[BoingFlyer]

I have zero faith in the UK population being able to maintain 2 meter social distancing as lock down is lifted. Including the 3 OAP neighbours stood outside my house having a good catch up 

[baggiejohn]

My thoughts to. Without the app I dont see as the system can work for people have been abiding by the lockdown restrictions

As I recall, the Irish Republic claimed that they had beaten the virus on the street, infections were coming from within households.
As others have said, the app would be helpful, for identifying interfaces between strangers,
for example on public transport as boinging-along identified.
In households & workplaces the interfaces would be known.

[TheJacko2000]

I have zero faith in the UK population being able to maintain 2 meter social distancing as lock down is lifted. Including the 3 OAP neighbours stood outside my house having a good catch up 

It's not that people can't, imo they don't want to, a lot of people also have no grasp of what 2m actually is.

[OldburyWBA]

If Covid is on the death certificate wouldn't it be a contributing factor towards the person death,  if the person had for instance kidney failure bought on by them catching Covid - 19, wouldnt it state both kidney failure and Covid was the cause of death?

Again its something we will never know as postmortems are not being held. I do know of someone who I will not name as its their business where someone was tested negative, died the following day and it was down as covid-19 on the death certificate, not hearsay, actual fact which begs the question of how many more does this apply to?

I also read a report which I will try to find but was at least a week or so ago now so doubtful where they did postmortems in Italy and it turned out not to be the actual virus that killed them. EDIT - Kev can't find the report so due to that its just hearsay until a time when I can find it, I have asked someone if they can remember where it was.

[baggiejohn]

I have zero faith in the UK population being able to maintain 2 meter social distancing as lock down is lifted. Including the 3 OAP neighbours stood outside my house having a good catch up 

I share your opinion, the tone of messages now suggest it's all over.

[OldburyWBA]

I share your opinion, the tone of messages now suggest it's all over.

For some it never started as some have not socially distanced from the very start.

[TheJacko2000]

We will know how many the virus and fallout from the virus (economical and social) has taken but not for a couple of years. There will be an age adjusted excess deaths algorithm based on how many lost their lives in 2020 compared to previous years. This will be used for all countries that register all their deaths.

The numbers floated around at the minute serve only to try and show the public that the virus is a serious threat. (and as a political tool, but I won't get into that)

[baggiejohn]

Again its something we will never know as postmortems are not being held. I do know of someone who I will not name as its their business where someone was tested negative, died the following day and it was down as covid-19 on the death certificate, not hearsay, actual fact which begs the question of how many more does this apply to?

I also read a report which I will try to find but was at least a week or so ago now so doubtful where they did postmortems in Italy and it turned out not to be the actual virus that killed them.

The ONS figures are based on two definitions:

1 - Death where covid19 is shown on the death certificate - suspected

2 - Death where covid19 is confirmed by a test - may have been a contributory factor

In any event, there have been a significant amount of excess deaths which will have to be investigated.

[OldburyWBA]

The ONS figures are based on two definitions:

1 - Death where covid19 is shown on the death certificate - suspected

2 - Death where covid19 is confirmed by a test - may have been a contributory factor

In any event, there have been a significant amount of excess deaths which will have to be investigated.

I know what they are based on but they are flawed given the one example I have provided which again is not hearsay but fact.

The last part I agree but we will never know the actual true figures, the one fact that is sadly not given much coverage is the number of recovered cases which suggests those who died have done so for other reasons in which this virus MAY have played a part similar to how other factors can contribute to other deaths.

[boinging_along]

Again its something we will never know as postmortems are not being held. I do know of someone who I will not name as its their business where someone was tested negative, died the following day and it was down as covid-19 on the death certificate, not hearsay, actual fact which begs the question of how many more does this apply to?

I also read a report which I will try to find but was at least a week or so ago now so doubtful where they did postmortems in Italy and it turned out not to be the actual virus that killed them. EDIT - Kev can't find the report so due to that its just hearsay until a time when I can find it, I have asked someone if they can remember where it was.

But there's also complaints about people not having covid put down on their death certificate because of the amount of paper work involved or that they'd not been tested early on. 

We can see there's a massive amount of excess deaths - and even if it's not directly the cause of death - surely it's still part of the whole pandemic if they'd have survived any other time, like if they'd had an earlier cancer diagnosis or something?

Even if you ignore the number of deaths attributed to covid - look at the excess deaths.

[OldburyWBA]

But there's also complaints about people not having covid put down on their death certificate because of the amount of paper work involved or that they'd not been tested early on. 

We can see there's a massive amount of excess deaths - and even if it's not directly the cause of death - surely it's still part of the whole pandemic if they'd have survived any other time, like if they'd had an earlier cancer diagnosis or something?

