[ttree30]

We’ve now equalled last season’s points total (66) with 8 games to play and must be getting close to the finishing line for a top 6 spot.

How many points do you think we’ll need?

The average for 6th place runs at around 73, but over the years it’s been as low as 68 and as high as 80.

Coventry’s win at Wo1ve5 may also help - I think The Sky Blues are a dangerous outfit, and the FA Cup SF distraction may not be good for them.

Obviously we’ll be looking for other things such as a decent run with injuries and some good form to give us momentum, but I’m guessing a point a game from here would get us over the line for the play offs?

[Albertbaggie]

Hull and Coventry have to play each other still so that's at least one of them that can't get maximum points from their last 9 games.
Hull still have leeds away and ipswich at home too so having that cushion over them already is massive

[hardtobeat]

Anything over 75pts should see anybody into the play offs !

[gazberg]

3 wins from 8 will do us.

Average position of teams we have left to play is like 14.56.

Only ourselves to blame from here but I'm confident it won't come to that

[WBArgo]

3 wins from 8 will do us.

Average position of teams we have left to play is like 14.56.

Only ourselves to blame from here but I'm confident it won't come to that

Agree. Since Johnston has come in we've looked like a different beast. With that said I'm sure there will be more twists and turns.

[KnaveofAlbion]

Assuming we have a better goal difference than the chasers, which we currently do. I’d be confident with 76 and 99% certain with 78.

Coventry and Hull still concern me greatly.

[Standaman]

There are 5 teams chasing 2 places with the following  fixtures


WBA Millwall (A) Watford (H) Stoke (A)Rotherham (H) Sunderland (H) Leicester (A) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Preston   (H)

Norwich Plymouth (H) Leicester (A) Ipswich (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Preston (A) Bristol City (H) Swansea (H) Birmingham (A)

HullStoke (H) Leeds (A) Cardiff (A) Middlesbrough(H) Queens Park Rangers (H) Watford (A) Coventry (A) Ipswich (H)  Plymouth (A)

Coventry Huddersfield (A) Cardiff( H) Leeds (H) Southampton (A) Birmingham (A) Ipswich (H) Hull (H) Blackburn (A) Queens Park Rangers (H)

Preston Rotherham (H)Birmingham (A) Watford (A) Huddersfield(H) Norwich (H) Southampton (A) Queens Park Rangers (A) Leicester (H) West Bromwich Albion (A)

Looking at the fixtures it seems unlikely that two teams will run at two points a game across their remaining fixtures because they are either playing each other or teams that have plenty to play for at either end of the table. I think 78 will get us 6th almost 100% of the time and 75 points will get us there most of the time.

[the other AJ]

We just focus on us, 1 game at a time.
Our form is good , despite not playing to our maximum in certain games,
That’s the sign of a team that others won’t want to face,
Onwards and UTA 💙

[The Tank]

Coventry and Preston will do exceptionally well to make 5th or 6th position but by doing so either/or both of them will then be feeling confident in the Play Offs as the "ln form" team.
Coventrys penultimate fixture, in Standaman's typo summary, will be a fix. Reserves v. first team! 

[HampshireBaggie]

There are 5 teams chasing 2 places with the following  fixtures

Coventry Huddersfield (A) Cardiff( H) Leeds (H) Southampton (A) Birmingham (A) Ipswich (H) Hull (H) Coventry (A) Queens Park Rangers (H)

The most interesting fixture from Coventry’s fixtures is Coventry (A). Should be a high scoring affair! 😉

[HampshireBaggie]

I did this assessment in another thread and we need an average of 74 over the last 10 years to get 6th. We’ll easily get that but 78 will be needed for 5th I think.

12 points from 8 games with our fixtures should be easily doable.

[MarkW]

According to Opta, we have the second easiest run in, while Hull and Coventry have the fourth and sixth hardest respectively. Hull have drawn their last four, including a creditable result Vs Leicester, but also throwing away a lead Vs Blues.

The game's not played on paper but we're in pole position for those outside the top 4

[Standaman]

Earlier typo corrected. It also should be noted that Coventry's fixture with Ipswich will be moved to mid week before the final Sunday because they are in the cup semi's. That is potentially a huge fixture with an impact on both automatic promotion and play-offs.

I would also note that the FA cup final is scheduled for the day before the play-off final. So should Coventry make it to the FA Cup final and the play-offs  something would have to give there.

