Author Topic: Guochuan Lai  (Read 2560642 times)

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Albionic

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7350 on: September 01, 2021, 09:27:55 AM »
Why do the club have to spend money just to suit you mate?
 We are top of the league
We have good players with an interesting manager who has a plan
As I've said before we can almost balance our books now, ready for promotion
How good is that?

You and those rose tinted glasses again !??  Tut tut !

No-one is so naive to suggest that better players has no impact, BUT, there are other factors at play and all thats being suggested is, don't put all the eggs in one basket, because if it goes wrong you may no longer have a basket. 
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
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baggiejohn

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7351 on: September 01, 2021, 10:01:05 AM »
There's still work to do of course, like I said, it's no guarantee, better managers\coaching staff\medical teams will all increase your chance of winning (and the big clubs with the best facilities are again spending more on those very things).  But look at what City, Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, etc all spend, now compare that to the teams who have just come up.  If the "spend more, get more" wasn't true then the Premier League would be a free for all every season and not just the same few teams at the top.  Apart from Leicester (which was shocked the footballing world it was so unlikely) you've got to go back to 1995 for a non current "big club" to have won the league when Blackburn did it, 26 years ago.  And then you've got Leeds in 92, a massive run of Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton and then back to 81 when Villa won it.  Football was very different 40 years ago.

Or look at the FA Cup, even in a competition that has a knock out element to it (and so luck of the draw plays a part), and it's possible that in a one off match a lower division team can sink a higher one, since Wimbledon's "Crazy Gang" won it in the mid 80's, there's been Everton, Portsmouth and Wigan that have won it, that's it. 

Put it this way as an extreme example.  Build a team of players worth £1m, and now build a team of players worth £100m and pit them against each other.  Who do you think would win?

I realise that some of us want to see the club through rose tinted lenses, but we've got to be realistic, by relying on nominal fees and loans we're making promotion a much bigger challenge than we need to.  I refuse to believe that with the parachute payments, player sales, gate receipts being back, tv money, wage bill reductions that we're broke as a club and will be out spent by other championship teams.


Sorry, but that's a really one dimensional view of things, all you have considered is transfer fees.

Transfer fees are not a good metric to measure the quality of a player, wages are a better metric, but you've chosen to ignore that.

I doubt very much that our ex-EPL players or EPL loanees are on much less than £30k per week. As others have said, I believe our wages bill will be around £40 million.

A poster, this morning, pointed out that, due to a reduction in media revenue last year, our parachute payments are likely to be reduced to around £34 million. In other words the parachute payments are unlikely to cover the wages.

Then we have the £23 million loss that we made in season 2019/20, which has to be serviced somehow.
I suspect our income last season would also have struggled to cover our expenditure, especially when we had to pay compensation for Bilic, & I can't imagine Big Sam & his entourage would have come cheap.
Which means that the loss will have been compounded.
If the owner can't or won't put any cash into the club that loss has to be self funded from the football club, either the profit and loss account, or through player sales, or more likely both.

The BBC have listed all of the final days transactions & by far the majority were frees & loans.

Personally, I think we've done OK
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

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boinging_along

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7352 on: September 02, 2021, 07:28:31 PM »

Sorry, but that's a really one dimensional view of things, all you have considered is transfer fees.

Transfer fees are not a good metric to measure the quality of a player, wages are a better metric, but you've chosen to ignore that.

I doubt very much that our ex-EPL players or EPL loanees are on much less than £30k per week. As others have said, I believe our wages bill will be around £40 million.

A poster, this morning, pointed out that, due to a reduction in media revenue last year, our parachute payments are likely to be reduced to around £34 million. In other words the parachute payments are unlikely to cover the wages.

Then we have the £23 million loss that we made in season 2019/20, which has to be serviced somehow.
I suspect our income last season would also have struggled to cover our expenditure, especially when we had to pay compensation for Bilic, & I can't imagine Big Sam & his entourage would have come cheap.
Which means that the loss will have been compounded.
If the owner can't or won't put any cash into the club that loss has to be self funded from the football club, either the profit and loss account, or through player sales, or more likely both.

