Author Topic: Guochuan Lai  (Read 2369883 times)

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

NJS

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Offline
  • ****

  • 1387
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7325 on: August 27, 2021, 07:06:36 PM »
Hi RandomBob here, did you see my adverts in the phone box?

Were you the one in the fishnet tights?
Hales Owen born. 
Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has. Rene Descartes

baggie82

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7326 on: August 31, 2021, 01:27:16 PM »
It looks like the transfer window is closing with no more incoming business for us, and Zohore may leave on loan if we can find a professional football club that wants him. Reminder, that this season we are lucky enough to receive a parachute payment of around £45m. Factoring in gate receipts, sponsorship and commercial income our overall income this year is around £55m.

Our wage bill the last time we got relegated from the Premiership dropped from £102 to £52.8m and that was pretty much the high water mark for our wage bill. Last season our wage bill once we got promoted under Bilic including promotion bonus hit £59.7m (circa £40m wages & £20m bonus - paying them back for the flex down).

Since relegation we have lost the loanees (Okay, Diagne) and also released or loaned out Ivanovic, Hegazi, Gibbs, Sawyers, Peltier, Austin, Edwards, Harper, Grosicki, Longergan and of course sold Pereira. We have signed Reach (free), Mowatt (fee), Clarke (loan), Hugill (loan) and Molumby (loan).

Based on what we know I would be amazed if our wage bill was more than £45m at present and I think £40m is more realistic against our income this year of £55m. The point of all of this is that we didn't need to sell Pereira to pay the bills, we could have kept him, instead we have sold him and also not reinvested the money back into the squad.  That might end up costing us promotion, not to mention of course the huge and unaffordable cost we face of trying to sign premier league players of his quality if we do get promoted.

I'm enjoying this season so far but realistic that with the way we are operating we would be relegated easily if we do go up, as this squad cannot compete in the Premiership. At some point the board need to learn that once you get to the premiership you can & must spend more than one years TV income to build the squad up; else you end up at best just bouncing up and down.

tex

  • Youth Baggie

  • Offline
  • ***

  • 425
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7327 on: August 31, 2021, 01:40:43 PM »
This is why statements about looking long term just annoy me. I hope we make it back this season but the scales are tipping further away from championship clubs being able to survive in the PL.

cads_ap_albion

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Offline
  • ****

  • 1696
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7328 on: August 31, 2021, 01:41:56 PM »
Really good post 82 but we have paid a fair whack of compensation to Barnsley.

Mowatt, Castro and Reach would all have signing on fees. Plus three loan fees probably £500k+ each.

There are extra costs associated with covid that would not have been budgeted for.

Those three extra expenditures have got to come from somewhere. Hopefully we have some spare to invest again in January.

The other thing is Val clearly didn't want Pereira and Pereira didn't want to be here the moment he was offered £140kpw.

I can understand Albion's approach although not entirely agree.
Nice one Cyrille, nice one son

WBArgo

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4950
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7329 on: August 31, 2021, 01:47:33 PM »
Really good post 82 but we have paid a fair whack of compensation to Barnsley.

Mowatt, Castro and Reach would all have signing on fees. Plus three loan fees probably £500k+ each.

There are extra costs associated with covid that would not have been budgeted for.

Those three extra expenditures have got to come from somewhere. Hopefully we have some spare to invest again in January.

The other thing is Val clearly didn't want Pereira and Pereira didn't want to be here the moment he was offered £140kpw.

I can understand Albion's approach although not entirely agree.

Agree. In recent years, we've spent big on players like Zohore and Austin which just didn't work. I can see why the owners are trying a cheaper approach. I actually really like the loan + permanent in our favour strategy which I feel only works in our advantage. Hopefully we'll still go up and will have learned from previous lessons about spending big fees. We were at our best when we spent wisely so hopefully it's a return to that era.

SmethDan

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 8569
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7330 on: August 31, 2021, 02:16:04 PM »
.....Our wage bill the last time we got relegated from the Premiership dropped from £102 to £52.8m and that was pretty much the high water mark for our wage bill. Last season our wage bill once we got promoted under Bilic including promotion bonus hit £59.7m (circa £40m wages & £20m bonus - paying them back for the flex down).

Since relegation we have lost the loanees (Okay, Diagne) and also released or loaned out Ivanovic, Hegazi, Gibbs, Sawyers, Peltier, Austin, Edwards, Harper, Grosicki, Longergan and of course sold Pereira. We have signed Reach (free), Mowatt (fee), Clarke (loan), Hugill (loan) and Molumby (loan)........