I would also add that for any of the chance for the points total required to be greater than 76 at least one of the chasing teams need to run at 2 or above points per game. Across the last 6 games Norwich and ourselves are the pack isn't.

[mulliganstired]

Game by game, mind the gap.   Norwich on a roll now, I wouldn't settle for less than 80 right now.

[KN22]

I did this assessment in another thread and we need an average of 74 over the last 10 years to get 6th. We’ll easily get that but 78 will be needed for 5th I think.

12 points from 8 games with our fixtures should be easily doable.

Doable, yes. Easily doable, no. Complacency must be guarded against and will be with Carlos I think.

[Tony Goddens Gloves]

I can see 19pts from those set of fixtures. A draw v Millwall and a defeat to Leicester apart from that I can’t see us dropping points

[stoxman]

Hopefully we can get ourselves to the near (if not mathematical) certainty over the 4 matches so we are able to bring back some injured players such as Philips/ Maja, give M’Villa some game time and protect key players from fresh injuries.  It would be great to be able to give the likes of Yokuslu/ Bartley a breather.

[KnaveofAlbion]

An interesting point is that while it will be worse collectively for our hearts and stress levels, we may actually be better served by not being "home and dry" before say a game or two to go.

I'm not sure it's in the interest of the team to be able to hold back (not get injured, etc), as i'm not sure how able they would be to then gear back up for the playoffs?

Just a thought

[alex1]

Having a particular end total of points in mind is irrelevant. It all depends on whether 2 of our rivals can put a long unbeaten run together, or whether they are all inconsistent.
 

[Singhwba]

Is there a chance that the fans/management/even players, might be thinking whether it will be best to finish 5th or 6th?

If we finish 5th, we'll no doubt have to play Southampton twice, but if we finish 6th, it will probably be Ipswich, or so easily could be Leeds.

Hopefully we win all the upcoming 8 games and go into the play offs with momentum.

[Jeremy Roland Peace]

According to Opta, we have the second easiest run in, while Hull and Coventry have the fourth and sixth hardest respectively. Hull have drawn their last four, including a creditable result Vs Leicester, but also throwing away a lead Vs Blues.

The game's not played on paper but we're in pole position for those outside the top 4

no games are easy in this league, it's what makes the championship one of the most exciting leagues in the world in terms of results.

for us i thnk it's more about who we will face in the playoffs (trying not to get ahead of ourselves however).
Southampton for us are the team to avoid as we have 2 losses against them and the style of play seems to be one we can't deal with.

[Sted1990]

no games are easy in this league, it's what makes the championship one of the most exciting leagues in the world in terms of results.

for us i thnk it's more about who we will face in the playoffs (trying not to get ahead of ourselves however).
Southampton for us are the team to avoid as we have 2 losses against them and the style of play seems to be one we can't deal with.

Football is a funny game, those wins will mean little in the play offs. we were the better side at st Mary’s and if we got a well deserved penalty in the home tie then that game changes.
Southampton are my preferred choice.

[WBAinDEVON]

7 points from our next three games should do it. Stoke away, rotherham and sunderland at home

[Dan]

no games are easy in this league, it's what makes the championship one of the most exciting leagues in the world in terms of results.

for us i thnk it's more about who we will face in the playoffs (trying not to get ahead of ourselves however).
Southampton for us are the team to avoid as we have 2 losses against them and the style of play seems to be one we can't deal with.

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from the games in the season. We also took 4 points off both Leeds and Ipswich who've been better teams than Southampton this season. Southampton's defensive issues from the start of the season have come back ever since we played them.

Of course, we still have work to do ourselves to make the play offs and shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves.

[zippyandbungle]

I think any fan base would be exactly like ours and saying “one game at a time” and “don’t do numerical addition of those farm based egg layers yet”
But
We are actually in quite a strong position and not only should we be fine for the top 6…but I can’t see any team looking forward to playing us .
Saints may have beat us twice…third time lucky
Leeds/Ipswich/Leicester whoever doesn’t get autos will need some serious head fixing before putting the boots on again..
And those that finish below us …..well cov are the ones that concern me the most , went to Wembley last season, going again in the fa semi…..if they win that and get to the play off final that’ll be 4 visits in 12 months…that experience alone must be worth something ..

Anyway …with everything considered with ownership, players off form,a stupendous injury list and some rather flat atmospheres at games …..we ain’t done too bad…book the bloody hotels I say.

We’re on our way ……