a chat about the price, the damp or the neighbours....?

Again, all of this is just guess work and we might see the deal back on and the buyers holding blue and white scarves in the E&S tomorrow....

[Albionic]

Hi Paulo,

In my opinion, yes the deal would be dead.  A bloke flogging watches in a pub might be able to entice a buyer by pretending to walk out but with a deal of this size I would say it's very unlikely.  Considering the money that both sides will have spent on legal/ audit/ accounting fees to get to this point drafting the Heads, Sale and Purchase Agreement, building the data room, providing all sorts of information, JP would have provided an extension if there was a reasonable chance of a deal.  Think of it like a house sale where you have spent conveyancing fees, had some remedial work done to repair things picked up in the survey etc.  You will only put the house back on the market if you are pretty sure that the buyer isn't going to complete...

With regards to the exclusivity and the unmasking of the buyer, I would say it is unlikely. Both sides have probably signed Non Disclosure Agreements that prevent each other from saying anything.  Also, if I were advising JP, I would strongly advise against unmasking as I see no upside in doing so other than to satisfy supporter curiosity.  JP's next buyer could make contact with the Chinese consortium/ their advisers and get valuable insight that could derail the next purchase.  If your house sale fell through would you tell the next buyers the name of the previous buyer so that they could go and have a chat about the price, the damp or the neighbours....?

Again, all of this is just guess work and we might see the deal back on and the buyers holding blue and white scarves in the E&S tomorrow....

Great reply as ever, many thanks Stox

(its Daz not Paulo by the way)

[Mr Cynical]

I read a tweet on sons of Albion that they would not commit to team investment. I know we will probably never know but if that's the case then it's good it's dead with these people. I guess this will run and run

The irony...

[overseas baggie]

I trust JP's motives in pulling out of the deal.  He would not have pulled out if either (a) the sale proceeds were guaranteed, or (b) he thought it was in the club's best interests to go ahead.   He is no different from anybody else in selling a business, and we must remember that he only owns 88% of the club.  He has to also consider the best interests of the other 12% shareholders.

It is quite possible that the prospective owners failed the FA's due diligence as "fit and proper persons".   it is also possible that the lawyers unearthed things which really worried them.  That is mere speculation - we are unlikely to ever know, just by the very nature of such scenarios. 

What we do know is that JP was keen to sell, keen enough to enter into exclusivity.  Whatever cropped up, it cropped up late.  Better to find out late in the hour than after the deal.   

He also said that he wanted the deal done by midsummer and did not wish to destabilise the club, so he's hardly going to turn now to his second choice buyer.

It of course leaves the question of what next?  More of the same is hardly the worst option in the interim, as the club is in no trouble at all.  The only area for concern is the potential impact on the transfer dealings.   Is TP going to have to sell Berahino in order to finance the essential purchases, and to rely on getting a major striker in on a loan deal for the season?

[smethwickw]

Hopefully Jeremy will now try and protect his investment by bringing in some quality players. Just think what relegation could do to the clubs value.

[cuckfield1704]

I trust JP's motives in pulling out of the deal.  He would not have pulled out if either (a) the sale proceeds were guaranteed, or (b) he thought it was in the club's best interests to go ahead.   He is no different from anybody else in selling a business, and we must remember that he only owns 88% of the club.  He has to also consider the best interests of the other 12% shareholders.

It is quite possible that the prospective owners failed the FA's due diligence as "fit and proper persons".   it is also possible that the lawyers unearthed things which really worried them.  That is mere speculation - we are unlikely to ever know, just by the very nature of such scenarios. 

What we do know is that JP was keen to sell, keen enough to enter into exclusivity.  Whatever cropped up, it cropped up late.  Better to find out late in the hour than after the deal.   

He also said that he wanted the deal done by midsummer and did not wish to destabilise the club, so he's hardly going to turn now to his second choice buyer.

It of course leaves the question of what next?  More of the same is hardly the worst option in the interim, as the club is in no trouble at all.  The only area for concern is the potential impact on the transfer dealings.   Is TP going to have to sell Berahino in order to finance the essential purchases, and to rely on getting a major striker in on a loan deal for the season?

As is their culture the buyers could also have introduced some late 'bargaining' changes. This will have teed off JP.
Trust has gone and the deal is dead.

[Adamstv]

The only thing that disappoints me, is the number of people quick to jump at an opportunity to slate Jeremy Peace.

Totally agree. I do believe that he was doing it for the right reasons but it's now over, done with , finished - lets now move on to slating him about our transfer policy and lack of signings😒 .some people only see the negatives.
I still have cause for optimism and faith that we will survive !!!!

[Floydy]

As is their culture the buyers could also have introduced some late 'bargaining' changes. This will have teed off JP.
Trust has gone and the deal is dead.

I think this likely. Chinese do their business very differently to Western Europe.

[divinewind]

Perhaps they wanted to pay in instalments? 

[Droitwich Baggie]

Nah!
JP found a chink in their armour. 