The BBC have listed all of the final days transactions & by far the majority were frees & loans.

Personally, I think we've done OK

Firstly, I didn't say that only transfer fees are the sign of a quality player.  Wages are another metric but again aren't perfect and probably have more variance.  You still get players past their peak on high wages and you get brilliant young players on not a lot.  My point is simply that the more you spend on players the better they tend to be.  It's undeniable, why are clubs spending lots of money on players if the alternative was to be able to spend nothing and get the same quality?

As for the rest of your post, it's a matter of opinion.  I can see we are well short in some positions and still having to rely on players like Bartley as first choice doesn't fill you with confidence. 

Regarding finances, if you're right then I guess we are an incredibly poorly run club then?  To end up with parachute payments, player sales, massive reductions in wage bill and not having anything to spend is not the sign of a financially well run club.  So the issues still lie at the chairman's door.


liverbaggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7353 on: September 05, 2021, 01:16:56 PM »
I would say that due to the brilliant way we have accrued good quality for our system players, without the cost of transfer fees, maybe a smallish amount of signing on fees, is an intelligent and business like way of doing things in the current climate.
If we need a new player at Christmas we can get one
We may even break even by year end and if sorry when we win this league and get promoted we start with a clean slate of relatively or no debt and no overdraft
Some on here want to spend big and borrow, perhaps that how they run their own finances, but I dont like it

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7354 on: September 06, 2021, 11:33:20 AM »
We may even break even by year end and if sorry when we win this league and get promoted we start with a clean slate of relatively or no debt and no overdraft
How many players do you think we'll need to sign at that point to stand a chance of staying up?

liverbaggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7355 on: September 06, 2021, 12:36:39 PM »
1

baggie82

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7356 on: September 06, 2021, 03:52:39 PM »
How many players do you think we'll need to sign at that point to stand a chance of staying up?

15 probably....hence why it was short sighted to either not invest big time last summer or go the other way, do a Norwich and accept it was too big a job and keep as much money as possible for the next cycle. Worst of all, we have given away our only quality premier league player; that we cannot afford to replace and is irreplaceable. If we get promoted this season and apply the same conservative accounting then we are 110% guaranteed to get relegated, it won't even be close.

overseas baggie

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7357 on: September 06, 2021, 06:49:49 PM »
15 probably....hence why it was short sighted to either not invest big time last summer or go the other way, do a Norwich and accept it was too big a job and keep as much money as possible for the next cycle. Worst of all, we have given away our only quality premier league player; that we cannot afford to replace and is irreplaceable. If we get promoted this season and apply the same conservative accounting then we are 110% guaranteed to get relegated, it won't even be close.

That all merely highlights the gulf between the two divisions.  No promoted teams is likely to stay up without very sizeable investment. Yes, a team like Sheffield United might have a remarkable first season but it's unsustainable.  We have to just enjoy the ride or bank on a new owner.
Is

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7358 on: September 06, 2021, 07:13:05 PM »
I would say that due to the brilliant way we have accrued good quality for our system players, without the cost of transfer fees, maybe a smallish amount of signing on fees, is an intelligent and business like way of doing things in the current climate.
If we need a new player at Christmas we can get one
We may even break even by year end and if sorry when we win this league and get promoted we start with a clean slate of relatively or no debt and no overdraft
Some on here want to spend big and borrow, perhaps that how they run their own finances, but I dont like it

Unfortunately thats not how football is operating now.  I wish it was back to the 70's and 80's when good sides could be built on a shoestring and then challenge for major trophies. But now its all about spending stupid money. Look at how much Villa have spent over the last two seasons and what have they achieved mid table at best. Yes they have just had a cash windfall from the sale of Grealish but we couldn't even get a good deal for the sale of Pereira.

