[Adder]

I can see the logic behind it, but is flawed.
The only way to control the virus is by lifestyle change, complete lockdown is like going on a diet for two weeks, yes, you will slowly lose weight for a fortnight, but once you finish the diet, the weight will go straight back on again.

I'm afraid we've had plenty of evidence that there are too many people unwilling to make the necessary lifestyle changes and any restrictions are met with similar protests to those seen with this essential items ruling.

[boinging_along]

Remember when Whitty was derided for saying we could ne seeing 200 deaths a day by mid-Nov? Not even end of October and we are averaging more than 200 a day for the last week. 367 today.  Whitty was too optimistic.

[kc56wba]

Remember when Whitty was derided for saying we could ne seeing 200 deaths a day by mid-Nov? Not even end of October and we are averaging more than 200 a day for the last week. 367 today.  Whitty was too optimistic.

This is getting very scary again

[gazberg]

Remember when Whitty was derided for saying we could ne seeing 200 deaths a day by mid-Nov? Not even end of October and we are averaging more than 200 a day for the last week. 367 today.  Whitty was too optimistic.

They are attributing most pneumonia/flu deaths to Covid19 now as well. That is scary. What do they want with this misrepresentstion I wonder??

ONS confirmed no noticeable rise in deaths compared to thus time last year just nature doing its thing at its usual pace.

[boinging_along]

ONS reports that excess deaths are nearly 7% above the 5 year average and that's nearly 2 week old data.   Not sure where you get the ONS have said excess deaths is normal for this time if year.

They are also not attributing "most" pneumonia/flu deaths to covid either.  If someone has both down on the certificate it gets registered as a covid death as pneumonia can occur as a result of covid.  If someone has not tested positive for covid and they die from flu then they are not reported as a covid death.

Either way, it doesn't matter what they're recorded of if you look at excess deaths.  Which, as I said, the ONS have it as 7% higher than the 5 year average with old data.

[gazberg]

Not doubting you but have you got a limo to that tee pet saying deaths are nearly 10% up.

I'm away so on my phone only and it's a nightmare searching endlessly. Last week they said no excess.

[tuamigos]

Remember when Whitty was derided for saying we could ne seeing 200 deaths a day by mid-Nov? Not even end of October and we are averaging more than 200 a day for the last week. 367 today.  Whitty was too optimistic.

And yet it's still too much trouble for some people to simply wear a mask.
It's proven that the virus is transmitted by droplets. Isn't is obvious to most sceptics that if you can stop/reduce the spread of droplets you reduce the spread of the virus?
I despair with the human species sometimes I really do.

[boinging_along]

Not doubting you but have you got a limo to that tee pet saying deaths are nearly 10% up.

I'm away so on my phone only and it's a nightmare searching endlessly. Last week they said no excess.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

6.8% for the week ending 16th Oct.

[Albionic]

here is the link to latest data, I haven't had a good look at it yet !  Latest figures are upto w/c 18 sept

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12372weeklyprovisionalexcessdeaths2020forregionsinenglandandwalesandpopulationsofregionsinenglandandukcountries2015to2020

I very quickly put this together, whilst not great, its not as alarming as I expected to see. But a month out of date admittedly.

[gazberg]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

6.8% for the week ending 16th Oct.

Thank you both for the info. Will have a look after dinner. Also thanks for understanding that awful auto correct my phone did!

[gazberg]

Had a read. Ons says respiratory issues are the biggest causes of excess deaths in the winter every year.

Sounds like the vulnerable need to tuck themselves away unless essential and keep contact to a bare bare minimum. Again I don't think there should be legal enforcement of this. If they want to go out and mingle they should be free too.

[Droitwich Baggie]

Germany to go in for a 4 week lockdown, from 2nd November.

[Albionic]

Spoke to Belgian colleague this morning and he described the current situation there as similar to the spring spike at its peak, BUT the incidence is not showing any sign of slowing currently. His opinion is that their government is tinkering with the peripheral causes and not addressing the big issues.
Seems the issues we are facing in the UK are not exclusive to us

[kc56wba]

UK Covid cases jump by nearly 25,000 as deaths up by 310
The UK has recorded a further 310 coronavirus-related deaths and another 24,701 people have tested positive for the virus, latest government data shows.

On Tuesday, 367 new deaths were recorded across the country – the highest daily number since May.

Should we follow Germany's stance on a four week lockdown?

[kc56wba]

France declare National Lockdown for at least the whole of November. Will we follow or wait as we did last time?

[Albionic]

If we follow a similar trajectory to last time, which the graph attached suggests we are, we will be in serious mire in 10 days time.
Lockdown is imminent, its nigh on inevitable.

[TheJacko2000]

If we follow a similar trajectory to last time, which the graph attached suggests we are, we will be in serious mire in 10 days time.
Lockdown is imminent, its nigh on inevitable.

How does that graph suggest we're on a similar trajectory? (Answer: it doesn't)

[Albionic]

How does that graph suggest we're on a similar trajectory? (Answer: it doesn't)

The standard deviation over last 10 days has risen at almost exactly the same rate as in the period 22nd march to april 1st, hence it does.

[Droitwich Baggie]

I feel that economically we can't afford it, but to save lives and distress, surely we should have a national lockdown.
We would all know where we are, rather than have tiers.
This is the dilemma the governments have (plural because all countries' have the same problem).

[royhan]

It will be interesting to see how the 17 day lockdown in Wales pans out

[BB74]

Let’s have a full lock down again shall we so we can save old Granny Edna who only has six months to live anyway.

[Droitwich Baggie]

Let’s have a full lock down again shall we so we can save old Granny Edna who only has six months to live anyway.

Ooh. You tart! But I guess she still luvs ya.

[tuamigos]

Let’s have a full lock down again shall we so we can save old Granny Edna who only has six months to live anyway.

So what gives you the right to shorten your Granny's life span prematurely?

[BB74]

So what gives you the right to shorten your Granny's life span prematurely?

I’m sure Granny would say ‘I’ve lived a good long life, let those who potentially have a life ahead of them (cancer and mental health patients) take priority now’.

[Albionic]

And let’s off uncle BB74 as well, while we’re at it