[robnewbold]

I think its bloody pathetic to be honest...we drag out the bleeding  obvious, sign bugger all for weeks......we all knew...we all knew...... it would end like this. JOKE,

[PsalmXXIII]

Apparently the potential buyers were looking to pay over a number of years rather than up front. They'd have effectively owned the club before paying for it in full, and so any hopes of those buyers splashing cash was going to be dashed. Nobody here can be disappointed in that considering the future payments would be funded by loans or partially through revenue produced by the club they don't even fully own yet.

Good move Jezza.

[hardtobeat]

Apparently the potential buyers were looking to pay over a number of years rather than up front. They'd have effectively owned the club before paying for it in full, and so any hopes of those buyers splashing cash was going to be dashed. Nobody here can be disappointed in that considering the future payments would be funded by loans or partially through revenue produced by the club they don't even fully own yet.

Good move Jezza.

find it hard to believe it was that simplistic surely method of payment would have been op of the list once a price had been agreed?

[caravanc58]

Apparently the potential buyers were looking to pay over a number of years rather than up front. They'd have effectively owned the club before paying for it in full, and so any hopes of those buyers splashing cash was going to be dashed. Nobody here can be disappointed in that considering the future payments would be funded by loans or partially through revenue produced by the club they don't even fully own yet.

Good move Jezza.

didn't Jeremy  do something similar when he took over at albion.

[divinewind]

Apparently the potential buyers were looking to pay over a number of years rather than up front. They'd have effectively owned the club before paying for it in full, and so any hopes of those buyers splashing cash was going to be dashed. Nobody here can be disappointed in that considering the future payments would be funded by loans or partially through revenue produced by the club they don't even fully own yet.

Good move Jezza.

If hat's the case let's hope they buy the Vile. 

[robnewbold]

Predictable.............and so,so,so,so,so,so pathetic.

[PsalmXXIII]

didn't Jeremy  do something similar when he took over at albion.

Not really as he wasn't buying the club from anyone. He was a shareholder who grew his shares gradually. He hasn't technically owned the club until his share purchases last season. Taking control from the club from within, whilst actually working at the club, setting up academies, running the club day to day for over a decade is much MUCH different than trying to take all those shares in one go and owning the club without paying for it in full. That's like you building a house, adding to it when you have the money, making it nice and homely, then me coming in and saying give me your house I'll give you the money in a bit.

[hertsbaggiebird]

Really not surprised it hasn't gone through , is anyone ? 
We never have much luck and can only dream of an owner with deep pockets who is willing to gamble to make us better.
However, the disappointment and excitement of what 'could have been with the right owners' must be tempered, as many have said, but the slight relief that at least we know what to expect in the near future - more of the same good and bad.

No doubt we will start to get rumblings from Pulis and clashes with Peace as the slowness, risk-adverse and cumbersome transfer policy frustrates and it's doubtful we will get much speculation on 'exciting' signings that even the likes of Swansea, Stoke and Southampton now seem to regularly come up. I feel we have got away with two possible relegations in the past two season despite some appalling transfer business - we really got lucky with Berahino thankfully and the appointment of Pulis was the best business we have done for a number of years now.

Still, you never know, maybe Peace will back the manager and speculate a little for once ?     

[caravanc58]

Not really as he wasn't buying the club from anyone. He was a shareholder who grew his shares gradually. He hasn't technically owned the club until his share purchases last season. Taking control from the club from within, whilst actually working at the club, setting up academies, running the club day to day for over a decade is much MUCH different than trying to take all those shares in one go and owning the club without paying for it in full. That's like you building a house, adding to it when you have the money, making it nice and homely, then me coming in and saying give me your house I'll give you the money in a bit.

If you're interested I've got a nice bungalow in Snowdonia national park with sea views.
will take £35.000 a year payable over a decade.
WARNING: travelling to and from  the Hawthorns gets tedious. oh and there's Welshmen around 

[stoxman]

To say it is predictable is in some ways right. As I have been saying for 6 months, sporting asset sales are incredibly difficult and fall over for all sorts of reasons. One look at the fees involved will give an idea as to how hard they are to land. I am involved in three at the moment. One has a 5.5% fee, the other is 3.5% with a $750k corporate finance fee and the other has a sliding fee from 3.5-6%. All are over $100m in size. People are willing (if not happy) to write a cheque for $5m+ to someone who can land these deals as they are so hard to land.  If these deals were anything like easy or likely the fees would be tiny.  To put it in context, for selling $100m of a quoted company we charge 0.2%. For every $1 we raise for sporting assets, our fee is 30 TIMES higher than for selling shares in regular quoted business.