I'm afraid if you want to compete in the greedy premier league you have got to spend mega big. Its no good being a good championship side and its no good being a yoyo club either.  In fact i get bored of us being promoted because I have seen us promoted so many times and then just know we will struggle and get relegated the next season.

baggie82

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7359 on: September 06, 2021, 07:34:00 PM »
That all merely highlights the gulf between the two divisions.  No promoted teams is likely to stay up without very sizeable investment. Yes, a team like Sheffield United might have a remarkable first season but it's unsustainable.  We have to just enjoy the ride or bank on a new owner.
Is

No it's about being smart with your income, and judging when to push go. The board look at the income for one season and decide what they can spend. They should be looking at the income over three years, based on premiership and parachute money and then deciding when to invest it properly to get the side up a premiership standard. Just as you buy a house - you don't pay for it in 12 months.

The loan fees for Okay, Diagne, ANM, the pay off for Bilic, the large sums paid to Allardyce, the £2m it cost to get Ismael in, the money spent on Grant (£15m) - that's probably the best part of £25m we have spent on a variety of short term decisions, over the last year.

Last summer the board should either have decided to spend this years parachute money on top of the budget or just accepted we couldn't compete and keep back the £30m odd we spent for the longer term and kept the group together. Instead we choose the middle option of committing to a budget that was never going to be enough and turning over the management and playing staff several times - which all leads to loads of money wasted.

If we are lucky enough to get promoted we shall be in a weaker position next summer, as no Pereira but hopefully the promoted teams won't be as good as Leeds and the bottom six will not be as strong as last year. However, it may be the case that we have no chance of competing and the board recognise that rather than giving the manager another £30m, expecting miracles and then sacking him. Only to then panic and throw more money at it in January.

Essentially what we need to do next time when / if we go up is the exact opposite of what we did last year which failed miserably. Spend next to nothing or roll the dice. Don't take a middle ground and waste the TV money with an unrealistic effort that is not funded properly.

baggiemart

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7360 on: September 06, 2021, 08:03:40 PM »
No it's about being smart with your income, and judging when to push go. The board look at the income for one season and decide what they can spend. They should be looking at the income over three years, based on premiership and parachute money and then deciding when to invest it properly to get the side up a premiership standard. Just as you buy a house - you don't pay for it in 12 months.

The loan fees for Okay, Diagne, ANM, the pay off for Bilic, the large sums paid to Allardyce, the £2m it cost to get Ismael in, the money spent on Grant (£15m) - that's probably the best part of £25m we have spent on a variety of short term decisions, over the last year.

Last summer the board should either have decided to spend this years parachute money on top of the budget or just accepted we couldn't compete and keep back the £30m odd we spent for the longer term and kept the group together. Instead we choose the middle option of committing to a budget that was never going to be enough and turning over the management and playing staff several times - which all leads to loads of money wasted.

If we are lucky enough to get promoted we shall be in a weaker position next summer, as no Pereira but hopefully the promoted teams won't be as good as Leeds and the bottom six will not be as strong as last year. However, it may be the case that we have no chance of competing and the board recognise that rather than giving the manager another £30m, expecting miracles and then sacking him. Only to then panic and throw more money at it in January.

Essentially what we need to do next time when / if we go up is the exact opposite of what we did last year which failed miserably. Spend next to nothing or roll the dice. Don't take a middle ground and waste the TV money with an unrealistic effort that is not funded properly.

If we do get promoted we will need at least 5 or 6 players just to compete. 5 or 6 decent premier standard players will cost about 90 million, thats 15 million per player and we paid 18 million for Diangana and Grant so saying we get a decent player for 15 million is being a bit conservative. Then you have to sell the expectation of what the club will achieve to that player and that is the hardest thing.

I'm afraid we missed our chance to compete at the top level. when we became established for those 7 or 8 years in the premiership we should have pushed on then and invested in new younger players instead of relying on loans and allowing the established players to get past their best.