I don't imagine Sam Allardyce had to get by on peanuts, pints of house white and Bisto gravy granules either........
It doesn't matter how many resources you have.
If you don't know how to use them, they will never be enough.
Oh, and always remember to defecate on those Vile chaps in claret and spew.

baggiejohn

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4632
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7331 on: August 31, 2021, 02:31:00 PM »
It looks like the transfer window is closing with no more incoming business for us, and Zohore may leave on loan if we can find a professional football club that wants him. Reminder, that this season we are lucky enough to receive a parachute payment of around £45m. Factoring in gate receipts, sponsorship and commercial income our overall income this year is around £55m.

Our wage bill the last time we got relegated from the Premiership dropped from £102 to £52.8m and that was pretty much the high water mark for our wage bill. Last season our wage bill once we got promoted under Bilic including promotion bonus hit £59.7m (circa £40m wages & £20m bonus - paying them back for the flex down).

Since relegation we have lost the loanees (Okay, Diagne) and also released or loaned out Ivanovic, Hegazi, Gibbs, Sawyers, Peltier, Austin, Edwards, Harper, Grosicki, Longergan and of course sold Pereira. We have signed Reach (free), Mowatt (fee), Clarke (loan), Hugill (loan) and Molumby (loan).

Based on what we know I would be amazed if our wage bill was more than £45m at present and I think £40m is more realistic against our income this year of £55m. The point of all of this is that we didn't need to sell Pereira to pay the bills, we could have kept him, instead we have sold him and also not reinvested the money back into the squad.  That might end up costing us promotion, not to mention of course the huge and unaffordable cost we face of trying to sign premier league players of his quality if we do get promoted.

I'm enjoying this season so far but realistic that with the way we are operating we would be relegated easily if we do go up, as this squad cannot compete in the Premiership. At some point the board need to learn that once you get to the premiership you can & must spend more than one years TV income to build the squad up; else you end up at best just bouncing up and down.

Assuming that your assumptions are correct, & our income for last season covered our expenditure, where would you get the income from to service the £23 million operating loss the club made in season 2019/20?

As things stand, we have a situation with VI, where "the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts". If that continues, then how do you know that this group of players won't be capable of surviving in the EPL?

Personally, I think the management team have played a blinder this summer window, we've acquired some decent players at low cost (certainly in terms of transfer fees). Added to that they've managed to accumulate some cash to service the losses made in previous seasons. Even if we don't get promoted, we should be in a good place to go again.
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

A wise old owl sat in an oak, the more he saw, the less he spoke
The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

johnny Cash

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 6766
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7332 on: August 31, 2021, 02:42:55 PM »
It looks like the transfer window is closing with no more incoming business for us, and Zohore may leave on loan if we can find a professional football club that wants him. Reminder, that this season we are lucky enough to receive a parachute payment of around £45m. Factoring in gate receipts, sponsorship and commercial income our overall income this year is around £55m.

Our wage bill the last time we got relegated from the Premiership dropped from £102 to £52.8m and that was pretty much the high water mark for our wage bill. Last season our wage bill once we got promoted under Bilic including promotion bonus hit £59.7m (circa £40m wages & £20m bonus - paying them back for the flex down).

Since relegation we have lost the loanees (Okay, Diagne) and also released or loaned out Ivanovic, Hegazi, Gibbs, Sawyers, Peltier, Austin, Edwards, Harper, Grosicki, Longergan and of course sold Pereira. We have signed Reach (free), Mowatt (fee), Clarke (loan), Hugill (loan) and Molumby (loan).

Based on what we know I would be amazed if our wage bill was more than £45m at present and I think £40m is more realistic against our income this year of £55m. The point of all of this is that we didn't need to sell Pereira to pay the bills, we could have kept him, instead we have sold him and also not reinvested the money back into the squad.  That might end up costing us promotion, not to mention of course the huge and unaffordable cost we face of trying to sign premier league players of his quality if we do get promoted.

I'm enjoying this season so far but realistic that with the way we are operating we would be relegated easily if we do go up, as this squad cannot compete in the Premiership. At some point the board need to learn that once you get to the premiership you can & must spend more than one years TV income to build the squad up; else you end up at best just bouncing up and down.

This kind of leads on from a point i made a few days ago.

There was a report leaked in may 2019 from the EFL, multiple places reported it, that stated the average top earner was £29k in the championship. The highest top earner was £69k (obviously Fulham at the time). If we take out that top earner, that average top earner drops to £27k. I cant' imagine that number has gone up post covid. If anything it will have dropped.