You have to find the right person (and in my long essay 6 months ago I suggested that there are probably fewer than 300 people out of 7bn that have sufficient wealth to buy Albion (someone with £150m isn't going to spend £150m on Albion anymore than you would spend your entire wealth on a car). Out of those you have to find those who WANT to spend £150m on a football club. Being able to buy and wanting to buy are two different things. There are lots of things I could buy but wouldn't want to. If 10% of people who COULD buy Albion WANT to buy Albion, there are maybe 30 buyers.  That feels about right to me or perhaps a touch too high.  You then have to get to them.  It takes more than just an email to hamadbinjasim@qatar.gov to make an introduction.  You then have to persuade them to buy Albion rather than dozens of other investment opportunities. You can't begin to imagine the ferocious selling that these guys are subject to every single day. Everyone who is building a hotel, developing a residential complex, exploring for oil etc etc etc is pitching them every day, all day. I have sat in majlis waiting to meet UHNWIs and there have been a dozen people from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc just waiting for their 15 mins to pitch their idea.  IF you do get a bite and get to Heads of Terms, there is still a 75% chance it will collapse because of due diligence or just a new shinier opportunity appearing elsewhere.

To say it is predictable is probably fair. To say it is pathetic isn't fair at all. It would be like you organising a family holiday in the UK and then being called pathetic when it rains (which was somewhat predictable). We all know the risks but that shouldn't stop anyone trying.  People who try to develop new medicines, invent things, launch new businesses, start new rock bands know that it is "predictable" that they will probably fail but are the "pathetic" for trying...?

[AlbionBest]

I really would be interested in the other sides view on what went wrong rather than Peace's spin on things - he may of changed the goalposts and wanted more cash ? 
No one will probably ever know what actually went on like some of the fall outs with previous managers but it would be great to get some balanced information.

The excitement has kind of gone a little for our future after this as we could have really established ourselves with the right new owners  - add in the non-existent transfers so far and the slow, slow summer over sponsorships/takeovers/kit launch etc and the win over Chelski seems a long way off and we haven't really built upon the 'Pulis' positivity factor ! 

ALL VERY PREDICTABLE IN THE END !

[GrGr]

I really would be interested in the other sides view on what went wrong rather than Peace's spin on things - he may of changed the goalposts and wanted more cash ? 
No one will probably ever know what actually went on like some of the fall outs with previous managers but it would be great to get some balanced information.

The excitement has kind of gone a little for our future after this as we could have really established ourselves with the right new owners  - add in the non-existent transfers so far and the slow, slow summer over sponsorships/takeovers/kit launch etc and the win over Chelski seems a long way off and we haven't really built upon the 'Pulis' positivity factor ! 

ALL VERY PREDICTABLE IN THE END !

Well, it appears that these guys were not the "right new owners" so what is there to wail about? There are by far worse things than having JP in charge, which the rather large number of clubs that got taken over by the "wrong" owners can attest to. We probably dodged a bullet this time.

[Mr Cynical]

Not really as he wasn't buying the club from anyone. He was a shareholder who grew his shares gradually. He hasn't technically owned the club until his share purchases last season. Taking control from the club from within, whilst actually working at the club, setting up academies, running the club day to day for over a decade is much MUCH different than trying to take all those shares in one go and owning the club without paying for it in full.

Come on.  Don't make him out to be a saint.  He's a clever business man.

You missed out the share issues bit (x2) where the club borrowed the money from the bank to buy his shares and the club paid the money back.  Let alone valuing the club at £12.6m just 6 years ago when 'rationalising' the shareholder base.

We all know that money is what JP's interested in.  He has grown the club, invested in infrastructure and improved every aspect of the club in the last 13 years.  But this is a side affect of him growing his asset to be worth the maximum amount possible.

When he bought into the club his personal worth was in the region of £3m.  Over 13 years he has paid himself over £10m and has grown his asset, that he wants to sell for £150m.  And WBAFC have done quite well too. 

If you want to admire people that make money then fine, but I support WBAFC.  There are times when JP has held us back and there are times that the stable platform that his fiscal policies have provided have worked very well for the club. 

Someone started a thread recently called something along the line of 'dare to dream'.  Having read that thread (and plenty more besides) many West Brom fans don't dare to dream and are happy to doff their cap to the owner and be thankful for what they're given.

Where would WBAFC be if JP had operated the finances of the club in exactly the same way - except with in an open and welcoming way?  Has the share skullduggery made any difference to the path of WBAFC (i.e. JP runs the club in the same way, but doesn't mess around with shares)?  What difference does it make to be open and straight-forward with sharing financial information rather than running a closed book?  How much higher esteem would he be held in if he did this and had paid respect to the club's history and traditions (before the last 12 months).  I'd say that we'd have a significantly less divided club and the only other difference is that JP wouldn't have such a well packaged asset (i.e. concentrated the shares into his own possession)... and it doesn't look like he's selling anyhow.

I'm pleased that JP isn't selling if the potential buyers weren't straight up sports investors with money to spend.  If they were speculating and don't have the cash to grow their asset then they are no better than sticking with the devil we all know.  If we are looking for the right buyer based on them investing you'd have thought that we'd have been investigating and vetting potential buyers during the early due diligence - i.e. before the exclusivity period.

[newbaggie]

I thought something would crop up to scupper this deal. It went on for too long, but I am glad that the club was not sold to venky's type buyers.Hopefully JP will find someone else and in the meantime loosen the purse strings. 

[divinewind]

That is a top post Mr Cynical and sums up the way i feel about him too.
Like you i support WBA not Jeremy Peace.