I can't see us competing at premier level again until we have an owner who is prepared to throw at least 100 million at the club every season. Unfortunately I can't see that happening.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7361 on: September 20, 2021, 06:49:40 PM »
property market is under pressure in China, one huge company is in deep trouble. If Lai makes his money on real estate this might be a problem, assuming he actually is the owner.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7362 on: September 20, 2021, 06:57:25 PM »
property market is under pressure in China, one huge company is in deep trouble. If Lai makes his money on real estate this might be a problem, assuming he actually is the owner.

Evergrande group are in big trouble. Could be the start of another recession but that's pretty much odds on anyway.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7363 on: September 20, 2021, 07:14:08 PM »
Wow !! Evergrande are humongous in the south east around Shenzhen / Guangdong ……
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7364 on: September 20, 2021, 08:59:49 PM »
We could always send him a note asking if he’s ok 😂
laiguochuan9@gmail.com

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7365 on: September 25, 2021, 09:25:54 AM »
He's indirectly exposed to the Chinese property sector....his main activity is large scale landscaping

Equally big problem for us is policy...relations between China and us were already prickly and have taken a massive downstep 2 weeks ago when we joined usa and Australia in a military alliance to maintain freedom of south China Sea....NO WAY  Lai will be able to send a single penny to England to propose up a vanity project.......wolves might find same thing with fosun

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7366 on: September 25, 2021, 05:32:55 PM »
He's indirectly exposed to the Chinese property sector....his main activity is large scale landscaping

Equally big problem for us is policy...relations between China and us were already prickly and have taken a massive downstep 2 weeks ago when we joined usa and Australia in a military alliance to maintain freedom of south China Sea....NO WAY  Lai will be able to send a single penny to England to propose up a vanity project.......wolves might find same thing with fosun

Lai doesn't have any money to send, Peace managed to sell the club to the only Chinese businessman who isn't loaded.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7367 on: October 07, 2021, 12:50:51 PM »
There are some quite interesting comments this morning on twitter from Simon Chadwick about the acquisition of Newcastle by the Saudi PIF. (@Prof_Chadwiick).

Simon has always claimed that European football club acquisitions by Chinese & Middle Eastern interests have had a political element.

If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

A wise old owl sat in an oak, the more he saw, the less he spoke
The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7368 on: October 07, 2021, 02:12:27 PM »
There are some quite interesting comments this morning on twitter from Simon Chadwick about the acquisition of Newcastle by the Saudi PIF. (@Prof_Chadwiick).

Simon has always claimed that European football club acquisitions by Chinese & Middle Eastern interests have had a political element.
there was a reason nearly all the Birmingham regional teams were picked up by Chinese buyers at roughly the same time, EVERYTHING China does is political.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7369 on: October 07, 2021, 02:18:27 PM »
Land bridge (belt and road project), end of the line = west mids !

https://merics.org/en/tracker/mapping-belt-and-road-initiative-where-we-stand
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7370 on: October 07, 2021, 03:13:29 PM »
that big new train line for the country might have something to do with it

Gilsey 56

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7371 on: October 07, 2021, 08:36:27 PM »
What an owner it looks like Newcastle are getting and we end up with Scrooge, well done to that man Peace, done us proud.
In the beginning there was light.......Followed by the king Jeff Astle.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7372 on: October 14, 2021, 02:25:23 PM »
Why do people go on and on about Lai not putting money into the club.

Its not about money but about good management. Peace didn't put any money in and we had several seasons in the Prem.

I'd sooner have an owner who looks to live within the club's means than a Mel Morris who put £200m into Derby and where did it get them?


tex

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7373 on: October 14, 2021, 05:59:43 PM »
is there no middle ground between Mel Morris and Jeremy Peace? lets not forget that he sold the club for 200million to someone who was going to take us to the next level.

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Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7374 on: October 21, 2021, 11:07:29 AM »
We can talk about sacking managers but this guy is still the massive problem. The talk of a takeover has gone really quiet. I guess the £200 million asking price is a stumbling block.
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