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« on: May 07, 2024, 11:27:29 AM »
Controversial opinion time! Also apologies it's so long!
I don't think a striker is a priority. We have two or four strikers on our books next season (depending on how you categorise BTA and Grant) and while you might rightly criticise BTA especially with not being clinical enough, I don't think that is a key concern.
Why?
Because as a team we don't create enough good quality chances.
This year we scored 67 goals, enough to rank 9th in the league. According to Opta, we scored 14 set pieces goals, which was joint 6th best, four penalties (joint 5th) meaning we scored only 49 open play goals, which is actually 12th in the league.
But Mark, I hear you cry, having a better striker would mean we finish more chances, so we score more open play goals! This is definitely true - having clinical players means you convert more of your chances into goals.
But as a team, we have the joint highest goals per shot, and outright highest goals per shot on target. So in general as a team, we are actually very clinical. BTA does have a lower goals per shot than other members of the squad - he's tied in 7th alongside Wallace, Swift and Bartley. Unsurprisingly Johnston and Fellows are 2nd and 3rd - their introduction into the team since January has seen them contribute 11 goals from 40 shots. Calls for Weimann to be on the bench could be warranted - he has 2 goals from 10 shots.
So why am I saying it's not a striker issue if BTA isn't as clinical as other members of the team, or other strikers in the league?
Because as a team, we just don't create enough quality chances. If you like xG, then being 11th in the xG table should give you some context. If you don't like xG, then we were 19th in shots this season. We took over 100 fewer shots than the clubs who finished above us in the league. I'm not generally a fan of taking pot-shots - the stats tend to suggest it's not a good strategy for success - but there is a definite problem with chance creation.
Another good way of looking at this is by looking at some case studies of other teams. Blackburn had the league's top goalscorers in Sammie Szmodics, who outscored his xG by a good margin to score 27 goals (xG of 22.3, 144 shots). Their next highest goalscorers got 5 a-piece from 34 and 25 shots. League winners Leicester had three players score above ten goals:
Vardy - 18 goals (4 pens), xG 17.1, 53 shots
Mavididi - 12 goals (2 pens), xG 9.1, 88 shots
Dewsbury-Hall - 12 goals (1 pen, 6 free kicks), xG 10.2, 87 shots
BTA - 11 goals (1 pen), xG 12.7, 73 shots
Swift - 9 goals (3 pens), xG 5.8, 43 shots
Diangana - 7 goals, xG 5.4, 42 shots
Johnston - 7 goals, xG 3.0, 23 shots
You can see that in general our players just didn't have the same number of shooting opportunities, and so it's no surprise we haven't scored as many. It also shows that Vardy is still a very clinical striker.
Of course being able to finish more of the few chances we create would help, but clinical goalscorers are a rare and usually expensive commodity, so if there is a tactical change to facilitate that, then it would certainly be much cheaper. Equally, other areas of the pitch are usually cheaper than strikers.
So where would I prioritise? Central midfield looks very light - only Molumby and Yokuslu are under contract next season, and neither can fill the role Mowatt has played. If Kipré leaves then his passing will definitely be missed, and I think we can all agree that left back should be an area of focus. Although it might be counter-intuitive, I would be looking at stabilising the defence first.
Remember when I said we scored 14 set pieces goals? We also conceded 15, which is joint 2nd worst! But the flip side is we conceded the 2nd lowest for open play goals (29), so we've been a really good defensive outfit when the ball is in play, but actually very vulnerable from dead balls. Given how few goals we conceded from open play, if we could tighten up the set pieces, our defence would be nigh on impenetrable.
It's hard to know if our lack of creativity is a tactical choice from Corberan - prioritising defensive stability over allowing players freedom - or whether it's a personnel issue, with players either unable to spot passes or perhaps taking too many touches and not getting a shot off. I feel like Corberan likes us to play with very rehearsed set patterns of play - lots of third man runs and cut backs into the box. Is it a tempo issue? I do think we can be too ponderous at times, even allowing for us to try and bait a press and attack the space in behind. Ultimately, it's a systemic issue and not an issue that can be fixed with the acquisition of one single player.
Tl;Dr - our goalscoring problems aren't just down to BTA not being clinical enough, as a team we don't create enough chances, and I am unsure if a new striker will fix that.
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