Even if you ignore the number of deaths attributed to covid - look at the excess deaths.

I'm ignoring nothing, i'm just pointing out we will never know the true totals both in the UK or other countries around the world, yes there are excess deaths which I have not denied and are obviously part of it but a lot of factors are at play and the actual numbers will never be know no matter how we go about it.

[baggiejohn]

I know what they are based on but they are flawed given the one example I have provided which again is not hearsay but fact.

The last part I agree but we will never know the actual true figures, the one fact that is sadly not given much coverage is the number of recovered cases which suggests those who died have done so for other reasons in which this virus MAY have played a part similar to how other factors can contribute to other deaths.

The data is not flawed, it's accurate against the definition.

It's not often, but this time I agree with Jacko, it's a series of data sets to demonstrate a political point, exactly the same as a set of data to show recovery would be.

The only data that scientists need is age corrected excess deaths, & then drill down to investigate causes.

[OldburyWBA]

The data is not flawed, it's accurate against the definition.

It's not often, but this time I agree with Jacko, it's a series of data sets to demonstrate a political point, exactly the same as a set of data to show recovery would be.

The only data that scientists need is age corrected excess deaths, & then drill down to investigate causes.

The definition is not 100% accurate of all deaths as we just don't know no matter how you dress it up.

[kc56wba]

324 deaths in all settings. R.I.P.

[baggiejohn]

The definition is not 100% accurate of all deaths as we just don't know no matter how you dress it up.

Sorry Oldbury, but it is accurate against the definition for data collection purposes.

What does carry some doubt is instances where covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate.

As others have said, these two definitions were only introduced following pressure from the press.

Scientists will analyse the age adjusted excess death data to help to understand the pandemic

[OldburyWBA]

Sorry Oldbury, but it is accurate against the definition for data collection purposes.

What does carry some doubt is instances where covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate.

As others have said, these two definitions were only introduced following pressure from the press.

Scientists will analyse the age adjusted excess death data to help to understand the pandemic

Exactly, which is more or less what I am saying in a round about way, there is doubt.

The press have a lot to answer for but thats for elsewhere.

[The Black Pearl]

For some it never started as some have not socially distanced from the very start.

I think the government always knew, any lockdown was limited by various factors, up most being patience, personal discipline and conformity, it was always mostly about educating the masses knowing the true lockdown was a finite tool.

[OldburyWBA]

I think the government always knew, any lockdown was limited by various factors, up most being patience, personal discipline and conformity, it was always mostly about educating the masses knowing the true lockdown was a finite tool.

I agree, there was and still is a risk that some would see a full lockdown as a challenge and would never stick to it regardless of the fines etc imposed.

[hardtobeat]

Part of the problem as the lack of definite rules they always used such word as advise , suggest etc which were of no help to the Police. Then our fines were nowhere near heavy enough toad as deterrent. In Span for example it was around a grand for breaking basic rules. Then we had the do gooders moaning when the police used the drone  to help enforce lockdown , police must have been asking themselves  if it was all worthwhile . Put these on top the couldn’t locate less brigade and it becomes a toxic mix !

[Hunnington Baggie]

Monkeys have stolen samples of COVID-19 in India after mobbing a health worker. Could potentially see a spike there.

[kc56wba]

Just come back from my walk with the dog and there are more people and cars than since this rubbish started.  Lockdown is finished now and I hope I am wrong but can see the 'R' number going above 1 cause people haven't got the measure of what keeping 2 meters apart means.

[hardtobeat]

Just come back from my walk with the dog and there are more people and cars than since this rubbish started.  Lockdown is finished now and I hope I am wrong but can see the 'R' number going above 1 cause people haven't got the measure of what keeping 2 meters apart means.

I think it’s about more than that. People have been ok for weeks with social distancing on the whole so what’s changed?

[kc56wba]

I think it’s about more than that. People have been ok for weeks with social distancing on the whole so what’s changed?

I daren't answer that. 

[OldburyWBA]

I daren't answer that. 

Good move 

[baggiejohn]

Just come back from my walk with the dog and there are more people and cars than since this rubbish started.  Lockdown is finished now and I hope I am wrong but can see the 'R' number going above 1 cause people haven't got the measure of what keeping 2 meters apart means.

For what it's worth, I don't think the R number will shift much.

Not long ago Patrick Valance said that the scientific community didn't really know if the virus was influenced by weather conditions. He went on to say previous coronavirus strains were weather dependent, & it may be this one will follow that pattern.

If PV's assumption is correct, then we can expect a lull in infections until around end October/begining of November.

It then becomes a problem when the public, & perhaps the politicians get lulled into a false sense of security, as happened in 1918.

It might be all over, but on the other hand, it could be the worst is yet to come.