Now obviously as an ex-prem club, we would be one of the higher ones, but surely we don't have an entire squad earning what you'd have to be a top earner at other clbus to earn. Not when you consider O'Shea, Furlong, Townsend, Palmer, Button, Clarke, Molumby, Reach, Kipre, and their careers. 

What i mean by their careers, lets take Connor Townsend for example. At scunthorpe on maybe 3k per week and we are interested for £500k. I imagine he'd have joined for the step up let alone any pay rise. Accepitng this is football and he probably did get an increase , maybe we sensibly offer 5k per week and the opportunity.

Since then he has become first choice left back, but we have been relegated too, so even with a new contract (but nobody banging down the door to sign him) he's on well under £20k per week.

However, even if we toss all the above out and we do have 20 players on 27k. That is a £28m wage bill per annum.

We have absolutely cut a lot of cloth and unless Dowling is a bigger fool than I thought our wages surely can't be anything like £40m.

There must be some money about, and i'd agree we didnt have to sell Pereira. At least not financially. Otherwise we seriously need to look at how poor we are at negotiating contacts.




« Last Edit: August 31, 2021, 02:44:39 PM by johnny Cash »

boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7333 on: August 31, 2021, 03:02:38 PM »
His aim to try and stay up on the cheap.  We can't be surprised.  Even though some fans were all "if we get rid of MP then there'll be a really good budget in the transfer kitty", the obvious elephant in the room was how likely is it we'd spend it.  And now we've got our answer.  Looking forward to the "we'll have something to spend in January", "we do better when we spend less on player" and "remember Mulumbu and Odemwingie" arguments now.

Compared to other teams in the division we should be like a top 4 team prem spending vs a relegated team.  Our squad is wafer thin as it is, then you've got to allow for Val's style will really take it out of the players fitness wise, then booking's wise, we've got to be prepared for most of our squad being required at some point this season.

gazberg

  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *******

  • 17243
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7334 on: August 31, 2021, 03:07:45 PM »
Our wages must be drastically lower than 40m. WAAAAAAAAAYYY lower. Should still be plenty of headroom for transfers.

Albionic

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7670
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7335 on: August 31, 2021, 03:55:20 PM »
The objective has to be "get to the prem by spending as little as possible', if we do that we "should" have an amount to spend on strengthening and not paying back an over spend from an expensive promotion.

yes its a gamble, but its a better gamble than throwing everything at promotion and being skint and coming back down immediately. Shades of Norwich, , last season.
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
Albion Family !!!

baggie82

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7336 on: August 31, 2021, 04:03:38 PM »
The objective has to be "get to the prem by spending as little as possible', if we do that we "should" have an amount to spend on strengthening and not paying back an over spend from an expensive promotion.

yes its a gamble, but its a better gamble than throwing everything at promotion and being skint and coming back down immediately. Shades of Norwich, , last season.

It's quite different to Norwich, they kept their squad, management and best players together, save for Buendia who they sold only after getting top dollar for him, after crucially after he helped get them promoted again. We have dismantled our squad and management team twice, sold our only quality premier league player for half of his value and then not reinvested that cash ahead of a long championship campaign.

If we get promoted again then we need a whole new team to have a chance of staying up. Save for Callum Robinson not one of them looks good enough long term to impress in the premiership. We will need to sign a top quality player like Pereira, except it will cost us £35-40m to sign a player of his calibre, which shows how stupid it was to sell him for £17m. If we go up, we won't have the budget next season to compete and are likely to be even further away than we were 12 months ago.


boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7337 on: August 31, 2021, 04:21:31 PM »
The objective has to be "get to the prem by spending as little as possible', if we do that we "should" have an amount to spend on strengthening and not paying back an over spend from an expensive promotion.

yes its a gamble, but its a better gamble than throwing everything at promotion and being skint and coming back down immediately. Shades of Norwich, , last season.

But the less you spend the less likely you are to get promoted.  We sqeaked over the line the last time we were in this division when we could all see where the holes were in the squad - just buying that one, decent, striker would have put us out of reach.  Imagine the same again but this time "Brentford" don't choke.  It only needs a couple of screw ups and we're suddenly stuck in this division and last time we had MP and Diangana firing us to promotion in the first half.

I don't get why the other option is "throwing everything at promotion" - like it's somehow we have to spend nothing at all or "every penny we can lay our hands on".  We *should* be in a position where we can spend some money - we've got parachute payments, gate receipts are back, player sales, offloaded a lot of wages, if we're not in that position now then when will we?  We certainly won't be better off in 12 months time if we don't go up so do we try and scrape by again? 

Really bugs me when people think that doing promotion on the cheap is somehow the better option.  It's only better when you somehow achieve despite not spending much, not because you've not spent much.  Show me a chairman in the land who wouldn't want a cheaper route to promotion.  If doing it cheap was that much the better option then all the other teams in the division(s) below us would be much more competitive.

I think we take it for granted that we'll get out each time we're in this division to be honest.

Albionic

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7670
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7338 on: August 31, 2021, 04:27:25 PM »
It's quite different to Norwich, they kept their squad, management and best players together, save for Buendia who they sold only after getting top dollar for him, after crucially after he helped get them promoted again. We have dismantled our squad and management team twice, sold our only quality premier league player for half of his value and then not reinvested that cash ahead of a long championship campaign.

If we get promoted again then we need a whole new team to have a chance of staying up. Save for Callum Robinson not one of them looks good enough long term to impress in the premiership. We will need to sign a top quality player like Pereira, except it will cost us £35-40m to sign a player of his calibre, which shows how stupid it was to sell him for £17m. If we go up, we won't have the budget next season to compete and are likely to be even further away than we were 12 months ago.

By "shades of" I was trying to imply "on the cheap".  Clearly we were not going to be able to keep manager / squad in place due to mis-management previously. (personally i'm glad Allardyce / Austin / Dowling and others are gone)

Yes we could and should have got more for MP but we didn't, if the change of tack which Ken spoke of with VI and a 4 year contract has any substance at all, we have to believe we are building something not trying to buy a quick fix (which is doomed to fail AGAIN).

Its very early days and there will be big bumps along the way, lets just hope the hierarchy have learned something from their prior mistakes.
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
Albion Family !!!

boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7339 on: August 31, 2021, 04:29:51 PM »
Why would buying a couple of decent players now, to give us the best chance of going up, not be part of building something?

Albionic

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7670
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7340 on: August 31, 2021, 04:32:14 PM »
But the less you spend the less likely you are to get promoted.  We sqeaked over the line the last time we were in this division when we could all see where the holes were in the squad - just buying that one, decent, striker would have put us out of reach.  Imagine the same again but this time "Brentford" don't choke.  It only needs a couple of screw ups and we're suddenly stuck in this division and last time we had MP and Diangana firing us to promotion in the first half.

I don't get why the other option is "throwing everything at promotion" - like it's somehow we have to spend nothing at all or "every penny we can lay our hands on".  We *should* be in a position where we can spend some money - we've got parachute payments, gate receipts are back, player sales, offloaded a lot of wages, if we're not in that position now then when will we?  We certainly won't be better off in 12 months time if we don't go up so do we try and scrape by again? 

Really bugs me when people think that doing promotion on the cheap is somehow the better option.  It's only better when you somehow achieve despite not spending much, not because you've not spent much.  Show me a chairman in the land who wouldn't want a cheaper route to promotion.  If doing it cheap was that much the better option then all the other teams in the division(s) below us would be much more competitive.

I think we take it for granted that we'll get out each time we're in this division to be honest.

Sorry, I just do not agree with that first sentence ! 

If thats true we may as well pack up now, as we will not compete with Fulham / Bournemouth / Boro / Stoke or anyone crazy enough to throw all their cash at promotion. Its simply not how the owners run the club now or in the forseeable future. Have we learned nothing watching Fulhams last 2 seasons ?
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
Albion Family !!!

boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7341 on: August 31, 2021, 05:12:35 PM »
Sorry, I just do not agree with that first sentence ! 

If thats true we may as well pack up now, as we will not compete with Fulham / Bournemouth / Boro / Stoke or anyone crazy enough to throw all their cash at promotion. Its simply not how the owners run the club now or in the forseeable future. Have we learned nothing watching Fulhams last 2 seasons ?

It doesn't mean you definitely won't get promoted, I said "less likely".  Spending money on quality players will give you the best chance of going up - it's just common sense.   Better players cost more, better players will give you a better chance of promotion.

There's 24 clubs in the Championship, the vast majority of them don't spend very much, if what I said wasn't true how come we don't see Luton or something winning the title with ease?

Just to reiterate - it doesn't mean it's impossible to go up without spending much, it also doesn't mean you guarantee promotion by spending a lot but how can spending less give you a better chance of promotion?  Why are clubs spending any money at all when they could spend next to nothing giving themselves a better chance?


Albionic

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7670
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7342 on: August 31, 2021, 05:43:14 PM »
In similar vein, I didnt say spending less gives a better chance, did I ?

i said "get to the prem by spending as little as possible"

We are both guilty of reading what we want to see rather than what was written I'm afraid !
the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
Albion Family !!!

boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7343 on: August 31, 2021, 07:32:56 PM »
I literally said "the less you spend the less likely you are to get promoted" and you said you disagree with that. 

baggie82

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4140
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7344 on: August 31, 2021, 08:11:32 PM »
I literally said "the less you spend the less likely you are to get promoted" and you said you disagree with that.

Obviously your correct Boining_Along, the more money invested in the squad the better calibre of players you can target and better players mean more points. It's a not a coincidence that the clubs that tend to get promoted are the ones with the parachute money and bigger budgets.

baggiejohn

  • Senior Baggie

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 4632
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7345 on: August 31, 2021, 08:37:06 PM »
It seems to me that Valball is more dependant on positional sense than technical ability.

While it's true that players with technical ability command a better price, the same is not necessarily true of players with good positional sense.

Valball looks very agricultural, but, as I understand it, the plan is to get the ball & our attacking players in the opponents final third as quickly & as simply as possible (often from an aerial pass).

I originally thought that we would see us moving in rapid fire triangles to move through defences, but Valball is much more simple than that.

VI has always argued that his main criteria for a player is that they can blend into the team & buy into his philosophy, it might well be he sees that character in some of our younger players

Bearing that in mind, I'm not sure that the argument for acquisition of expensive technical players applies in our case.
If it was easy, it wouldn't be Albion

A wise old owl sat in an oak, the more he saw, the less he spoke
The less he spoke the more he heard, why aren't we like that wise old bird?

Albionic

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 7670
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7346 on: August 31, 2021, 09:25:36 PM »
Obviously your correct Boining_Along, the more money invested in the squad the better calibre of players you can target and better players mean more points. It's a not a coincidence that the clubs that tend to get promoted are the ones with the parachute money and bigger budgets.

better calibre of players you can target and better players mean more points.

does it though ?
So Barca should have won the Champs league year after year after year
Man City should win the Prem every year, erm Liverpool / erm Leicester ...

What is the point of managers / coaching staff / medical teams etc, etc,   Just spend more and win everything its that simple is it ??

the road to the summit has dips, keep the faith when navigating those dips !!
Albion Family !!!

Droitwich Baggie

  • Site Donator
  • WBA Manager

  • Offline
  • *****

  • 14354
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7347 on: August 31, 2021, 11:28:01 PM »
Just a dead beat, who was hoping to make money

boinging_along

  • WBA Coach

  • Offline
  • ******

  • 7173
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7348 on: August 31, 2021, 11:42:49 PM »
better calibre of players you can target and better players mean more points.

does it though ?
So Barca should have won the Champs league year after year after year
Man City should win the Prem every year, erm Liverpool / erm Leicester ...

What is the point of managers / coaching staff / medical teams etc, etc,   Just spend more and win everything its that simple is it ??

There's still work to do of course, like I said, it's no guarantee, better managers\coaching staff\medical teams will all increase your chance of winning (and the big clubs with the best facilities are again spending more on those very things).  But look at what City, Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, etc all spend, now compare that to the teams who have just come up.  If the "spend more, get more" wasn't true then the Premier League would be a free for all every season and not just the same few teams at the top.  Apart from Leicester (which was shocked the footballing world it was so unlikely) you've got to go back to 1995 for a non current "big club" to have won the league when Blackburn did it, 26 years ago.  And then you've got Leeds in 92, a massive run of Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton and then back to 81 when Villa won it.  Football was very different 40 years ago.

Or look at the FA Cup, even in a competition that has a knock out element to it (and so luck of the draw plays a part), and it's possible that in a one off match a lower division team can sink a higher one, since Wimbledon's "Crazy Gang" won it in the mid 80's, there's been Everton, Portsmouth and Wigan that have won it, that's it. 

Put it this way as an extreme example.  Build a team of players worth £1m, and now build a team of players worth £100m and pit them against each other.  Who do you think would win?

I realise that some of us want to see the club through rose tinted lenses, but we've got to be realistic, by relying on nominal fees and loans we're making promotion a much bigger challenge than we need to.  I refuse to believe that with the parachute payments, player sales, gate receipts being back, tv money, wage bill reductions that we're broke as a club and will be out spent by other championship teams.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2021, 11:45:22 PM by boinging_along »

liverbaggie

  • Reserve Baggie

  • Offline
  • ****

  • 2254
Re: Guochuan Lai
« Reply #7349 on: September 01, 2021, 08:36:43 AM »
Why do the club have to spend money just to suit you mate?
 We are top of the league
We have good players with an interesting manager who has a plan
As I've said before we can almost balance our books now, ready for promotion
How good is that?